In individual-level polling data, two-thirds of Trump disapprovers who aren’t backing Democrats on the generic ballot look like closeted Republicans, not swing voters waiting for a pivot on crime
I entirely agree with your analysis of Group 1. But I don't think you can write off Group 3 entirely. They look like upscale educated traditional Republicans who voted Republican on economics, not on social issues - there's little crime where they live (OK, maybe lots of insider trading) and some of them are pro-choice. They can be reached by talking about democracy, corruption, and Trump's incompetence.
People like Will Stancil want to go after this block of voters exclusively and say Democrats should drop talk of economic fairness. What your data shows is that this would give up on Group 1, which is much more persuadable. And of course Democrats can talk about both! In fact, there are ways to appeal to both groups simultaneously, especially with the corruption issue.
You really need to argue with the Stancils of the world too. They have lots of followers online (although much fewer among Democratic candidates).
Hey Ben. I think the strategic focus should be Pool 1 and then Pool 3, in that order, for the main reason that about 17% of Pool 1 already says they'll vote R on the generic ballot (rest are undecided), but that number is 80% in Pool 3. The MIP among both groups is economics, so that's probably what Dems should campaign on. And they're the out-party right now so they have an advantage on the issue!
Wondering how racism and white nationalism camouflaged as Christianity correlate with voting republican these days. I bet the corruption coefficient is pretty darn close to 1
Once again, Mr. Morris produces statistics that give us hope.
For decades, Republicans have used negative campaigning (which I still deplore) to convince people what to vote AGAINST, what they HATE. And they succeed, because eliciting visceral reactions in people makes them far more determined to vote: abortion, gay marriage, "transgender for all", gun control, fear of religious persecution and fear of crime (even when those issues are falsely and obviously exaggerated for purely partisan purposes) have pretty much produced today's loyal Republican voters. Then there's the ongoing undercurrent of the belief that taxes are just a redistribution of wealth from the hardworking, smarter, deserving rich to the lazy, undeserving, freeloading poor/minorities/women (thanks to Heather Cox Richardson for that apt theory).
So, where that leaves us is messaging, at which Dems are at a disadvantage because we recognize that many of these issues are complex and multi-faceted, and Republicans yearn for simple, black-and-white, own-the-libs slogans of smack-down dominance.
One message that more and more people are getting on board with these days is the reality that our current billionaire class is out of control and becoming dangerous to the future of our republic. Tying that "rage" to affordability may bring a few more swing voters over to our side. They need to vote AGAINST the corruption and exploitation of Trump and his cronies/family so that more families can be financially stable and have opportunities to get ahead.
What about the religious influence - evangelicals+. I think this is the approximate 30% base the republicans have - you never talk about.
Good question Dave. We don't have religion on the poll, so I can't write about it, but I'll talk with my partners about adding it as a crosstab!
I entirely agree with your analysis of Group 1. But I don't think you can write off Group 3 entirely. They look like upscale educated traditional Republicans who voted Republican on economics, not on social issues - there's little crime where they live (OK, maybe lots of insider trading) and some of them are pro-choice. They can be reached by talking about democracy, corruption, and Trump's incompetence.
People like Will Stancil want to go after this block of voters exclusively and say Democrats should drop talk of economic fairness. What your data shows is that this would give up on Group 1, which is much more persuadable. And of course Democrats can talk about both! In fact, there are ways to appeal to both groups simultaneously, especially with the corruption issue.
You really need to argue with the Stancils of the world too. They have lots of followers online (although much fewer among Democratic candidates).
Hey Ben. I think the strategic focus should be Pool 1 and then Pool 3, in that order, for the main reason that about 17% of Pool 1 already says they'll vote R on the generic ballot (rest are undecided), but that number is 80% in Pool 3. The MIP among both groups is economics, so that's probably what Dems should campaign on. And they're the out-party right now so they have an advantage on the issue!
Very insightful as always!
Way to breakdown the data, I think it clearly identifies where to focus
Wondering how racism and white nationalism camouflaged as Christianity correlate with voting republican these days. I bet the corruption coefficient is pretty darn close to 1
Once again, Mr. Morris produces statistics that give us hope.
For decades, Republicans have used negative campaigning (which I still deplore) to convince people what to vote AGAINST, what they HATE. And they succeed, because eliciting visceral reactions in people makes them far more determined to vote: abortion, gay marriage, "transgender for all", gun control, fear of religious persecution and fear of crime (even when those issues are falsely and obviously exaggerated for purely partisan purposes) have pretty much produced today's loyal Republican voters. Then there's the ongoing undercurrent of the belief that taxes are just a redistribution of wealth from the hardworking, smarter, deserving rich to the lazy, undeserving, freeloading poor/minorities/women (thanks to Heather Cox Richardson for that apt theory).
So, where that leaves us is messaging, at which Dems are at a disadvantage because we recognize that many of these issues are complex and multi-faceted, and Republicans yearn for simple, black-and-white, own-the-libs slogans of smack-down dominance.
One message that more and more people are getting on board with these days is the reality that our current billionaire class is out of control and becoming dangerous to the future of our republic. Tying that "rage" to affordability may bring a few more swing voters over to our side. They need to vote AGAINST the corruption and exploitation of Trump and his cronies/family so that more families can be financially stable and have opportunities to get ahead.
Eat the cuntillionaires is a pretty good message