Intro
Welcome to the Strength In Numbers Election Day live blog! This page is your one-stop shop for all things data-driven commentary on Election Day 2026.
A few links and reminders for you:
First, my last pre-election dispatch for SIN is here. The final word in terms of pre-election expectations is that if the polls and early vote forecasts are anywhere close to right, we’re in for a big blue wave, verging on a tsunami, which would flip at least the House and probably (though not guaranteed) the Senate from Republican to Democratic control. But it would take a normal-sized polling error for Republicans to hold the Senate — see our interactive chart here — which would not be that surprising given recent misses. And hey, for what it’s worth, polls could also understate Democrats — it happened as recently as 2022!
Second, join us on Discord if you’re a paying subscriber. Discord is an app that puts you in a forum/chat room/community with other paying members of Strength In Numbers, which you can access and post from on your phone or web browser. Details on how to set this up are here.
I will be posting insights below throughout the day for those paying subscribers who do not want to make an account on Discord. But you’ll have to open this page in your internet browser and refresh it throughout the day.
Finally, as Election Day turns to Election Night, join us at 6:45 PM Eastern for the joint The Downballot x Strength In Numbers livestream of commentary and results analysis. We did this with some of the special and gubernatorial elections in 2025, and it was a lot of fun. We’ll be streaming on Substack Live and on YouTube, with absolutely no commercials. Read here for more details.
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So hey!
It’s Election Day! Congrats, we made it! This is it; this is why we get up in the morning; this is what we do.
Without further ado, on with the live blog. I’m heading out of the house to vote shortly (my polling place is a five-minute walk from my front door), and when I get back, I will start tracking things and updating posts here.
Elliott
Live blog posts
(Posts will be added in reverse chronological order. Refresh this page and come back to this position on the page for the latest post. You can share each individual entry by hovering your mouse next to a date stamp, and clicking the link icon that appears to the left.)
Because this live blog will contain some content I will also inevitably share on or borrow from the subscribers-only Discord, this post has to be limited to paying subscribers.
A paying subscription to Strength In Numbers helps pay for things like original polling data, access to voter files for early voting forecasts and extra bespoke analysis, and funds my time spent on this project. Paying subscribers get access to a private community of like-minded readers on Discord and be sent additional exclusive premium analysis at least once weekly. One day, your support may even help Strength In Numbers grow into a bigger, multi-person business!
If you believe in the values of data and democracy — that there is, ahem, strength in numbers — please sign up to get free emails from this publication and consider becoming a paying subscriber to support my mission. Supporting members of this community keep Strength In Numbers running by supporting the time and data collection it takes to do analyses like this one.
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3:11 PM: A quick level-set about how much early data matters
I want to caution you about reading too much into the early turnout reports. Yes, I’ve been covering them all day, but that’s because this is the only information available right now. Here’s how you should take in this new information and update your pre-election forecasts:
