In our new poll, 13% of Donald Trump's 2024 voters say they regret their vote last cycle. In a hypothetical redo, Kamala Harris wins by nearly 3 points.
Work-Life balance is also difficult in the insane political times in which we are living. It's not my job to stay so plugged into everything, but I have to remind myself not to feel guilty when I take off an afternoon to work on family history on Ancestry instead of reading all the Substack posts that fill my in-box.
I'm not sure that I understand "regretful" Harris voters, unless they are expressing regret that the Democratic candidate was not determined in the usual manner of primaries.
We dream of what might have been, but we are where we are. This polling points out the importance of political strategies that bring in the widest group of people.
Elliott — you should devote a post to Max Raskin’s op-ed in this morning’s Washington Post in which he argues that prediction markets are more accurate than polls in predicting political outcomes. He cites some specific articles in journals like the Journal of Economic Perspectives supporting his argument.
Hi Jack. I read his post. It was unduly boosterish in my opinion — not least because the headline empirical chart compared betting market probabilities with vote shares in polls without transforming them to the same scale!!
I agree that it was obviously boosterish. But because it cited articles by respected economists like Justin Wolfers, I thought it might gain traction and deserved a detailed response, including reviewing the articles he cites and showing how they have been either misinterpreted or suffered from design weaknesses.
Oh man, you gotta take care of you, boo. Family is important. Your own work life balance and sanity are important. Rest is important. Enjoy your Saturday!!
My wife, who has tried to keep her sanity by ignoring Trump, finally summed it up after reading today's news in the NYTs and on her phone; "What a disgusting human being...except for the human being part".
And trying to spread yourself too thin trying to create content for us is going to deplete your vital stores of "here it comes...just don't say anything!" self-control, required for dealing with certain family members. Because every family has one or more!
Really interesting. And thanks for the breakdown by demographics. I'm sure there aren't data to show how this would have impacted the electoral college. Seems likely our retrograde system would still have made trump president again. And enjoy the time off.
As a paying subscriber, I’d be happy with you just stipulating that you will produce X1 amount of work in a year and will take X2 days or weeks off. And X2 should not be too stingy—we should all have more time off.
" why would someone vote for someone in a hypothetical redo if they regretted voting for them in the first place? Maybe they just regret having to vote for them, but they still prefer doing so."
Or maybe they're just poster boys for the crisis of political illiteracy in America?
Regret schmegret. The damage they have done to our country and to the world is now permanent, and we are in uncharted waters that resemble the 1930s in Europe. Thanks, maga cretins. I have particular disdain for these groups of people (you can call me whatever you want).
1. Stay home voters (there are no good candidates, there were no democratic primaries, I do not support Dems re: Israel, etc. F.U.
2. Hispanic voters: they supported trump "for the economy" (lol) when in fact they really really hated all those Venezuelans and Nicaraguans with temporary protected status. Plus, abortion and trans kids in sports were at the top of their "conservative values" - see where that got us. F.U. twice.
3. Single value voters: abortion, trans kids in sports. While the going was good, these were their top concerns. Now they are all struggling. F.U. three times, and I hope you get everything you actually voted for.
4. Christian Nationalists. no need to comment here.
5. "Gaza is speaking now, bit*h" voters and the Arabs in MI, who "abandoned" Harris for somebody who had previously instituted a muslim ban. Well, Gaza is not speaking anymore since it's been leveled. They are awfully quiet now. F.U. too.
I think that some Trump voters regret their vote has pragmatic and practical implications for November 2026 and beyond that's worth tracking. I'm interested in Trump's base of support collapsing, but only because I want to extinguish Trumpism, not out of any particular interest in the personal journeys of those regret voters.
Also, the concentration of that regret in young male voters and Hispanic/Latino voter has an additional layer of practical interest because there were a lot of post 2024 think pieces about there being a realignment in the electorate. And, not for nothing, all of those Republican Gerrymanders done since 2024 are based on past turnout in 2024. So, if the assumption that the voters who voted for Trump in 2024 will turn out and vote Republican in 2026 is wrong, and we have evidence that it is wrong, it expands the battlefield and the possible extent of the victory for the anti-Trump coalition in 2026. In fact, if Republican state legislatures sliced the salami too thin making bad assumptions that 2026 voters will do what 2024 voters did, then they might be hoisted by their own petard.
And Mr. Morris addresses this himself in the piece: "...the partisan asymmetry in the 2024 vote regret really matters for electoral strategy and narrative purposes."
Well you are more rational than me this morning. I agree with you. This does not make these people any more despicable in my eyes, especially after T1.
Having said that, another practical observation is that the presidential election is in fact swung by a few tens of thousands of votes because of the electoral college distortion, so these may in fact be very very significant and impactful developments.
it's still alright to be pissed at trump supporters as an individual matter, imo. and also right to want some accountability for what happened to get us here. just replied pointing out the accountability dynamic isn't Morris's thrust today in examining regret among trump voters, it's all realpolitik vote counting
This is the bull case for Harris 2028.
Can you comment on whether the data shows that Democrats are winning in very Republican places because independents are breaking for them overwhelmingly, or Republicans are starting to vote for Democrats as Bitecofer suggests in her substack today https://thecycle.substack.com/p/so-much-winning?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web. Thank you
Work-Life balance is also difficult in the insane political times in which we are living. It's not my job to stay so plugged into everything, but I have to remind myself not to feel guilty when I take off an afternoon to work on family history on Ancestry instead of reading all the Substack posts that fill my in-box.
