Elliott, please indicate whether young women predominantly have shifted back to favoring Dems and by what percentage?Also is there any recent polling which indicates which issue perhaps such as abortion rights is motivating young voters this year? Many thanks!
The zillion dollar question about the whole series of polls Elliott has published over the past couple of weeks is this—are we merely seeing the same tailwind of discontent the blew Trump into office in 2024 now supporting Dems simply because they’re once again “the other folks?” This matters because if the Dems are able to regain power, unless they’re able to quickly discern what policies would make these various voter cohorts happy—and enact them—this current tailwind might just shift back in the Republican’s favor circa 2030. Over these past few years, the universal truth seems to be that it’s easier to “rage farm” the electorate to get into power than it is to govern once you have it. There’s still a fair bit of magical thinking going on among Dem supporters about how easy it will be to enact various pieces of utopian legislation if the party gets the coveted trifecta in 2028. Pro tip—it’s not going to be easy as long as the Republican firewalls (especially SCOTUS) remain in place.
The other day I was struck once again by how - what I believe to be the majority of adults - difficult it is for people to acknowledge their mistakes. Watch for this in your own life to see if my theory holds water. Personally, I believe to acknowledge one's mistakes, and if appropriate; to convey regret and allow oneself to LEARN from the mistake, is a sign of true maturity and good character. Many were robbed of this ability in their childhood. Many aren't even aware of their deficit in this realm. Which brings me to Trump voters. Trump voters hold a myriad of motivations for their decision to use their precious power of the ballot to elect him. If they're disillusioned or feel betrayed - they won't say it out loud. It's foolish to believe they're going to tell some pollster that they regret their decision - hell many won't admit it to their closest family members! The key question is, "Will they vote in November 2026?" They have valid reasons to be discouraged from participating in selecting our leaders. The good news is that voting is EXTREMELY PRIVATE. So if they do go in to vote, "You never know..." Sadly, Mr. Morris - I don't believe we can quantify this phenomenon.
You're the best (and hilarious)! So appreciate your analysis--and the past couple of days' posts about 2024 nonvoters and the shifts driving D improvement in polling, party ID and generic ballot performance have been particularly helpful. Thanks!
The lesson of this, that low-propensity voters are shifting back to supporting Democrats, is that it will be more important to get those voters registered and get them to the polls. So the “ground game” of door-knocking and registration drives will become more important, and Trump’s efforts to make it more difficult to vote will be more of a threat.
Jack, the best method of GOTV is F2F conversations with neighbors. Unfortunately, many groups are using Relational Organizing or SMS, either "warm" or "cold" to GOTV, which isn't as productive. My colleague, Gary Keith, has a Substack (https://substack.com/@garykeith) devoted to creating a Democracy Neighbors Corps, which I advocate strongly.
Just curious. Why do non-voters matter? I know there is probably a reason my non-poll groking mind can't see. But if they don't vote, why does it matter?
"Non-voters" matter because hope springs eternal that they can be convinced to go back into the voting booth or mail in their ballot come November. They offer more hope than the die-hard Republicans. Trump brought out a lot of "non-voters" with his anti-establishment (lies) theme.
Fair question! The way I think of this is (a) some of them will end up voting, and (b)!from a non-electoral point of view politicians are theoretically supposed to represent even those who don’t participate.
That's great. The question now is, will former non-voters now turn out to vote, and, if so, will one group turn out more than the other. (My guess is that Republican leaners will be less inspired to change their behavior.)
The consistent and encouraging undercurrent here is that maybe, after being battered and bruised enough times, maybe some of the people who really, really thought that Trump loved them and would protect them and be loyal to them, have caught a clue that perhaps he is not the savior they wanted him to be.
The burned hand teaches best.
I hope that scar aches long enough that they make better decisions and then vote in November.
Elliott, please indicate whether young women predominantly have shifted back to favoring Dems and by what percentage?Also is there any recent polling which indicates which issue perhaps such as abortion rights is motivating young voters this year? Many thanks!
The zillion dollar question about the whole series of polls Elliott has published over the past couple of weeks is this—are we merely seeing the same tailwind of discontent the blew Trump into office in 2024 now supporting Dems simply because they’re once again “the other folks?” This matters because if the Dems are able to regain power, unless they’re able to quickly discern what policies would make these various voter cohorts happy—and enact them—this current tailwind might just shift back in the Republican’s favor circa 2030. Over these past few years, the universal truth seems to be that it’s easier to “rage farm” the electorate to get into power than it is to govern once you have it. There’s still a fair bit of magical thinking going on among Dem supporters about how easy it will be to enact various pieces of utopian legislation if the party gets the coveted trifecta in 2028. Pro tip—it’s not going to be easy as long as the Republican firewalls (especially SCOTUS) remain in place.
The other day I was struck once again by how - what I believe to be the majority of adults - difficult it is for people to acknowledge their mistakes. Watch for this in your own life to see if my theory holds water. Personally, I believe to acknowledge one's mistakes, and if appropriate; to convey regret and allow oneself to LEARN from the mistake, is a sign of true maturity and good character. Many were robbed of this ability in their childhood. Many aren't even aware of their deficit in this realm. Which brings me to Trump voters. Trump voters hold a myriad of motivations for their decision to use their precious power of the ballot to elect him. If they're disillusioned or feel betrayed - they won't say it out loud. It's foolish to believe they're going to tell some pollster that they regret their decision - hell many won't admit it to their closest family members! The key question is, "Will they vote in November 2026?" They have valid reasons to be discouraged from participating in selecting our leaders. The good news is that voting is EXTREMELY PRIVATE. So if they do go in to vote, "You never know..." Sadly, Mr. Morris - I don't believe we can quantify this phenomenon.
You're the best (and hilarious)! So appreciate your analysis--and the past couple of days' posts about 2024 nonvoters and the shifts driving D improvement in polling, party ID and generic ballot performance have been particularly helpful. Thanks!
The lesson of this, that low-propensity voters are shifting back to supporting Democrats, is that it will be more important to get those voters registered and get them to the polls. So the “ground game” of door-knocking and registration drives will become more important, and Trump’s efforts to make it more difficult to vote will be more of a threat.
Jack, the best method of GOTV is F2F conversations with neighbors. Unfortunately, many groups are using Relational Organizing or SMS, either "warm" or "cold" to GOTV, which isn't as productive. My colleague, Gary Keith, has a Substack (https://substack.com/@garykeith) devoted to creating a Democracy Neighbors Corps, which I advocate strongly.
Just curious. Why do non-voters matter? I know there is probably a reason my non-poll groking mind can't see. But if they don't vote, why does it matter?
"Non-voters" matter because hope springs eternal that they can be convinced to go back into the voting booth or mail in their ballot come November. They offer more hope than the die-hard Republicans. Trump brought out a lot of "non-voters" with his anti-establishment (lies) theme.
Fair question! The way I think of this is (a) some of them will end up voting, and (b)!from a non-electoral point of view politicians are theoretically supposed to represent even those who don’t participate.
That's great. The question now is, will former non-voters now turn out to vote, and, if so, will one group turn out more than the other. (My guess is that Republican leaners will be less inspired to change their behavior.)
My question also.
My worry is that guns and Trump's goons are going to control in November.
The consistent and encouraging undercurrent here is that maybe, after being battered and bruised enough times, maybe some of the people who really, really thought that Trump loved them and would protect them and be loyal to them, have caught a clue that perhaps he is not the savior they wanted him to be.
The burned hand teaches best.
I hope that scar aches long enough that they make better decisions and then vote in November.