In our new poll, 13% of Donald Trump's 2024 voters say they regret their vote last cycle. In a hypothetical redo, Kamala Harris wins by nearly 3 points.
I am a big fan and recommend your newsletter all the time, but in this case, I think you are torturing the data a bit. Frankly, given the number of Trump voters who claimed to have voted for him for economic reasons, I'm surprised and dismayed that the number of defections isn't higher. If this polling is really representative, then it says to me that the people who most matter are the ones who didn't vote at all. Of course, it's early days (relatively), it may be hard for them to admit that they were wrong, and if Trump continues to tank the economy for the next six months, the number may be higher.
If the people who voted for Biden in 2020, but didn't turn out to vote in 2024, were added to the projection, Harris' popular vote margin would be even larger. The Electoral College problem would remain, and turnout in those states differed from most of the others, leaving Musk and others' money influence to corrupt our democracy.
I'd be fine with that, but in my liberal neighborhood I haven't seen a Harris bumper sticker in a year or more. We just took off our Obama sticker, and still see those around. Call it qualitative but I think she's been written off.
Work-Life balance is also difficult in the insane political times in which we are living. It's not my job to stay so plugged into everything, but I have to remind myself not to feel guilty when I take off an afternoon to work on family history on Ancestry instead of reading all the Substack posts that fill my in-box.
I'm not sure that I understand "regretful" Harris voters, unless they are expressing regret that the Democratic candidate was not determined in the usual manner of primaries.
We dream of what might have been, but we are where we are. This polling points out the importance of political strategies that bring in the widest group of people.
Elliott — you should devote a post to Max Raskin’s op-ed in this morning’s Washington Post in which he argues that prediction markets are more accurate than polls in predicting political outcomes. He cites some specific articles in journals like the Journal of Economic Perspectives supporting his argument.
Hi Jack. I read his post. It was unduly boosterish in my opinion — not least because the headline empirical chart compared betting market probabilities with vote shares in polls without transforming them to the same scale!!
I agree that it was obviously boosterish. But because it cited articles by respected economists like Justin Wolfers, I thought it might gain traction and deserved a detailed response, including reviewing the articles he cites and showing how they have been either misinterpreted or suffered from design weaknesses.
Oh man, you gotta take care of you, boo. Family is important. Your own work life balance and sanity are important. Rest is important. Enjoy your Saturday!!
My wife, who has tried to keep her sanity by ignoring Trump, finally summed it up after reading today's news in the NYTs and on her phone; "What a disgusting human being...except for the human being part".
And trying to spread yourself too thin trying to create content for us is going to deplete your vital stores of "here it comes...just don't say anything!" self-control, required for dealing with certain family members. Because every family has one or more!
Really interesting. And thanks for the breakdown by demographics. I'm sure there aren't data to show how this would have impacted the electoral college. Seems likely our retrograde system would still have made trump president again. And enjoy the time off.
As a paying subscriber, I’d be happy with you just stipulating that you will produce X1 amount of work in a year and will take X2 days or weeks off. And X2 should not be too stingy—we should all have more time off.
Hi, Elliott,
I am a big fan and recommend your newsletter all the time, but in this case, I think you are torturing the data a bit. Frankly, given the number of Trump voters who claimed to have voted for him for economic reasons, I'm surprised and dismayed that the number of defections isn't higher. If this polling is really representative, then it says to me that the people who most matter are the ones who didn't vote at all. Of course, it's early days (relatively), it may be hard for them to admit that they were wrong, and if Trump continues to tank the economy for the next six months, the number may be higher.
GEM, take the time you need. Take more than the time you need--a work/life balance is important, especially in your stressful line of work!
If the people who voted for Biden in 2020, but didn't turn out to vote in 2024, were added to the projection, Harris' popular vote margin would be even larger. The Electoral College problem would remain, and turnout in those states differed from most of the others, leaving Musk and others' money influence to corrupt our democracy.
This is the bull case for Harris 2028.
I'd be fine with that, but in my liberal neighborhood I haven't seen a Harris bumper sticker in a year or more. We just took off our Obama sticker, and still see those around. Call it qualitative but I think she's been written off.
Can you comment on whether the data shows that Democrats are winning in very Republican places because independents are breaking for them overwhelmingly, or Republicans are starting to vote for Democrats as Bitecofer suggests in her substack today https://thecycle.substack.com/p/so-much-winning?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web. Thank you
Work-Life balance is also difficult in the insane political times in which we are living. It's not my job to stay so plugged into everything, but I have to remind myself not to feel guilty when I take off an afternoon to work on family history on Ancestry instead of reading all the Substack posts that fill my in-box.
I'm not sure that I understand "regretful" Harris voters, unless they are expressing regret that the Democratic candidate was not determined in the usual manner of primaries.
We dream of what might have been, but we are where we are. This polling points out the importance of political strategies that bring in the widest group of people.
Elliott — you should devote a post to Max Raskin’s op-ed in this morning’s Washington Post in which he argues that prediction markets are more accurate than polls in predicting political outcomes. He cites some specific articles in journals like the Journal of Economic Perspectives supporting his argument.
Hi Jack. I read his post. It was unduly boosterish in my opinion — not least because the headline empirical chart compared betting market probabilities with vote shares in polls without transforming them to the same scale!!
I agree that it was obviously boosterish. But because it cited articles by respected economists like Justin Wolfers, I thought it might gain traction and deserved a detailed response, including reviewing the articles he cites and showing how they have been either misinterpreted or suffered from design weaknesses.
Take a break! We all need one so we can keep going. Appreciate your data, insights and analysis that are so important. Now more than ever. Thank you!
Oh man, you gotta take care of you, boo. Family is important. Your own work life balance and sanity are important. Rest is important. Enjoy your Saturday!!
Take time off when you need it. Rest is important to keep doing the vital work you are doing. We don't want you to burn out. Stay healthy!
My wife, who has tried to keep her sanity by ignoring Trump, finally summed it up after reading today's news in the NYTs and on her phone; "What a disgusting human being...except for the human being part".
Get everyone you know out to No Kings tomorrow.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
do your family event. And thanks for the greater information on "regret" voters.
And trying to spread yourself too thin trying to create content for us is going to deplete your vital stores of "here it comes...just don't say anything!" self-control, required for dealing with certain family members. Because every family has one or more!
Really interesting. And thanks for the breakdown by demographics. I'm sure there aren't data to show how this would have impacted the electoral college. Seems likely our retrograde system would still have made trump president again. And enjoy the time off.
You missed a poll-- among people who didn't vote, do they regret not voting? And both whom would they have voted for and whom they would vote for now?
You’re right, my oversight, I should have broken down for non-voters too. I’ll do an update on this article soon
As a paying subscriber, I’d be happy with you just stipulating that you will produce X1 amount of work in a year and will take X2 days or weeks off. And X2 should not be too stingy—we should all have more time off.
Absolutely take time off. Your boss needs to understand that we all need time away from the job!