Trump has lost working-class whites
New race-by-income data shows Trump's approval has cratered among the working-class voters he gained in 2024. The war in Iran underscores his challenges
Since the U.S. launched a war against Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, the national average price of a gallon of gasoline has climbed from $2.93 to $3.72, according to AAA. That is the highest price in over a year, and a 27% increase compared to the same time last year. Americans are witnessing the largest month-to-month spike in gas prices we’ve seen in 30 years.
Meanwhile, new data from the University of Michigan’s monthly Survey of Consumers shows consumer sentiment cratering to an index value of to 55.5 in March, with survey director Joanne Hsu correlating the decline with higher inflation expectations in interviews conducted after the strikes. This chart shows people are getting really worried about gas prices in particular, but also inflation in general:
And gas is just the latest blow. The February jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed payrolls declined by 92,000 — the third time in five months that the economy has shed jobs. This month, unemployment ticked up to 4.44% (dangerously close to rounding to 5%). Year-over-year CPI is running hotter, and that’s before you account for (a) the fact that the BLS changed data sources for legal services last month, leading to an artificially lower inflation reading or (b) the full impacts the war with Iran will have on everything from food to building materials.
“On day one, we’re bringing prices down,” Donald Trump promised crowds throughout 2024. But every major piece of data we have on prices is going in the opposite direction.
New national data from the Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds that as Trump’s policies are making voters’ lives more expensive — not less — they’re turning on him fast. As I wrote on March 10, the voters Trump gained in 2024 are now his worst defectors.
In this week’s Deep Dive, I explore additional race-by-income data on Trump’s approval, showing you how the president has lost ground — particularly with the white and Hispanic working-class voters he promised his presidency would rescue.
Trump is shedding support among working-class whites and Latinos
To measure how Trump’s working-class coalition is holding up, I pooled Strength In Numbers/Verasight national poll data from May 2025 through February 2026 and generated race-by-income crosstabs comparing each group’s 2024 vote margin to their current net approval of Trump. The results are shown in the plot below.