I'm not sure that I understand "regretful" Harris voters, unless they are expressing regret that the Democratic candidate was not determined in the usual manner of primaries.
We dream of what might have been, but we are where we are. This polling points out the importance of political strategies that bring in the widest group of people.
Elliott — you should devote a post to Max Raskin’s op-ed in this morning’s Washington Post in which he argues that prediction markets are more accurate than polls in predicting political outcomes. He cites some specific articles in journals like the Journal of Economic Perspectives supporting his argument.
Hi Jack. I read his post. It was unduly boosterish in my opinion — not least because the headline empirical chart compared betting market probabilities with vote shares in polls without transforming them to the same scale!!
I agree that it was obviously boosterish. But because it cited articles by respected economists like Justin Wolfers, I thought it might gain traction and deserved a detailed response, including reviewing the articles he cites and showing how they have been either misinterpreted or suffered from design weaknesses.
Take a break! We all need one so we can keep going. Appreciate your data, insights and analysis that are so important. Now more than ever. Thank you!
Oh man, you gotta take care of you, boo. Family is important. Your own work life balance and sanity are important. Rest is important. Enjoy your Saturday!!
Take time off when you need it. Rest is important to keep doing the vital work you are doing. We don't want you to burn out. Stay healthy!
My wife, who has tried to keep her sanity by ignoring Trump, finally summed it up after reading today's news in the NYTs and on her phone; "What a disgusting human being...except for the human being part".
Get everyone you know out to No Kings tomorrow.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
do your family event. And thanks for the greater information on "regret" voters.
And trying to spread yourself too thin trying to create content for us is going to deplete your vital stores of "here it comes...just don't say anything!" self-control, required for dealing with certain family members. Because every family has one or more!
Really interesting. And thanks for the breakdown by demographics. I'm sure there aren't data to show how this would have impacted the electoral college. Seems likely our retrograde system would still have made trump president again. And enjoy the time off.
You missed a poll-- among people who didn't vote, do they regret not voting? And both whom would they have voted for and whom they would vote for now?
You’re right, my oversight, I should have broken down for non-voters too. I’ll do an update on this article soon
As a paying subscriber, I’d be happy with you just stipulating that you will produce X1 amount of work in a year and will take X2 days or weeks off. And X2 should not be too stingy—we should all have more time off.
Absolutely take time off. Your boss needs to understand that we all need time away from the job!
" why would someone vote for someone in a hypothetical redo if they regretted voting for them in the first place? Maybe they just regret having to vote for them, but they still prefer doing so."
Or maybe they're just poster boys for the crisis of political illiteracy in America?
Regret schmegret. The damage they have done to our country and to the world is now permanent, and we are in uncharted waters that resemble the 1930s in Europe. Thanks, maga cretins. I have particular disdain for these groups of people (you can call me whatever you want).
1. Stay home voters (there are no good candidates, there were no democratic primaries, I do not support Dems re: Israel, etc. F.U.
2. Hispanic voters: they supported trump "for the economy" (lol) when in fact they really really hated all those Venezuelans and Nicaraguans with temporary protected status. Plus, abortion and trans kids in sports were at the top of their "conservative values" - see where that got us. F.U. twice.
3. Single value voters: abortion, trans kids in sports. While the going was good, these were their top concerns. Now they are all struggling. F.U. three times, and I hope you get everything you actually voted for.
4. Christian Nationalists. no need to comment here.
5. "Gaza is speaking now, bit*h" voters and the Arabs in MI, who "abandoned" Harris for somebody who had previously instituted a muslim ban. Well, Gaza is not speaking anymore since it's been leveled. They are awfully quiet now. F.U. too.
I think that some Trump voters regret their vote has pragmatic and practical implications for November 2026 and beyond that's worth tracking. I'm interested in Trump's base of support collapsing, but only because I want to extinguish Trumpism, not out of any particular interest in the personal journeys of those regret voters.
Also, the concentration of that regret in young male voters and Hispanic/Latino voter has an additional layer of practical interest because there were a lot of post 2024 think pieces about there being a realignment in the electorate. And, not for nothing, all of those Republican Gerrymanders done since 2024 are based on past turnout in 2024. So, if the assumption that the voters who voted for Trump in 2024 will turn out and vote Republican in 2026 is wrong, and we have evidence that it is wrong, it expands the battlefield and the possible extent of the victory for the anti-Trump coalition in 2026. In fact, if Republican state legislatures sliced the salami too thin making bad assumptions that 2026 voters will do what 2024 voters did, then they might be hoisted by their own petard.
And Mr. Morris addresses this himself in the piece: "...the partisan asymmetry in the 2024 vote regret really matters for electoral strategy and narrative purposes."
Hail to the hoisting!
Well you are more rational than me this morning. I agree with you. This does not make these people any more despicable in my eyes, especially after T1.
Having said that, another practical observation is that the presidential election is in fact swung by a few tens of thousands of votes because of the electoral college distortion, so these may in fact be very very significant and impactful developments.
it's still alright to be pissed at trump supporters as an individual matter, imo. and also right to want some accountability for what happened to get us here. just replied pointing out the accountability dynamic isn't Morris's thrust today in examining regret among trump voters, it's all realpolitik vote counting
Do your family event, Mr. Morris.
I am sure I speak for all of us.
Here's your hall pass.