New poll: Americans oppose cuts to Medicaid, want Democrats to control the U.S. House
...and Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 rematch. Results from the inaugural Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll
This post contains results from the inaugural Strength In Numbers/Verasight U.S. politics poll. Click the button below to share. Follow this link to submit a question for our poll next month. You must be a subscriber to Strength In Numbers for your submission to be valid.
Summary
Americans broadly disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president and favor Democratic U.S. House candidates for the 2026 midterms by 6 points, a new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds. In a survey experiment, support for the president's immigration agenda falls when respondents are informed of mistaken deportations, such as the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia.
Adults say the economy and inflation are their top priorities, but do not think either party is prioritizing the issues enough. A majority opposes making budget cuts to social programs, such as Medicaid, in order to extend tax cuts and shrink the deficit. If the 2024 election were held today and non-voters were allowed to participate, the electorate would lean toward Kamala Harris over Donald Trump by 5 points, 47% to 42%.
Methodology note: Verasight conducted this poll among 1,000 U.S. adult residents from May 1-6, 2025. It has a margin of error of 3.2%. The survey was weighted to match the political and demographic characteristics of the U.S. adult population according to the March 2025 Current Population Survey, as well as recent benchmarks for partisanship and past vote.
Verasight uses mail, SMS text, and the internet to recruit a sample using both probability-based and non-probability techniques. Verasight handled recruitment, interviewing, and weighting. Strength In Numbers had input on questions but did not participate in other methodological decisions, and conducted all analysis, including creating the topline document.
You can download a PDF of the poll results and a full methodology statement at the bottom of this page.
Trump is underwater on all issues except the border
Our new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds that just 40% of respondents approve of the job Trump has done as president so far, with 21% “strongly” approving and 19% “somewhat” approving. But a majority of 56% disapprove of the president’s job performance, including a particularly high 42% of respondents who say they strongly disapprove. The strong disapprove percentage alone is higher than the president’s overall approval, reflecting that the group of Americans intensely opposed to Trump is much larger than his core base of support.
Our results are more negative for Trump than the average poll, but not to a statistically significant degree. They are a close match to other high-quality polls of U.S. adults, reflecting potential population and mode effects across surveys.
When broken down by policy area, Trump’s net approval remains negative across most domains. He trails by the widest margin on prices and inflation, where just 31% approve and 63% disapprove of the president's job performance (a -32 point net rating). Trump fares only slightly better on jobs and the economy, with a -17 point net rating (38% approve, 55% disapprove). Trump is also underwater on foreign policy (-16 points), health care (-16 points), and education (-15 points).
Trump has spent much time on trade and government funding, announcing (and then rolling back) historic tariffs on U.S. trade partners and encouraging the Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk, to slash spending. On both of these issues, the president is underwater. Just 36% support the way he has handled "trade with other countries," while 57% disapprove, for example, and adults are split similarly over "government funding and social programs" (-20) and "Managing the federal government workforce” (-12).
One issue bucks this trend: immigration. Overall, Trump is underwater on immigration by 2 points (47% approve, 49% disapprove) while he has a large lead on border security (52% approve, 42% disapprove). Border security is the only domain where Trump has a positive net approval rating.
Democrats lead on House generic ballot, but evenly matched on trust to handle issues
Democrats hold a 47% to 41% lead on the generic ballot for local House of Representatives elections in 2026, while 12% remain undecided. This 6-point advantage is a modest improvement for the party compared to other polls in recent months.
However, despite Trump's low approval rating and the Democrats' strong generic ballot results, the party holds only slim advantages in voters' trust to handle individual issues.
In our new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll, Democrats edge out Republicans on the problems respondents say are the two most important problems facing the nation. On jobs and the economy, 41% of adults say they trust the Democrats to handle the issue more than Republicans, while 39% say they trust the GOP more. Democrats also hold a slight lead on inflation, 38% to 37%.
Democrats hold a solid advantage on government funding and social programs (48% to 35%), and on education and health care (each 46% for the Democrats to mid-30s for Republicans). These issues combine for 17% of adults' most important problems.
Republicans maintain a sizable lead on immigration: 46% of adults trust Republicans more to handle the issue, versus 33% who favor Democrats. The GOP is also expectedly strong on border security (50% to 29%) and deportations (45% to 34%).
On foreign policy, the parties tie at 40% each, while managing the federal workforce is nearly even (40% Democratic to 39% Republican).
Overall, 42% of respondents say they would trust the Democratic Party to do a better job at handling whichever issue they selected as the “most important problem facing the nation today,”, while 38% say Republicans would do a better job. Those differences are within the margin of error for each percentage.
The public sees parties as not focusing on their priorities
Inflation emerges as the public’s top concern: 33% of respondents name prices/inflation as the most important problem facing the country today. That is followed, in a distant second, by jobs and the economy (15%). Health care and social spending trail at 7% each, while immigration, border security, and deportations each register in the single digits.
But adults generally do not see the parties as focusing on these issues. Respondents said they thought the Democrats cared most about social programs (29%) and “other issues” (13%), with just 12% naming jobs and the economy, and 8% inflation as the area "the Democratic Party generally cares most about."
When respondents were asked what issue they thought the Democrats cared about most, 116 respondents gave their own description. Responses mentioned issues such as diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives ("DEI AND SOCIALISM") and corruption ("they only care about their party and filling their own pocketbooks" as well as democracy ("Defending democracy") and gender issues ("trans surgery").
Republicans do not fare much better in terms of matching the public’s issue priorities. In total 45% of adults say they think the Republican Party cares most about immigration, border security, and deportations, with only 14% and 6% picking jobs/the economy and prices/inflation.
