Trumps presidencies have been so chaotic every single day. Seems like gas prices get significantly muted by all the noise of the rest of the chaos. This in contrast to other administrations, where we didn’t wake up every single day wondering what horrors awaited us that day…so gas price changes may have stood alone as significant in news reporting. It’s significant now too… but so is an endless list of cruelty and greed Americans can barely catch their breaths from.
I think that lower gas prices might improve Trump's approval rating, at least temporarily. Unfortunately, he is inveterately determined to set fire to bags of dog poop on everyone's front porch, so that any redeeming factors of his kingship are swiftly enveloped in flames.
He can't help himself. He's an agent of chaos, and people are getting weary of chaos. They want stability and perhaps even a sense of optimism. Trump cannot deliver either.
Is this maybe a function of playing to type? Democrats have the black cloud of inflation over their heads (while Republicans are seen as warmongers, weak on education and taking away health care).
It makes sense that we would see a higher r pre-Obama; polarization restricts responsiveness of presidential approval to political shocks and market externalities. High polarization = gas prices move and produce very small effects on POTUS approval = low r.
Makes sense; also I’m not entirely convinced Bush wasn’t a special case in that the policy decisions that cratered his approval just so happened to ALSO drive gas prices (Iraq obvs, Katrina in the short term, speculative laissez-faire in run up to financial crisis etc.)
Trumps presidencies have been so chaotic every single day. Seems like gas prices get significantly muted by all the noise of the rest of the chaos. This in contrast to other administrations, where we didn’t wake up every single day wondering what horrors awaited us that day…so gas price changes may have stood alone as significant in news reporting. It’s significant now too… but so is an endless list of cruelty and greed Americans can barely catch their breaths from.
Very interesting!
I think that lower gas prices might improve Trump's approval rating, at least temporarily. Unfortunately, he is inveterately determined to set fire to bags of dog poop on everyone's front porch, so that any redeeming factors of his kingship are swiftly enveloped in flames.
He can't help himself. He's an agent of chaos, and people are getting weary of chaos. They want stability and perhaps even a sense of optimism. Trump cannot deliver either.
Is this maybe a function of playing to type? Democrats have the black cloud of inflation over their heads (while Republicans are seen as warmongers, weak on education and taking away health care).
I’ve seen a 2000-2008 analysis where the r2 is much higher than 0.3….
It makes sense that we would see a higher r pre-Obama; polarization restricts responsiveness of presidential approval to political shocks and market externalities. High polarization = gas prices move and produce very small effects on POTUS approval = low r.
Makes sense; also I’m not entirely convinced Bush wasn’t a special case in that the policy decisions that cratered his approval just so happened to ALSO drive gas prices (Iraq obvs, Katrina in the short term, speculative laissez-faire in run up to financial crisis etc.)