One thing I've been wondering: if Democrats do as well as polls seem to suggest they will in 2026 (knock on wood), how much of that performance can be repeated in 2028? Is a 2008-like performance still achievable, or is the presidential-year electorate just too polarized now?
It matters because if 2028 is closer to a neutral year, those red state gerrymanders will pack more of a punch. Some further blue and/or purple state retaliation is possible, even likely, but I'm not sure it will be enough to fully counteract the effects.
The "great recruitment" is a byproduct of the patriotism of Democratic candidates, who are stepping forward to save our country in its hour of need. Some would not have considered running in less perilous times. Many would prefer to spend their time in less demanding and hazardous occupations. The rest of us should be deeply grateful to them.
The claim is that primary electorates differ in important ways (demographically, ideologically, etc.) from general election electorates. That doesn’t necessarily mean that primary electorates aren’t making decisions with that broader electorate in mind. In a number of Democratic primaries (e.g., WI governor), they clearly did.
I think this has alot to do with open v closed primaries. When you cut out the independent vote for closed primaries you miss an important swath of the electorate. Would love Elliott’s thoughts on this.
One thing I've been wondering: if Democrats do as well as polls seem to suggest they will in 2026 (knock on wood), how much of that performance can be repeated in 2028? Is a 2008-like performance still achievable, or is the presidential-year electorate just too polarized now?
It matters because if 2028 is closer to a neutral year, those red state gerrymanders will pack more of a punch. Some further blue and/or purple state retaliation is possible, even likely, but I'm not sure it will be enough to fully counteract the effects.
The "great recruitment" is a byproduct of the patriotism of Democratic candidates, who are stepping forward to save our country in its hour of need. Some would not have considered running in less perilous times. Many would prefer to spend their time in less demanding and hazardous occupations. The rest of us should be deeply grateful to them.
Fabulous discussion many thanks! Unprecedented analysis! You are simply the very best!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ra12L1Bl0Z4
There is a conundrum here: Dems have great candidates this cycle, but you also claim that primaries are not reflecting the voters
The claim is that primary electorates differ in important ways (demographically, ideologically, etc.) from general election electorates. That doesn’t necessarily mean that primary electorates aren’t making decisions with that broader electorate in mind. In a number of Democratic primaries (e.g., WI governor), they clearly did.
well put sam. thanks
I think this has alot to do with open v closed primaries. When you cut out the independent vote for closed primaries you miss an important swath of the electorate. Would love Elliott’s thoughts on this.