1. It's too early for polls to measure the impact of the recent gas price increase. The more times drivers fill their tanks at these prices, the more impact we will see in polls.
2. Even if the war ends soon (not guaranteed), gas prices will not drop to pre-war levels for months (if at all). Kalshi bettors are pricing Election Day gas at 4.38.
3. If Iran puts a toll on the Strait of Hormuz, we will all pay that toll at the pump
4. Gas and diesel increases drive up the costs of many other products, including groceries, farm outputs, airline tickets, etc. Biden wasn't hurt by the higher cost of any single product - it was the cumulative effect.
5. Democratic candidates are likely to feature high gas prices in their ads and blame Trump for them, which will further hurt his approval.
Trump had so many other issues in both his first term and so far this term, that gas prices until now didn't mean anything. I also think gas prices are more a proxy for issues in the Middle East than anything else.
That suggests that Republicans are worried, rightly or wrongly, about high gas prices affecting the decisions voters will make at the polls. (I doubt many of these Republicans read Strength in Numbers.)
Of course, the suspension of sales tax will affect state revenue, although we have already been told that there is not enough money for pesky matters such as Medicaid or education, not to mention the environmental needs. Gasoline taxes help fund the maintenance of roads, already severely neglected in rural Indiana. Perhaps it will let Braun plow ahead with his plans for toll roads.
My sense is that the suspension is Governor Braun''s pathetic attempt to help Trump and Republican candidates in Indiana.
Trumps presidencies have been so chaotic every single day. Seems like gas prices get significantly muted by all the noise of the rest of the chaos. This in contrast to other administrations, where we didn’t wake up every single day wondering what horrors awaited us that day…so gas price changes may have stood alone as significant in news reporting. It’s significant now too… but so is an endless list of cruelty and greed Americans can barely catch their breaths from.
I think that lower gas prices might improve Trump's approval rating, at least temporarily. Unfortunately, he is inveterately determined to set fire to bags of dog poop on everyone's front porch, so that any redeeming factors of his kingship are swiftly enveloped in flames.
He can't help himself. He's an agent of chaos, and people are getting weary of chaos. They want stability and perhaps even a sense of optimism. Trump cannot deliver either.
Is this maybe a function of playing to type? Democrats have the black cloud of inflation over their heads (while Republicans are seen as warmongers, weak on education and taking away health care).
It makes sense that we would see a higher r pre-Obama; polarization restricts responsiveness of presidential approval to political shocks and market externalities. High polarization = gas prices move and produce very small effects on POTUS approval = low r.
Makes sense; also I’m not entirely convinced Bush wasn’t a special case in that the policy decisions that cratered his approval just so happened to ALSO drive gas prices (Iraq obvs, Katrina in the short term, speculative laissez-faire in run up to financial crisis etc.)
Love the way you represented the data in different ways. Excellent work!
A few hypotheses:
1. It's too early for polls to measure the impact of the recent gas price increase. The more times drivers fill their tanks at these prices, the more impact we will see in polls.
2. Even if the war ends soon (not guaranteed), gas prices will not drop to pre-war levels for months (if at all). Kalshi bettors are pricing Election Day gas at 4.38.
3. If Iran puts a toll on the Strait of Hormuz, we will all pay that toll at the pump
4. Gas and diesel increases drive up the costs of many other products, including groceries, farm outputs, airline tickets, etc. Biden wasn't hurt by the higher cost of any single product - it was the cumulative effect.
5. Democratic candidates are likely to feature high gas prices in their ads and blame Trump for them, which will further hurt his approval.
Trump had so many other issues in both his first term and so far this term, that gas prices until now didn't mean anything. I also think gas prices are more a proxy for issues in the Middle East than anything else.
In Indiana, the Republican governor has suspended gasoline taxes and sales tax for at least 30 days:
https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/04/08/braun-announces-30-day-break-on-indiana-sales-tax-for-gasoline/?emci=22ffc13b-5533-f111-8ef2-000d3a14b640&emdi=399c6b82-0734-f111-8ef2-000d3a14b640&ceid=630426
That suggests that Republicans are worried, rightly or wrongly, about high gas prices affecting the decisions voters will make at the polls. (I doubt many of these Republicans read Strength in Numbers.)
Of course, the suspension of sales tax will affect state revenue, although we have already been told that there is not enough money for pesky matters such as Medicaid or education, not to mention the environmental needs. Gasoline taxes help fund the maintenance of roads, already severely neglected in rural Indiana. Perhaps it will let Braun plow ahead with his plans for toll roads.
My sense is that the suspension is Governor Braun''s pathetic attempt to help Trump and Republican candidates in Indiana.
I've seen an analysis somewhere previously that a graph of (media coverage of gas prices) vs (gas price) hockey-sticks as gas hits $3.50/gal.
Trumps presidencies have been so chaotic every single day. Seems like gas prices get significantly muted by all the noise of the rest of the chaos. This in contrast to other administrations, where we didn’t wake up every single day wondering what horrors awaited us that day…so gas price changes may have stood alone as significant in news reporting. It’s significant now too… but so is an endless list of cruelty and greed Americans can barely catch their breaths from.
Very interesting!
I think that lower gas prices might improve Trump's approval rating, at least temporarily. Unfortunately, he is inveterately determined to set fire to bags of dog poop on everyone's front porch, so that any redeeming factors of his kingship are swiftly enveloped in flames.
He can't help himself. He's an agent of chaos, and people are getting weary of chaos. They want stability and perhaps even a sense of optimism. Trump cannot deliver either.
Brilliantly written. Thanks
Is this maybe a function of playing to type? Democrats have the black cloud of inflation over their heads (while Republicans are seen as warmongers, weak on education and taking away health care).
I’ve seen a 2000-2008 analysis where the r2 is much higher than 0.3….
It makes sense that we would see a higher r pre-Obama; polarization restricts responsiveness of presidential approval to political shocks and market externalities. High polarization = gas prices move and produce very small effects on POTUS approval = low r.
Makes sense; also I’m not entirely convinced Bush wasn’t a special case in that the policy decisions that cratered his approval just so happened to ALSO drive gas prices (Iraq obvs, Katrina in the short term, speculative laissez-faire in run up to financial crisis etc.)