I live in Maine and your focus on democrats winning the Senate majority (based on my understanding of probabilities of key Democratic state wins that put the Senate in play for the Democrats) is fascinating. The Senate race here was hijacked by paid consultants who didn’t do their homework or polling. What really is fortunate is the results of rank choice voting in the Maine gubernatorial race have provided a metric for who can potentially overcome Ms. Collins. Thank you for this valuable information.
A couple of things stand out to me, not in the data, but in the facts of this situation. Something that I saw primarily as an "R" disease is infecting male Democrat candidates, which is, as with Swalwell and Platner, thinking that not ony can they get away with assault/rape/drugging, etc., but they feel confident enough to run for office with that history. My god. I'm surprised they can walk, dragging those globes around.
IMO, this is because women have not felt safe, or did not think it was worth it or likely to result in any benefit, to report these things, and they were right.
When "Me,too," first rose up, I felt awful for not reporting the men who had assaulted me -- I hadn't looked out for any subsequent victims; I should have -- but then, when I saw how little good it did (see, "Epstein files," and Epstein's victims, and a zillion other cases), and how much damage it often did -- not to the lives of the men, but to those of the women, I realized just how right I'd been.
It sounds insane, but at this point I wish the law would just come out and state how many (unrelated) women's claims are necessary to be taken seriously against one man's claim of innocence.
We'll see whether he has the decency to step down. I know nothing of Maine campaign finance laws, but I sure hope he doesn't decide he wants to stay on the ballot to continue to have access to the contributions he's got in his account.
i’m an optimist so i see this as an opportunity to slot in a candidate with higher favorability ratings. also what the hell was janet mills’ team doing? how did they not find this?
Another great piece, no doubt with baby in hand or with you typing as quietly as possible! Platner is one extraordinary hot mess. I was done with the totenkopf and while if I were a Mainer I'd vote against Collins, I'll never forget a lot of people thought a symbol that, to people living in Europe in the 1930s and 1940s was even worse than a swastika (though it always came with the swastika), was no big deal. The totenkopf showed us who he is and it should have been ample for ending his political career.
Fingers crossed Platner withdraws for the good of the country. Having already elected a convicted felon who was accused of sexual misconduct, doubtful he could prevail anyway.
outstanding essay and analysis, thanks!
I live in Maine and your focus on democrats winning the Senate majority (based on my understanding of probabilities of key Democratic state wins that put the Senate in play for the Democrats) is fascinating. The Senate race here was hijacked by paid consultants who didn’t do their homework or polling. What really is fortunate is the results of rank choice voting in the Maine gubernatorial race have provided a metric for who can potentially overcome Ms. Collins. Thank you for this valuable information.
A couple of things stand out to me, not in the data, but in the facts of this situation. Something that I saw primarily as an "R" disease is infecting male Democrat candidates, which is, as with Swalwell and Platner, thinking that not ony can they get away with assault/rape/drugging, etc., but they feel confident enough to run for office with that history. My god. I'm surprised they can walk, dragging those globes around.
IMO, this is because women have not felt safe, or did not think it was worth it or likely to result in any benefit, to report these things, and they were right.
When "Me,too," first rose up, I felt awful for not reporting the men who had assaulted me -- I hadn't looked out for any subsequent victims; I should have -- but then, when I saw how little good it did (see, "Epstein files," and Epstein's victims, and a zillion other cases), and how much damage it often did -- not to the lives of the men, but to those of the women, I realized just how right I'd been.
It sounds insane, but at this point I wish the law would just come out and state how many (unrelated) women's claims are necessary to be taken seriously against one man's claim of innocence.
We'll see whether he has the decency to step down. I know nothing of Maine campaign finance laws, but I sure hope he doesn't decide he wants to stay on the ballot to continue to have access to the contributions he's got in his account.
i’m an optimist so i see this as an opportunity to slot in a candidate with higher favorability ratings. also what the hell was janet mills’ team doing? how did they not find this?
Another great piece, no doubt with baby in hand or with you typing as quietly as possible! Platner is one extraordinary hot mess. I was done with the totenkopf and while if I were a Mainer I'd vote against Collins, I'll never forget a lot of people thought a symbol that, to people living in Europe in the 1930s and 1940s was even worse than a swastika (though it always came with the swastika), was no big deal. The totenkopf showed us who he is and it should have been ample for ending his political career.
Fingers crossed Platner withdraws for the good of the country. Having already elected a convicted felon who was accused of sexual misconduct, doubtful he could prevail anyway.
Dems probably need 52, to offset a Fetterman flip
Isn’t that the truth?!