How early is too early to look at midterm polls?
Early generic ballot polls are directionally useful, but the party out of power historically gains ground between now and November
A reader named Dan writes in with a question that’s been on my mind, too:
I’m curious about the reports of Republicans who have “soft” support for the party. Where I live, there’s a decent number of people who are registered Republicans because they view that party as the ruling party and they think their vote has more impact.
Is there any data on how much public sentiment swings in the month or so before an election? We get a lot of polling data for years leading up to an election but it seems like it can all change rapidly in the 3-4 weeks prior to the actual elections. Just wondering if there are any studies along those lines?
My reply: Yes, there is data on “how much public sentiment swings in the month or so before an election.” But I want to zoom out a little, not focusing just on the last 30 days of an election cycle, but the whole year leading up to it. Today we’ll answer the question: How early is too early to look at midterm polls?
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