The stories about Trump's coalition were bunk. Biden got 4 million more votes in 2020, than Trump got in 2024, so there was a very large set of potential Democratic voters who didn't turn out for Harris. The current poll bashing seems to come from people who expect a degree of certainty that's not possible, and who don't distinguish between reliable pollsters and the others.
SHE SLEPT THROUGH THE NIGHT, BOYS AND GIRLS!! Honestly that first unbroken night of sleep after a string of bad nights (weeks/months) can make you feel like you could go to war with Heaven itself.
Very interested to read the Cook article. In my super duper accurate and empirical Excel sheet of House & Senate polling (updated when I remember to), across all polls Cook's index is 4 - 5 points redder than the current polling would indicate
Not nearly enough. I’m an independent. I held my nose and voted for a Harris. Hoping against the reality that somehow she would not continue the genocide. I’m still finding it nearly impossible to forgive anyone who voted for Trump. I avoid them. It’s mind boggling that anyone still supports him. He’s a demented, dying, racist, misogynist, rapist. The most evil man ever elected POTUS v
It may make sense to track the Chairs of the following Congressional Committees:
Brett Guthrie - Kentucky House Energy & Commerce Taken $
Jim Jordan - Ohio -- House Judiciary
Chuck Grassley -- Iowa Senate Judiciary
Ted Cruz - Texas -- Senate Commerce, Science & Transportation (According to Claude, this committee has "jurisdiction over forty percent of the US economy."
From Claude:
Here's what I could verify with real figures — note that Big Tech-specific breakdowns aren't uniformly published for all four, so this is a mix of hard numbers and best-available reporting:
Brett Guthrie (House Energy & Commerce, R-KY)
Total PAC money jumped from $651,800 (Jan–Sept 2023, pre-chairmanship) to $1.6 million (Jan–Sept 2025, as chairman) — second-most of any House member behind Ways & Means Chair Jason Smith.
About 100 PACs gave him a first-ever check after he got the gavel.
Direct tech example: Oracle contributed $1,500 — a first-time donor. (Most of his committee-related surge is auto industry and broadcasting money — Sinclair Broadcast Group gave $5,000 — since Energy & Commerce's jurisdiction spans those sectors too, not just tech.)
Ted Cruz (Senate Commerce, R-TX)
Disney's PAC gave him $5,000 in 2025 — its first-ever donation to Cruz, arriving right after he took the Commerce gavel (which oversees broadcasting).
I don't have a clean aggregate "Big Tech total" for Cruz's 2025–26 cycle; OpenSecrets tracks this under his "Computers/Internet" industry category but the page wasn't scrapeable for exact figures.
Jim Jordan (House Judiciary, R-OH)
Since 2020, Jordan's campaign and affiliated PACs have received over $15,000 from PACs or lobbyists tied to Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Meta.
Google's PAC alone has given him over $35,000 since 2012.
He's also tied to Heritage Foundation and Koch-network circles that have taken large tech donations ($1.5M+ from Google, $275K from Facebook to Heritage) and lobbied against antitrust reform — an indirect but well-documented influence channel. (These are the most recent figures I could confirm; more current 2025–26-cycle-specific tech totals weren't available in searchable form.)
Chuck Grassley (Senate Judiciary, R-IA)
I could not pull a reliable tech-specific PAC figure for him this cycle — OpenSecrets' relevant pages are JavaScript-rendered and blocked automated fetching. What is public: he chairs Judiciary's oversight of Big Tech on kids'-safety and Section 230 issues, and has co-sponsored bills to repeal Section 230 immunity, which cuts against a simple "bought off" narrative for him specifically.
Caveat worth flagging: FEC full-cycle data for 2025–2026 won't be finalized until after the 2026 election, so these are still-developing totals, not final numbers. If you want, I can try pulling the FEC.gov itemized filings directly (fec.gov is more scrape-friendly than OpenSecrets) for a cleaner apples-to-apples comparison across all four.
It might also be useful to track Republican Senator or Congressional candidates in key swing states, which you know better than I. Particularly interested in those candidates that are currently House or Senate members.
I am surprised how many voters remain loyal to Trump. This partly reflects that the loudest Dem voices are too extreme and don’t try to speak for pragmatic middle America.
