"Finally, what really stands out about Trump’s trajectory is not just how low his approval is. It’s that it basically never bounces, either. Over 14 months, there hasn’t been a single sustained recovery in his overall approval rating."
"To sum up: Trump’s approval ratings slide doesn’t look like the result of one isolated crisis so much as the cumulative effect of a presidency that keeps making voters feel not listened to and less economically secure."
It's almost like people woke up after Election Day and realized that Donald f***ing Trump was going to be president again. And then he got into office and acted exactly like Donald f***ing Trump. Average Americans feel like they're not listened to and are economically insecure? Silly gooses! Trump was never about them! He was ALWAYS about his Epstein Class of enablers and donors, who are currently living through Donnie's GoldenAge of America.™️. It's too bad nobody warned Trump voters ahead of time......🤦♀️
You note that Trump has shown no apparent interest in winning back support (others -- e.g., Rampell -- have also opined that Trump seems to be playing to lose the midterms). There are literally only three possible reasons for this: 1) Trump/GOP plan to make a play to subvert the midterms or rig a favorable result; 2) Trump plans to defy the presumptive post-election Democratic majority(s) with force (ICE; military; induced chaos, including possible nuclear warfare); 3) Trump is batshit crazy and has no plan, will just improvise.
It's hard to come up with a plausible scenario for Trump stealing the midterms even with the attempted use of force. I guess he could seize all the ballots and tabulating machines, but we'd have armies of lawyers in court and armies of voters in the streets. Or Mike Johnson could refuse to swear in Democratic winners next January but even so the terms of Republican losers will expire so they can't vote to keep him as Speaker.
He started with a lot of people giving him the benefit of the doubt based upon his first term, when the "adults in the room" kept him from his worst impulses, and also that he'd return prices to 2019 levels. He lost them quickly.
At each point, a group of people giving him the benefit of the doubt were chipped away: that he'd only go after the worst of the worst, etc.
What's left are the hardest for Trump to lose: independents that are to the right of the GOP, some independents and non-MAGA GOP members who are either disengaged or root for the team, or MAGA. And he's starting to lose them.
Trump is idolized because he re-opened the civil war, that the butthurt southern states lost but have been still fighting in cosplay for the last century and a half. It never actually ended in their minds.
Kinda have to wonder. Was the initial drop a flurry of EOs? Or specifically pardoning all the January 6th criminals?
Is there any data available for us to compare current net approval with January 2021?
"Finally, what really stands out about Trump’s trajectory is not just how low his approval is. It’s that it basically never bounces, either. Over 14 months, there hasn’t been a single sustained recovery in his overall approval rating."
"To sum up: Trump’s approval ratings slide doesn’t look like the result of one isolated crisis so much as the cumulative effect of a presidency that keeps making voters feel not listened to and less economically secure."
It's almost like people woke up after Election Day and realized that Donald f***ing Trump was going to be president again. And then he got into office and acted exactly like Donald f***ing Trump. Average Americans feel like they're not listened to and are economically insecure? Silly gooses! Trump was never about them! He was ALWAYS about his Epstein Class of enablers and donors, who are currently living through Donnie's GoldenAge of America.™️. It's too bad nobody warned Trump voters ahead of time......🤦♀️
"his unpopularity looks less like a purely political or economic liability and more like a defining feature of his second term."
And he simply does not have the humility or wisdom to change his policies or start caring about anyone other than himself.
And this is where we are.
Hopefully the laws of physics will eventually drag his rotten bloated body down to earth with a sickening thud.
Excellent thoughtful article. Thanks
You note that Trump has shown no apparent interest in winning back support (others -- e.g., Rampell -- have also opined that Trump seems to be playing to lose the midterms). There are literally only three possible reasons for this: 1) Trump/GOP plan to make a play to subvert the midterms or rig a favorable result; 2) Trump plans to defy the presumptive post-election Democratic majority(s) with force (ICE; military; induced chaos, including possible nuclear warfare); 3) Trump is batshit crazy and has no plan, will just improvise.
Certainly #3 cannot be discounted, but #s 1 and 2 need to be taken seriously and prepared for. I forecast this last September: https://whowhatwhy.org/politics/us-politics/as-his-popularity-tanks-donald-trump-turns-to-power/. It's worth, I think, reviewing -- and possibly updating.
It's hard to come up with a plausible scenario for Trump stealing the midterms even with the attempted use of force. I guess he could seize all the ballots and tabulating machines, but we'd have armies of lawyers in court and armies of voters in the streets. Or Mike Johnson could refuse to swear in Democratic winners next January but even so the terms of Republican losers will expire so they can't vote to keep him as Speaker.
He started with a lot of people giving him the benefit of the doubt based upon his first term, when the "adults in the room" kept him from his worst impulses, and also that he'd return prices to 2019 levels. He lost them quickly.
At each point, a group of people giving him the benefit of the doubt were chipped away: that he'd only go after the worst of the worst, etc.
What's left are the hardest for Trump to lose: independents that are to the right of the GOP, some independents and non-MAGA GOP members who are either disengaged or root for the team, or MAGA. And he's starting to lose them.
Awesome post, E! Thanks!
Really insightful analysis—bravo for all the statistical heavy lifting.
Excellent essay.
Minneapolis had no effect?
Minneapolis doesn’t seem to have hurt Trump’s overall overall, no. But it DID cause his approval on immigration in particular to drop.
I agree. the chart should have more identified events including events like Maduro kidnapping that might have been expected to provide some bounce.
Trump has pushed the oligarch agenda, where the country works for about 50 hyperwealthy people and fucks everybody else and the world
Trump is idolized because he re-opened the civil war, that the butthurt southern states lost but have been still fighting in cosplay for the last century and a half. It never actually ended in their minds.
That's what keeps the cult in his grip.
He has a lot of haters but James Carville was correct way back in '92 with "It's the economy stupid."