Voters say they’ll blame Republicans more for a government shutdown

52% of U.S. adults agree with Democrats refusing to sign a funding bill unless Republicans restore health care spending to pre-OBBB levels

Two programming notes: First, I’m up at Harvard today to speak about polls and prediction markets at a conference for election analysts, presumably with many people who read this newsletter in attendance. Let me know if you’re here so I can say hi!

Second, if everything goes according to plan, I should have a long video podcast with Paul Krugman to post on here tomorrow (Saturday). He asks me about Trump’s polls, the electoral environment, public opinion on free speech and illiberalism, and other assorted topics. I hope you’ll tune in!

Today’s Chart of the Week is a look at the latest polling on the looming shutdown of the federal government. Let’s get to it…