I am really surprised at your reaction to Graham Platners’s plight, G Elliot, you convicted him on the basis of 1 person’s statements - to her shrink and to her friends. Are there hospital or police records? What happened to due process? And the manipulations of the DC crowd need examining. Platner won over 70% of the vote in the Democratic primary. What about that number? Please try to be more balanced in your assessments of allegations in the future.
I do like your analysis but not moralizing with one sided evidence. -Fred Rhynhart
The NYT, National Review, and WSJ have articles on Dan Moraff, a political operative who seems to have recruited Platner to run, and to some extent, to have crafted his message as well as his "working class" background, which is not exactly working class. Voters need to look behind the political operations, no matter how slick they may be. It's not just does the candidate have the message, but does the candidate have qualifications for that office? Has that candidate served in other legislative positions and learned how to legislate? Putting a neophyte into a job as Senator is unlikely to end well.
One point: the Maine party didn’t pick Platner—the voters did. Many people liked his pitch, and the early polls showed him far ahead of Collins. His numbers dropped as the revelations spilled out. The Party preferred Mills. But I doubt Mills could beat Collins, as she has become unpopular with businesses and many Dems are upset with her vetoes. The candidate list for governor was strong and I wish some of them had smelled the downfall of Collins and jumped in. Platner’s rising star may have steered them away. But Bellows, Shah, and Jackson have state-wide name recognition and experience. We’ll see how the next few weeks play out.
I live in Maine and your focus on democrats winning the Senate majority (based on my understanding of probabilities of key Democratic state wins that put the Senate in play for the Democrats) is fascinating. The Senate race here was hijacked by paid consultants who didn’t do their homework or polling. What really is fortunate is the results of rank choice voting in the Maine gubernatorial race have provided a metric for who can potentially overcome Ms. Collins. Thank you for this valuable information.
A couple of things stand out to me, not in the data, but in the facts of this situation. Something that I saw primarily as an "R" disease is infecting male Democrat candidates, which is, as with Swalwell and Platner, thinking that not ony can they get away with assault/rape/drugging, etc., but they feel confident enough to run for office with that history. My god. I'm surprised they can walk, dragging those globes around.
IMO, this is because women have not felt safe, or did not think it was worth it or likely to result in any benefit, to report these things, and they were right.
When "Me,too," first rose up, I felt awful for not reporting the men who had assaulted me -- I hadn't looked out for any subsequent victims; I should have -- but then, when I saw how little good it did (see, "Epstein files," and Epstein's victims, and a zillion other cases), and how much damage it often did -- not to the lives of the men, but to those of the women, I realized just how right I'd been.
It sounds insane, but at this point I wish the law would just come out and state how many (unrelated) women's claims are necessary to be taken seriously against one man's claim of innocence.
We'll see whether he has the decency to step down. I know nothing of Maine campaign finance laws, but I sure hope he doesn't decide he wants to stay on the ballot to continue to have access to the contributions he's got in his account.
i’m an optimist so i see this as an opportunity to slot in a candidate with higher favorability ratings. also what the hell was janet mills’ team doing? how did they not find this?
Another great piece, no doubt with baby in hand or with you typing as quietly as possible! Platner is one extraordinary hot mess. I was done with the totenkopf and while if I were a Mainer I'd vote against Collins, I'll never forget a lot of people thought a symbol that, to people living in Europe in the 1930s and 1940s was even worse than a swastika (though it always came with the swastika), was no big deal. The totenkopf showed us who he is and it should have been ample for ending his political career.
Fingers crossed Platner withdraws for the good of the country. Having already elected a convicted felon who was accused of sexual misconduct, doubtful he could prevail anyway.
I am really surprised at your reaction to Graham Platners’s plight, G Elliot, you convicted him on the basis of 1 person’s statements - to her shrink and to her friends. Are there hospital or police records? What happened to due process? And the manipulations of the DC crowd need examining. Platner won over 70% of the vote in the Democratic primary. What about that number? Please try to be more balanced in your assessments of allegations in the future.
I do like your analysis but not moralizing with one sided evidence. -Fred Rhynhart
Hard not to notice the glut of moderates at the top of the "Democrats overperforming fundamentals the most" list
The NYT, National Review, and WSJ have articles on Dan Moraff, a political operative who seems to have recruited Platner to run, and to some extent, to have crafted his message as well as his "working class" background, which is not exactly working class. Voters need to look behind the political operations, no matter how slick they may be. It's not just does the candidate have the message, but does the candidate have qualifications for that office? Has that candidate served in other legislative positions and learned how to legislate? Putting a neophyte into a job as Senator is unlikely to end well.
One point: the Maine party didn’t pick Platner—the voters did. Many people liked his pitch, and the early polls showed him far ahead of Collins. His numbers dropped as the revelations spilled out. The Party preferred Mills. But I doubt Mills could beat Collins, as she has become unpopular with businesses and many Dems are upset with her vetoes. The candidate list for governor was strong and I wish some of them had smelled the downfall of Collins and jumped in. Platner’s rising star may have steered them away. But Bellows, Shah, and Jackson have state-wide name recognition and experience. We’ll see how the next few weeks play out.
outstanding essay and analysis, thanks!
I live in Maine and your focus on democrats winning the Senate majority (based on my understanding of probabilities of key Democratic state wins that put the Senate in play for the Democrats) is fascinating. The Senate race here was hijacked by paid consultants who didn’t do their homework or polling. What really is fortunate is the results of rank choice voting in the Maine gubernatorial race have provided a metric for who can potentially overcome Ms. Collins. Thank you for this valuable information.
A couple of things stand out to me, not in the data, but in the facts of this situation. Something that I saw primarily as an "R" disease is infecting male Democrat candidates, which is, as with Swalwell and Platner, thinking that not ony can they get away with assault/rape/drugging, etc., but they feel confident enough to run for office with that history. My god. I'm surprised they can walk, dragging those globes around.
IMO, this is because women have not felt safe, or did not think it was worth it or likely to result in any benefit, to report these things, and they were right.
When "Me,too," first rose up, I felt awful for not reporting the men who had assaulted me -- I hadn't looked out for any subsequent victims; I should have -- but then, when I saw how little good it did (see, "Epstein files," and Epstein's victims, and a zillion other cases), and how much damage it often did -- not to the lives of the men, but to those of the women, I realized just how right I'd been.
It sounds insane, but at this point I wish the law would just come out and state how many (unrelated) women's claims are necessary to be taken seriously against one man's claim of innocence.
We'll see whether he has the decency to step down. I know nothing of Maine campaign finance laws, but I sure hope he doesn't decide he wants to stay on the ballot to continue to have access to the contributions he's got in his account.
i’m an optimist so i see this as an opportunity to slot in a candidate with higher favorability ratings. also what the hell was janet mills’ team doing? how did they not find this?
Another great piece, no doubt with baby in hand or with you typing as quietly as possible! Platner is one extraordinary hot mess. I was done with the totenkopf and while if I were a Mainer I'd vote against Collins, I'll never forget a lot of people thought a symbol that, to people living in Europe in the 1930s and 1940s was even worse than a swastika (though it always came with the swastika), was no big deal. The totenkopf showed us who he is and it should have been ample for ending his political career.
Fingers crossed Platner withdraws for the good of the country. Having already elected a convicted felon who was accused of sexual misconduct, doubtful he could prevail anyway.
Dems probably need 52, to offset a Fetterman flip
I think a switch by Fetterman is unlikely. Even he said “he’d make a shitty Republican. “ More likely that he’ll continue to be the new Joe Manchin.
Isn’t that the truth?!