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edward schneier's avatar

Your snake model is wonderfully vivid. Nice work.

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Elliot's avatar

I want to see what the race looks like in a week. If Biden regains some of his pre-convention support because Trump's convention bounce is fading, Trump has major problems. Trump's convention bounce didn't have Trump take the lead in keys states like PA and FL. If this is supposed to be one of Trump's best polling week or best two weeks, he isn't in good shape.

There could be an September/October surprise which could change of course of the election. The Woodward Book? Ron Johnson's committee investigation? The Durham Report? Or maybe the debates change the election? Due to polarization, maybe these potential events won't change the election.

My guess is the election won't really move that much for the rest of the race and Biden is headed for a 7 to 8 percent popular vote victory and will flip MI, WI, PA, and FL, and likely AZ and perhaps NC. We'll see.

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