My conclusion from your analysis is that Trump finally did something intelligent (probably inadvertently) when he scheduled his Trumpsaloser against the replay of the Super Bowl so no one would watch it.
It seems to me that while this analysis suggests that efforts by the GOP to motivate the segment of low-information, low-propensity voters will be counter-productive, it also suggests that voter suppression could be highly effective in this environment.
Thank you again for this great work. I found in analyzing open-ends to the question "what message would you send to President Trump?" that Republicans split into two groups - those who wrote to Trump as if he is their ally and those who write to Trump as if he is their employee. The second group is much more hostile and are responding to the actual Trump second term as opposed to the theoretical one that existed in 2024 and early 2025. In followup polling, about 2/3rds of Republicans see him as an ally and 1/3 as an employee. The employee voters are like what you discuss here. They are less likely to vote and much more critical. When looking as less motivated voters, you see it there too. The motivated Republican identifies as MAGA and the non motivated don't. And for the most part, the nonmotivated/Trump employee voter like specific Republicans on the ballot even less than they do Trump.
I am struck, although I shouldn't be, about how much this is not part of the punditry narrative. Anyone paying attention to the "convention" and would even get information from it is already voting and highly motivated. They won't decide anything.
My one hope for 2026 is that all the half-baked and wrong stories that were told after 2024 get put to bed for good and we can start analyzing the present and future on their own terms.
I’d be interested to you your thoughts on groups trying to reach/sway these specific voters. My organization (Cartoons for Democracy) tries to build strategies from columns like yours among others, and I am unsure if you are suggesting there is value in targeting this group. As an example instead of focusing GOTV of democrats, we write to people in the middle identified as “lean republican,” “lean democrat” and independents, especially those who are registered but skipped voting in 2024. The messaging varies depending on the district but often focus on failure of accountability of a republican rep, or in the case of Spanish language voters, that they are valued and pointing them to legit Spanish language voter websites. I’d be curious in your thoughts on that as a strategy.
You are truly a gem, Mr. Morris. May all of your thoroughly dissected data and prognostications come true!
We are all on tenterhooks as we hope and pray that the elections result in Democratic control of the House and Senate. It's the minimum thrust we need to turn the ship of state back toward truth and hope and a better future for all.
Of course, we all know that Republicans are doing everything they can to cheat: lying about the economy, stealing seats through gerrymanders, bullying legislators and voters with bogus mail-in ballot "rules", promising $5K bribes.
I think it's tough to be optimistic, even in the face of good polling news, because we all got kicked in the face so hard two years ago.
The kick in the face is so apt to what I felt.I thought I was an outlier. Joining multiple Substack comment communities has taught me that I am not alone.
1) I thought it was already well understood (from work here) that low knowledge voters were the swing, and that they went from tipping the vote for Trump to strongly against him
2) Republicans at least are acting like they know this already — by making it generally harder to vote they want to keep away low turnout voters — surely the Democrats can see that? (Or are they too inward looking and think those impediments are only about blocking Democrats?)
3) I was struck as much by the percentages of low turnout voters — not as large a group as I would have expected from recent media coverage, which suggests many more Trump voters disapprove and will just stay home (put another way, the small group of “Definitely Will Vote” who disfavor Trump — are the votes the Democrats should count on? I doubt it
4) On the “anti-status quo”: I have said for well over a decade that the most important political “party” in the US is the “throw the bums out party” — who instinctively figure out that whoever may be in power is to blame for all unhappiness, so let’s punish them and pick the other party. That’s what keeps taking us from guardrail to guardrail. It’s a problem we need to correct if democracy is to survive.
I don't fully accept the premise of today's piece. Yes, low turnout Rs are unhappy with the economy, but half of them still approve of Trump's overall handling of the presidency. To my eye that doesn't bode well for the supposed blue wave coming in November. Today people are first and foremost partisans. The question isn't who they'll vote for; they'll mostly vote for whoever is wearing their team's jersey. The question is whether they'll go to the polls. The voters in today's essay already show a propensity to stay home. Let's hope they do.
Hi JE. I could have explained the math a little better here. If Republicans are adding to their group of highly engaged, highly partisan current voters, a group of less engaged, less partisan (and more likely to vote democratic) group, that will only increase their overall vote share for November if they assume there is no equal increase in turnout probability for low-turnout Dems, which is not obviously the case. At any rate, it’s a gamble.
My conclusion from your analysis is that Trump finally did something intelligent (probably inadvertently) when he scheduled his Trumpsaloser against the replay of the Super Bowl so no one would watch it.
