I think we are shortly entering a timespan when all of this becomes increasingly just an intellectual exercise as early voting begins. The early vote is supposed to be record-breaking this year, with Democrats expressing more enthusiasm than Republicans per the WA Post.
Will there be data available on early voting? And if so, how would that affect election outcome models?
Is it me, or does it look like polls are getting a little tighter in Florida eroding Biden's advantage there? Probably need another week worth's of data. If FL is in danger other tight states could follow....
Jorge: It's not just you! Polls in Florida have definitely tightened. At the same time, Biden's lead has grown modeslty in some other states (AZ esp), offsetting some of that tightening and causing only minor changes in the aggregate odds.
Thanks, and another (possibly dum) question: In the states that are not under contest the number of polls seems less frequent. Could this lead to overconfidence? For example, in MD there seems to be only one poll since March (mid May), but your model is still pretty confident that Biden will win there by 25 points. Is this based on historical records, or drawing from polls in neighboring states that are highly correlated with MD?
I want to see what the race looks like in a week. If Biden regains some of his pre-convention support because Trump's convention bounce is fading, Trump has major problems. Trump's convention bounce didn't have Trump take the lead in keys states like PA and FL. If this is supposed to be one of Trump's best polling week or best two weeks, he isn't in good shape.
There could be an September/October surprise which could change of course of the election. The Woodward Book? Ron Johnson's committee investigation? The Durham Report? Or maybe the debates change the election? Due to polarization, maybe these potential events won't change the election.
My guess is the election won't really move that much for the rest of the race and Biden is headed for a 7 to 8 percent popular vote victory and will flip MI, WI, PA, and FL, and likely AZ and perhaps NC. We'll see.
I think we are shortly entering a timespan when all of this becomes increasingly just an intellectual exercise as early voting begins. The early vote is supposed to be record-breaking this year, with Democrats expressing more enthusiasm than Republicans per the WA Post.
Will there be data available on early voting? And if so, how would that affect election outcome models?
Is it me, or does it look like polls are getting a little tighter in Florida eroding Biden's advantage there? Probably need another week worth's of data. If FL is in danger other tight states could follow....
Jorge: It's not just you! Polls in Florida have definitely tightened. At the same time, Biden's lead has grown modeslty in some other states (AZ esp), offsetting some of that tightening and causing only minor changes in the aggregate odds.
Thanks, and another (possibly dum) question: In the states that are not under contest the number of polls seems less frequent. Could this lead to overconfidence? For example, in MD there seems to be only one poll since March (mid May), but your model is still pretty confident that Biden will win there by 25 points. Is this based on historical records, or drawing from polls in neighboring states that are highly correlated with MD?
Your snake model is wonderfully vivid. Nice work.
That's 538's snake. I think it's a bit too playful but certainly vivid.
I want to see what the race looks like in a week. If Biden regains some of his pre-convention support because Trump's convention bounce is fading, Trump has major problems. Trump's convention bounce didn't have Trump take the lead in keys states like PA and FL. If this is supposed to be one of Trump's best polling week or best two weeks, he isn't in good shape.
There could be an September/October surprise which could change of course of the election. The Woodward Book? Ron Johnson's committee investigation? The Durham Report? Or maybe the debates change the election? Due to polarization, maybe these potential events won't change the election.
My guess is the election won't really move that much for the rest of the race and Biden is headed for a 7 to 8 percent popular vote victory and will flip MI, WI, PA, and FL, and likely AZ and perhaps NC. We'll see.