What I'm watching for in Virginia on Tuesday | No. 168 — October 31, 2021

The governor’s race will be a good test of the impacts of education polarization on partisan turnout in off-year elections

Happy Sunday, all. Thanks for joining me for another issue. In this week’s email I preview the most important potential takeaway from the race for Virginia’s next governor on Tuesday and go over some of my articles on the fight over Build Back Better, geographic polarization since 1872, and the future of the Democratic Party.

First up: Virginians go to the polls on Tuesday to elect their next governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and all members of the state’s lower legislative chamber. The governor’s race, which has naturally sucked up most of the national media attention to Tuesday’s contests, is looking like a pure toss-up. As I wrote for The Economist this past Thursday, it looks like Terry McAuliffe (the Democratic candidate) had a clear edge until a few weeks ago, but the momentum now is clearly with Glenn Youngkin (the Republican). I wouldn’t bet either way.

There will be much to learn from the results of the contest. For one, since vote swings from the last governor’s…