The backlash to ABC/Disney canceling Kimmel shows why it's important for businesses and the public to understand that two-thirds of Americans are not Trump voters
4 million more people voted for Biden in 2020, than voted for Trump in 2024. That's a fairly large set of those who have turned out to vote, but wouldn't vote for Trump.
The Pew News Media Tracker has 46% of Democrats getting their news from ABC, but just 27% of Republicans going to that network. Sure looks like Disney miscalculated, unless somewhere in their business model they think there's a payoff.
Thanks much for your informed insight into the attitudes of the network executives.
You miss an important point about why all the major media corporations are caving to Trump. It's not the threat of lawsuits which they would win. It's that they are all in merger negotiations as the industry consolidated and Trump has threatened to use the federal government power to stop the mergers or, at the very least, delay them for years. That's the real threat.
Thanks for these insights. While it is clearly impossible to generalize or make predictions about elections at this juncture in our national saga, is there data that links voter turnout to the strength of negative feelings towards a particular candidate? Stated differently, are the 48% of voters (or people who are eligible to vote) who strongly disapprove of Trump more likely to actually show up and cast ballots than they would otherwise?
There have been so many examples of how Trump eventually trounces those who supported him. And at the same time, many examples if how pushback has worked. You'd think these companies would have gotten the message by now. What is galling is the number of folks in business and in politics who think the American people are stupid.
I love that you have the background in "Big News" so you can explain why they make nonsensical-seeming decisions. A very helpful perspective! Thank you!
Let’s be honest, the average exec at these companies is a middle aged or older white guy who lives in a Trump-leaning bubble in their friends and country clubs and so forth. They don’t get out of it enough to truly believe that is a minority, at least of the people who “matter”.
Thank you for this analysis. I live in a red state( formerly purple) and have felt that Trump and the MAGA leadership here were losing appeal but fear and uncertainty were interfering with more overt expressions of these sentiments. Your data and analysis have validated some of Trump's policies unpopularity.
While I think this may all be true, I don't think Trump's popularity is the right framing for considering Disney/Iger's decision. They are largely considering the emboldenment of the MAGA movement. Starbucks, Target, universities, and others, and now Disney aren't reacting specifically to Trump, but to the broader movement around him and it's been going on for quite some time (i.e., eliminating DEI initiatives). What's interesting is that I think do think Disney's fate may be similar to Target's fate where they essentially scorned their primary demographics to appease a movement that didn't care about their brands anyway.
Hi, Elliott - I think you're right that the mainstream media and a lot of D.C. political pundits on their own substack spaces don't understand or accept that they are basically buggy whips now. My concern is that the coming state and midterm elections will be corrupted - are being corrupted - by gerrymandering, rigging of polling places, blocking of voters and of polling places, no enforcement against armed thugs near polling places, federal calls to eliminate vote by mail, and a few other tricks I haven't thought of.
Many people do not watch the late-night shows on television. I watched some when I lived in a central time zone because they were on an hour earlier there--10:30 as opposed to 11:30. However, I do watch them on You Tube the next day, and so do many other people. (Before there was You Tube, there was the VCR and DVD recording.) The Jimmy Kimmel show, when I looked a couple of days ago, had 20.8 million subscribers. That's a lot of people that Disney has angered.
Thank you for your very understandable analysis. I love how you graph it and do clear bullet points for people like me who want to understand, but don't have the patience for complicated in-the-weeds analysis. Yay you!
4 million more people voted for Biden in 2020, than voted for Trump in 2024. That's a fairly large set of those who have turned out to vote, but wouldn't vote for Trump.
The Pew News Media Tracker has 46% of Democrats getting their news from ABC, but just 27% of Republicans going to that network. Sure looks like Disney miscalculated, unless somewhere in their business model they think there's a payoff.
Thanks much for your informed insight into the attitudes of the network executives.
You miss an important point about why all the major media corporations are caving to Trump. It's not the threat of lawsuits which they would win. It's that they are all in merger negotiations as the industry consolidated and Trump has threatened to use the federal government power to stop the mergers or, at the very least, delay them for years. That's the real threat.
I believe I mentioned the Paramount-Skydance merger!
Thanks for these insights. While it is clearly impossible to generalize or make predictions about elections at this juncture in our national saga, is there data that links voter turnout to the strength of negative feelings towards a particular candidate? Stated differently, are the 48% of voters (or people who are eligible to vote) who strongly disapprove of Trump more likely to actually show up and cast ballots than they would otherwise?
This is something we are going to look at this Nov!
There have been so many examples of how Trump eventually trounces those who supported him. And at the same time, many examples if how pushback has worked. You'd think these companies would have gotten the message by now. What is galling is the number of folks in business and in politics who think the American people are stupid.
Could fear of losing advertisers maybe also be driving some of this?
I love that you have the background in "Big News" so you can explain why they make nonsensical-seeming decisions. A very helpful perspective! Thank you!
Let’s be honest, the average exec at these companies is a middle aged or older white guy who lives in a Trump-leaning bubble in their friends and country clubs and so forth. They don’t get out of it enough to truly believe that is a minority, at least of the people who “matter”.
this is not my experience, as far as demographics go
This study, https://nationaldiversityconference.com/2023/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/2023-diversity-first-top-50-companies-furtune-500-overview.pdf, indicates 59% white men. I can’t assess the quality of it, but it certainly does reflect my experience. Anyway, lots of potential reasons.
Thank you for this analysis. I live in a red state( formerly purple) and have felt that Trump and the MAGA leadership here were losing appeal but fear and uncertainty were interfering with more overt expressions of these sentiments. Your data and analysis have validated some of Trump's policies unpopularity.
While I think this may all be true, I don't think Trump's popularity is the right framing for considering Disney/Iger's decision. They are largely considering the emboldenment of the MAGA movement. Starbucks, Target, universities, and others, and now Disney aren't reacting specifically to Trump, but to the broader movement around him and it's been going on for quite some time (i.e., eliminating DEI initiatives). What's interesting is that I think do think Disney's fate may be similar to Target's fate where they essentially scorned their primary demographics to appease a movement that didn't care about their brands anyway.
Hi, Elliott - I think you're right that the mainstream media and a lot of D.C. political pundits on their own substack spaces don't understand or accept that they are basically buggy whips now. My concern is that the coming state and midterm elections will be corrupted - are being corrupted - by gerrymandering, rigging of polling places, blocking of voters and of polling places, no enforcement against armed thugs near polling places, federal calls to eliminate vote by mail, and a few other tricks I haven't thought of.
Don't forget declaring martial law! Will be wild
i think people are right to be worried about cheating, and i don't have a lot of reassuring things to say on the matter https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-makes-himself-the-referee?utm_source=publication-search
Many people do not watch the late-night shows on television. I watched some when I lived in a central time zone because they were on an hour earlier there--10:30 as opposed to 11:30. However, I do watch them on You Tube the next day, and so do many other people. (Before there was You Tube, there was the VCR and DVD recording.) The Jimmy Kimmel show, when I looked a couple of days ago, had 20.8 million subscribers. That's a lot of people that Disney has angered.
yes, i'm asleep before the shows even come on...
Thank you for your very understandable analysis. I love how you graph it and do clear bullet points for people like me who want to understand, but don't have the patience for complicated in-the-weeds analysis. Yay you!
strength in numbers is a big tent newsletter