Republicans held a Trump +22 seat — but by only 9 points. A swing half as large would give Democrats the U.S. House in 2026, and put the Senate clearly in play
I've been pessimistic about Iowa's statewide races in 2026, because of the enormous GOP voter registration advantage here. But I am bullish on Democratic prospects in IA-03 and IA-03, and I absolutely think IA-02 (an open seat because Ashley Hinson is running for Senate) would be in play, depending on the GOP nominee.
How worried is GOP incumbent Zach Nunn (who won IA-03 by less than 1 percent in 2022 and by 4 points in 2024)? He is now co-sponsoring a bipartisan bill to extend ACA premium subsidies for two years.
A lot of money spent on this election, particularly by Democrats. Sooner or later one of these deep red seats really will flip, as Trump's popularity continues to crater, and as Dems find more strong candidates to run who don't turn out to have an exploitable weakness (as Aftyn Behr did, after clips from her podcast got into the republican attack ads).
Republicans will always find something to exploit, and they spent more money on this race than the Democrats, most of it at the last minute. It's what they do to distract voters. Hats off to Astyn Behn for running such a strong race.
I've been pessimistic about Iowa's statewide races in 2026, because of the enormous GOP voter registration advantage here. But I am bullish on Democratic prospects in IA-03 and IA-03, and I absolutely think IA-02 (an open seat because Ashley Hinson is running for Senate) would be in play, depending on the GOP nominee.
How worried is GOP incumbent Zach Nunn (who won IA-03 by less than 1 percent in 2022 and by 4 points in 2024)? He is now co-sponsoring a bipartisan bill to extend ACA premium subsidies for two years.
A lot of money spent on this election, particularly by Democrats. Sooner or later one of these deep red seats really will flip, as Trump's popularity continues to crater, and as Dems find more strong candidates to run who don't turn out to have an exploitable weakness (as Aftyn Behr did, after clips from her podcast got into the republican attack ads).
Republicans will always find something to exploit, and they spent more money on this race than the Democrats, most of it at the last minute. It's what they do to distract voters. Hats off to Astyn Behn for running such a strong race.
I wish she had done as well as Doug Jones winning Alabama in 2017, but I guess we can’t draw a Roy Moore in every race.