You are my kind of nerd. Thank you
It seems to me that while this analysis suggests that efforts by the GOP to motivate the segment of low-information, low-propensity voters will be counter-productive, it also suggests that voter suppression could be highly effective in this environment.
Thank you again for this great work. I found in analyzing open-ends to the question "what message would you send to President Trump?" that Republicans split into two groups - those who wrote to Trump as if he is their ally and those who write to Trump as if he is their employee. The second group is much more hostile and are responding to the actual Trump second term as opposed to the theoretical one that existed in 2024 and early 2025. In followup polling, about 2/3rds of Republicans see him as an ally and 1/3 as an employee. The employee voters are like what you discuss here. They are less likely to vote and much more critical. When looking as less motivated voters, you see it there too. The motivated Republican identifies as MAGA and the non motivated don't. And for the most part, the nonmotivated/Trump employee voter like specific Republicans on the ballot even less than they do Trump.
I am struck, although I shouldn't be, about how much this is not part of the punditry narrative. Anyone paying attention to the "convention" and would even get information from it is already voting and highly motivated. They won't decide anything.
My one hope for 2026 is that all the half-baked and wrong stories that were told after 2024 get put to bed for good and we can start analyzing the present and future on their own terms.
I’d be interested to you your thoughts on groups trying to reach/sway these specific voters. My organization (Cartoons for Democracy) tries to build strategies from columns like yours among others, and I am unsure if you are suggesting there is value in targeting this group. As an example instead of focusing GOTV of democrats, we write to people in the middle identified as “lean republican,” “lean democrat” and independents, especially those who are registered but skipped voting in 2024. The messaging varies depending on the district but often focus on failure of accountability of a republican rep, or in the case of Spanish language voters, that they are valued and pointing them to legit Spanish language voter websites. I’d be curious in your thoughts on that as a strategy.
If this analysis is correct (and I trust that it is), then let's have a "Trumpalooza" every week between now and the election.
a. Maybe you said this and I missed it - they may be "disengaged" *because* they disapprove.
b. As you have pointed out, disapproving of Trump does not mean voting for Dems in the midterm.
You are truly a gem, Mr. Morris. May all of your thoroughly dissected data and prognostications come true!
We are all on tenterhooks as we hope and pray that the elections result in Democratic control of the House and Senate. It's the minimum thrust we need to turn the ship of state back toward truth and hope and a better future for all.
Of course, we all know that Republicans are doing everything they can to cheat: lying about the economy, stealing seats through gerrymanders, bullying legislators and voters with bogus mail-in ballot "rules", promising $5K bribes.
I think it's tough to be optimistic, even in the face of good polling news, because we all got kicked in the face so hard two years ago.
The kick in the face is so apt to what I felt.I thought I was an outlier. Joining multiple Substack comment communities has taught me that I am not alone.
I’m confused by the implications of this column.
1) I thought it was already well understood (from work here) that low knowledge voters were the swing, and that they went from tipping the vote for Trump to strongly against him
2) Republicans at least are acting like they know this already — by making it generally harder to vote they want to keep away low turnout voters — surely the Democrats can see that? (Or are they too inward looking and think those impediments are only about blocking Democrats?)
3) I was struck as much by the percentages of low turnout voters — not as large a group as I would have expected from recent media coverage, which suggests many more Trump voters disapprove and will just stay home (put another way, the small group of “Definitely Will Vote” who disfavor Trump — are the votes the Democrats should count on? I doubt it
4) On the “anti-status quo”: I have said for well over a decade that the most important political “party” in the US is the “throw the bums out party” — who instinctively figure out that whoever may be in power is to blame for all unhappiness, so let’s punish them and pick the other party. That’s what keeps taking us from guardrail to guardrail. It’s a problem we need to correct if democracy is to survive.
+ on number 4. This will be the motivating force in the 2028 democratic presidential primary
Agree that we need to vote FOR something instead of always AGAINST something.
I don't fully accept the premise of today's piece. Yes, low turnout Rs are unhappy with the economy, but half of them still approve of Trump's overall handling of the presidency. To my eye that doesn't bode well for the supposed blue wave coming in November. Today people are first and foremost partisans. The question isn't who they'll vote for; they'll mostly vote for whoever is wearing their team's jersey. The question is whether they'll go to the polls. The voters in today's essay already show a propensity to stay home. Let's hope they do.
Hi JE. I could have explained the math a little better here. If Republicans are adding to their group of highly engaged, highly partisan current voters, a group of less engaged, less partisan (and more likely to vote democratic) group, that will only increase their overall vote share for November if they assume there is no equal increase in turnout probability for low-turnout Dems, which is not obviously the case. At any rate, it’s a gamble.
Thanks; I was a little confused about that too!