On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott Morris and David Nir dig into the latest batch of good news for Democrats: an all-time low for Trump's approval rating in our monthly Strength in Numbers/Verasight poll; a record Democratic lead on the generic ballot; and a flurry of Senate polls showing the party competitive in states as red as Texas, Iowa, Ohio, and Kansas. We ask if this is what the political environment felt like in past wave elections, such as 2018—or even 2006.
We also share previously unreleased polling on Trump's promise to send every American a $5,000 check if his party wins the midterms (teaser: it doesn’t poll well!); answer your questions about the new New York Times/Siena poll in Maine; and respond to a recent piece arguing that polling has become a playground for grifters, liars, and frauds. Elliott thinks social media is the problem, not polling.
This video is free to watch, but it was not free to produce. If you value this podcast and want to help keep it going, please consider becoming a premium subscriber to Strength In Numbers. Paid subscriptions keep the show ad-free, fund the newsletter, and ensure we have the time it takes to do original data-driven analysis of politics and elections. Paying subscribers also gain the ability to send in questions during our livestreams, so you can directly shape our conversations on the podcast.
A few big takeaways from the conversation:
Republicans continue to slide in the polls. According to Elliott’s election model, Democrats now have about a 70% chance of winning complete control of Congress this November. Trump’s net approval (-28 on average) is nearly three times worse than it was before the 2018 midterms, and Republicans are sweating races like Kansas Senate and Oklahoma’s 5th District (the latter of which Trump won by 18 points in 2026).
Our new poll finds that voters saw Trump’s $5,000 checks as a bribe. Trump’s approval is 33% with 63% disapproving in our September Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll, and Democrats lead the generic ballot by 10 among likely voters. Trump’s promise to send every American adult $5,000 if Republicans win the midterm is underwater by 18 points generally, with 66% of U.S. adults (64% of Republicans) calling it inappropriate. A plurality of Republicans believe Trump made his promise just to win more votes and doesn’t intend to actually send checks.
One poll shouldn’t move your priors much, but the race can still move a lot by November. A new New York Times/Siena poll out today showing Susan Collins up 3 points in Maine moves the average in the state by about half a point in isolation. Senate polling averages have historically shifted about 4.5 points in the final six weeks. There is a correct balance between updating your beliefs the right amount given new data (a small amount, IF you have a lot of data) and being open to the possibility of big changes in the future.
Fake “polls” are a problem with social media, not polling itself. Elliott responds to a piece arguing that polling has been polluted by grifters and frauds. But fake and AI-generated polls spread mostly through low-quality aggregator accounts on X, and web panels from quality pollsters have been at least as accurate as phone polls in recent years. The fix for this is better gatekeeping, and critics have to be careful not to discredit polls more broadly.
Thanks to everyone who joined us for the weekly livestream on Substack. We’ll be back next week!
As a reminder, paid subscribers to Strength In Numbers get to participate in our live Q&A! If you missed our video livestream, you can watch it by clicking play on the web version of this post at gelliottmorris.com.
You can also subscribe to us on your favorite podcast app to listen on your own time. And if you do listen via one of those apps, please drop us a five-star rating and review if you feel we’ve earned it — it really helps people discover the show!
You can read the transcript of our conversation by clicking the headline of this article to take you to the web version of the podcast, then clicking the button just below the byline that looks either like a piece of paper or is labeled “Transcript,” like so:
If you’re a reader of Strength in Numbers and haven’t yet subscribed to David’s newsletter, head to the-downballot.com.
And if you’re coming from David’s site, subscribe here to get the numbers behind the news.