Respondents who gave their own description of the Republicans' most important problem often mentioned wealth and taxation ("tax cuts for the ultra rich" and "Putting money in their own pockets") and President Trump ("Worshipping their God-Emperor Donald Trump" and "MAGA").
The public feels economic turmoil, and most blame Trump
On April 30, 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated that Gross Domestic Product in America shrank in the first quarter of 2025. Our poll reveals voters are worrying about the economy and feeling the financial pinch at home.
On economic perceptions, a majority (53%) say the nation’s economy is worse now than a year ago, with only 25% believing it has improved. Opinions on personal finances are somewhat less dire: 42% of adults reported that their own financial situation is about the same as last year, while 36% say personal conditions have gotten worse, and only 19% feel better off.
Americans mostly think the president has made their problems worse, not better. We asked voters the question, "Do you think Donald Trump’s policy decisions have made the economy better or worse since being inaugurated as president?"
A majority (56%) say they think President Trump's policy decisions have made the economy worse, while 22% say he has made things better. 15% say the impact of his policies is neutral, and 7% said "don't know" or "not sure."
Survey experiment: Highlighting the Kilmar Abrego Garcia case reduces support for deportations
At first glance, Trump appears strong on immigration. Across our whole sample, when adults were asked if they support deporting all immigrants who entered the country illegally "back to their home country," 44% say yes and 38% say no.
However, for half of our sample, we asked support for deporting all undocumented immigrants after we presented respondents with information regarding a case of mistaken deportation, specifically the high-profile removal of a Maryland resident and undocumented immigrant named Kilmar Abrego Garcia. When respondents were primed with this information, support for blanket deportations fell to 39%, with 43% opposed.
The group of respondents who saw our question about Kilmar Abrego Garcia second supported blanket deportations by 16 points, 49% to 33%. Exposing voters to information about Garcia reduced net support for deporting all undocumented immigrants by 20 percentage points ( [(49% - 33%) - (39% - 43%)] ). An effect size of this magnitude roughly matches the total decline in Trump’s approval rating on deportations since early March, according to YouGov.
When respondents were asked if they supported deporting undocumented immigrants who have protection orders from a U.S. judge because of verifiable asylum claims, such as in the case of Abrego Garcia, 49% said they opposed the deportation, and 29% said they supported it. 22% were unsure.
On a related deportation scenario, 45% believe the U.S. should facilitate the return of wrongly removed immigrants, while 35% favor keeping them abroad. A majority (54%) oppose the president’s authority to revoke visas of international students based on their speech, reflecting concerns over free expression among college students, particularly in regards to Israel and Palestine.
Our poll reveals substantial support for the president being able to transport U.S. citizens who have been convicted of violent crimes to foreign prisons (a power the president does not possess). 44% of voters said the president should "be able to deport citizens convicted of violent crimes," while 41% disapproved.
It takes time and resources to write polls and analyze data accurately, especially with special features like this experiment. Consider becoming a paying member of the Strength In Numbers community to keep work like this public.
Broad opposition to cuts for social services
Our poll also finds Americans are starkly opposed to the Republicans' current budget proposal for 2026, which would dramatically reduce spending on public health care programs such as Medicaid (resulting in millions losing their health care) in order to extend Donald Trump's 2017 tax cuts, some of which are set to expire this year. Extending the cuts would decrease government revenue, increasing the budget deficit if legislators do not cut to services.
Asked about the bill, we gave respondents three options to resolve the budget situation:
"Extend tax cuts but keep spending constant, increasing the deficit."
"Raise taxes on corporations and high-income families to keep spending and pay down the deficit."
"Decrease spending on social services, such as education, health care, and food for the poor, so Congress can extend Trump’s tax cuts."
The public overwhelmingly picked the second option — Raising taxes on corporations and high earners to pay for services. 58% support raising taxes to maintain current levels of spending and reduce deficits, versus just 10% who favor extending tax cuts while increasing the deficit, and 14% who would decrease social service spending.
Relatedly, 43% say cuts under Donald Trump and Elon Musk's "Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)" initiative have "not been worth it", compared to 36% who say they have been worth it.
Americans are roughly equally split on support for foreign aid programs, such as for AIDS and Tuberculosis prevention.
Harris wins in a hypothetical 2024 do-over
This topic was submitted by a subscriber to Strength In Numbers. Follow this link to submit a question for our poll next month. You must be a subscriber to Strength In Numbers for your submission to be valid.
In a hypothetical 2024 rematch election, 40% of adults — including non-voters — say they would vote for Kamala Harris, and 36% for Donald Trump, with just 1% undecided. Harris holds a particularly large lead in a hypothetical rematch among people who report not voting in 2024, 36% to 22% (43% say they still would not vote). Even when limited to those who say they did vote, Trump's support is lower than in 2024 at a 43-43 tie.
Removing people who say they would not vote, Harris leads a 2024 re-do by 5 percentage points, 47 to 42%.
As a whole, this poll paints a picture of an electorate dissatisfied with the president’s overall performance and deeply concerned about inflation and economic malaise, yet still divided on core partisan issues like immigration and social spending. Voters do not trust the major parties to handle the country’s most pressing problems.
With control of Congress up for grabs in 2026, voters look to be leaning toward Democrats, and disproportionately regret voting for Trump in 2024. But Republicans retain a strong base of support and are not down and out yet.
Download the complete topline document and a full methodological statement below.
Cross-tabs and select questions held for future release.
Too bad that elections have a no refund no return policy
I’ll never forgive the nation for giving Trump a second chance to destroy us.