GEM: I think you make an unintentional error in reporting the U-MASS poll (shown with *** below.) You say in your post that "Anyway, I was reminded of all of this Trump regret polling this morning when a new UMass Amherst poll came through my inbox on early release late last night. ***According to the new poll, only about one in six Trump voters say they’d support him in a redo election.***" Can that be right? It's the opposite of what you say at the top of your piece - that one in six Trump 2024 voters wouldn't support him. Am I confused here?
Yup, that caught my eye, too. Guessing it's a typo from lack of sleep. Hoping for your sake and your wife's that the 3-month old gets consistent with eight hours of sleep a night.
86% of Trump voters Would vote for him again today. There fixed it. And I’m not so sure the 14% who say they wouldn’t vote for him today wouldn’t actually vote for him tomorrow.
Is there an empirical way to analyze how in hell only 14% of his 2024 supporters wouldn't vote for Trump today? Given the quickly emerging rise of oligarchy and loss of democracy, how can so many ignore this political change, involving especially the destruction of LBJ's Great Society programs?
I bet there has been work done on this subject somewhere. I can’t figure these folks out myself. I live in Oklahoma and any theories I have are based on my own anecdotal research. But I can say that they live in information bubbles and don’t really understand what is happening. They are also extremely tribal and have been trained to be afraid of Democrats, “social programs” (even if they benefit from them), black people, immigrants, gay and trans people, people with religions that aren’t Christianity or atheists, homeless people, I could go on but you get the idea. Basically, years and years of right wing propaganda and a base level racism makes progress a really long and slow proposition. It’s sad and depressing but I try not to let it get me down. At least young people don’t seem to buy all the prejudice so much. But that’s what I thought of people my own age in the 70s, 80s, 90s. Don’t know what makes folks turn into assholes really???
So the other 5 would? 🙄🤦🏽♀️
The stories about Trump's coalition were bunk. Biden got 4 million more votes in 2020, than Trump got in 2024, so there was a very large set of potential Democratic voters who didn't turn out for Harris. The current poll bashing seems to come from people who expect a degree of certainty that's not possible, and who don't distinguish between reliable pollsters and the others.
SHE SLEPT THROUGH THE NIGHT, BOYS AND GIRLS!! Honestly that first unbroken night of sleep after a string of bad nights (weeks/months) can make you feel like you could go to war with Heaven itself.
Very interested to read the Cook article. In my super duper accurate and empirical Excel sheet of House & Senate polling (updated when I remember to), across all polls Cook's index is 4 - 5 points redder than the current polling would indicate
I’m confused.
I think these two statements say very different things….
The headline in the article below: “ 1 out of 6 say they would not vote for Trump again”
BUT in the body of the article this sentence says: “only about one in six Trump voters say they’d support him in a redo election”
Not nearly enough. I’m an independent. I held my nose and voted for a Harris. Hoping against the reality that somehow she would not continue the genocide. I’m still finding it nearly impossible to forgive anyone who voted for Trump. I avoid them. It’s mind boggling that anyone still supports him. He’s a demented, dying, racist, misogynist, rapist. The most evil man ever elected POTUS v
Headline: One out of six T voters wouldn't vote for him again. So he's losing 17% of his '24 voters.
In text: "According to the new poll, only about one in six Trump voters say they’d support him in a redo election."
I get that either one is good news for humanity but 17% or 83% which is it?
i was in a panic when i read this headline!
It may make sense to track the Chairs of the following Congressional Committees:
Brett Guthrie - Kentucky House Energy & Commerce Taken $
Jim Jordan - Ohio -- House Judiciary
Chuck Grassley -- Iowa Senate Judiciary
Ted Cruz - Texas -- Senate Commerce, Science & Transportation (According to Claude, this committee has "jurisdiction over forty percent of the US economy."
From Claude:
Here's what I could verify with real figures — note that Big Tech-specific breakdowns aren't uniformly published for all four, so this is a mix of hard numbers and best-available reporting:
Brett Guthrie (House Energy & Commerce, R-KY)
Total PAC money jumped from $651,800 (Jan–Sept 2023, pre-chairmanship) to $1.6 million (Jan–Sept 2025, as chairman) — second-most of any House member behind Ways & Means Chair Jason Smith.
About 100 PACs gave him a first-ever check after he got the gavel.
Direct tech example: Oracle contributed $1,500 — a first-time donor. (Most of his committee-related surge is auto industry and broadcasting money — Sinclair Broadcast Group gave $5,000 — since Energy & Commerce's jurisdiction spans those sectors too, not just tech.)
