What the special election in Tennessee says about the 2026 midterms

Republicans held a Trump +22 seat — but by only 9 points. A swing half as large would give Democrats the U.S. House in 2026, and put the Senate clearly in play

Voters in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District voted on Tuesday, Dec. 2, to fill a vacancy left by Republican representative Mark Green, who resigned from Congress in July 2025. The election for this rural seat went for Republican candidate Matt Van Epps over Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn, with Van Epps having a 9-point margin in the vote as of 10:30 PM ET on Dec. 2. Some ballots are still being counted.

While Republicans held the seat, Van Epps’ 9-point margin is a significant shift to the left since 2024. Green won the seat by 21 points in 2024, and Donald Trump carried it by 22 points over Kamala Harris. Behn’s 9-point loss is a 13-point shift toward Democrats in a little under a year. The fact that a rural Tennessee district ended up just a high-single-digits win for Republicans should be a five-alarm fire for the party ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Specials keep pointing to a big Dem. win in 2026

Zooming out, the election on Tuesday confirms a broader trend in recent special elect…