Ted Cruz (Senate Commerce, R-TX)
Disney's PAC gave him $5,000 in 2025 — its first-ever donation to Cruz, arriving right after he took the Commerce gavel (which oversees broadcasting).
I don't have a clean aggregate "Big Tech total" for Cruz's 2025–26 cycle; OpenSecrets tracks this under his "Computers/Internet" industry category but the page wasn't scrapeable for exact figures.
Jim Jordan (House Judiciary, R-OH)
Since 2020, Jordan's campaign and affiliated PACs have received over $15,000 from PACs or lobbyists tied to Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Meta.
Google's PAC alone has given him over $35,000 since 2012.
He's also tied to Heritage Foundation and Koch-network circles that have taken large tech donations ($1.5M+ from Google, $275K from Facebook to Heritage) and lobbied against antitrust reform — an indirect but well-documented influence channel. (These are the most recent figures I could confirm; more current 2025–26-cycle-specific tech totals weren't available in searchable form.)
Chuck Grassley (Senate Judiciary, R-IA)
I could not pull a reliable tech-specific PAC figure for him this cycle — OpenSecrets' relevant pages are JavaScript-rendered and blocked automated fetching. What is public: he chairs Judiciary's oversight of Big Tech on kids'-safety and Section 230 issues, and has co-sponsored bills to repeal Section 230 immunity, which cuts against a simple "bought off" narrative for him specifically.
Caveat worth flagging: FEC full-cycle data for 2025–2026 won't be finalized until after the 2026 election, so these are still-developing totals, not final numbers. If you want, I can try pulling the FEC.gov itemized filings directly (fec.gov is more scrape-friendly than OpenSecrets) for a cleaner apples-to-apples comparison across all four.
It might also be useful to track Republican Senator or Congressional candidates in key swing states, which you know better than I. Particularly interested in those candidates that are currently House or Senate members.
Can I do any further research for you?
Eight straight hours for a 3-month-old is cause for a huge HUGE victory dance.
SCORE!
I am surprised how many voters remain loyal to Trump. This partly reflects that the loudest Dem voices are too extreme and don’t try to speak for pragmatic middle America.
1 out of 6 wouldn't vote for him again; that means 5 would. Honest to God it's baffling.
As people involved in politics discover, when the baby’s born, they’re the candidate, you’re staff.
I’m flabbergasted that it is only 1 in 6. The republican propaganda machine does its work well. I wish dems were as capable.
Be careful what you wish for...
GEM: I think you make an unintentional error in reporting the U-MASS poll (shown with *** below.) You say in your post that "Anyway, I was reminded of all of this Trump regret polling this morning when a new UMass Amherst poll came through my inbox on early release late last night. ***According to the new poll, only about one in six Trump voters say they’d support him in a redo election.***" Can that be right? It's the opposite of what you say at the top of your piece - that one in six Trump 2024 voters wouldn't support him. Am I confused here?
Yup, that caught my eye, too. Guessing it's a typo from lack of sleep. Hoping for your sake and your wife's that the 3-month old gets consistent with eight hours of sleep a night.
But the more important question is, would they still vote for someone like him or someone who served in his administration?
86% of Trump voters Would vote for him again today. There fixed it. And I’m not so sure the 14% who say they wouldn’t vote for him today wouldn’t actually vote for him tomorrow.
Is there an empirical way to analyze how in hell only 14% of his 2024 supporters wouldn't vote for Trump today? Given the quickly emerging rise of oligarchy and loss of democracy, how can so many ignore this political change, involving especially the destruction of LBJ's Great Society programs?
I bet there has been work done on this subject somewhere. I can’t figure these folks out myself. I live in Oklahoma and any theories I have are based on my own anecdotal research. But I can say that they live in information bubbles and don’t really understand what is happening. They are also extremely tribal and have been trained to be afraid of Democrats, “social programs” (even if they benefit from them), black people, immigrants, gay and trans people, people with religions that aren’t Christianity or atheists, homeless people, I could go on but you get the idea. Basically, years and years of right wing propaganda and a base level racism makes progress a really long and slow proposition. It’s sad and depressing but I try not to let it get me down. At least young people don’t seem to buy all the prejudice so much. But that’s what I thought of people my own age in the 70s, 80s, 90s. Don’t know what makes folks turn into assholes really???