It's good to see Trump's numbers go down of course because it makes me feel less alone in disagreeing with what's happened. What's disconcerting is how similar the numbers are to Trump's first term. I don't think that's TDS at play for me but more that what he's doing around immigration and policing particularly are so much more extreme, it seems like public opinion is being dragged along by Trump's excesses.
I'm not sure how you'd quantify this enough to do an analysis, but does this mean that the same 40% that weren't put off by family separation are now okay with that excessive brutality the Chicago court pointed to? Or is there some other explanation for why the polling stays in the same ballpark and what we're seeing is less objective analysis of what's happening and something more tribal, or even motivated reasoning of being in denial about what "their" guy is truly doing? I'd be interested in any insight into the relatively moderate poll numbers, if you've got anything to say along those lines.
Thank you to Strength in Numbers for again bringing clear data about Americans attitudes toward the illegal use of the military. (ICE is also being allowed to operate outside the legal framework, but that is another issue.)
In Shakespeare's Richard III, as Richard is in the final stages of taking the throne, he no longer acts covertly but forces his reality onto the people around him. (See the scene where he is supposedly "forced" to accept the crown in what is clearly a staged scene by Richard and Buckingham.)
Trump started by creating a reality that he knew was false and through repetition by him and his followers, and too much of mainstream media, tried to make it real. At some point, it becomes unclear whether he has lost touch with what is real and now believes his own fantasy, especially with so many sycophants reinforcing him. While Trump watches too much FOX news, with its doctored video, Heather Cox Richardson has suggested that the people around him may be showing more doctored stuff to him as a way of shoring up their own power as Trump's health declines. Kristi Noem went to Portland. She saw that there was nothing to see there, but she came back and reported that Portland "hid" it from her while she was there and then spun a story about arresting the girlfriend of one of the founders of the non-existent Antifa. She is clearly speaking to an audience of Vought and Miller.
I find it misleading to say that Trump ‘lives in a fairy tale world’ when it’s what he’s attempting to make others to live in. He’s obviously manufacturing stories of uncontrolled violence and mayhem as the pretext for quelling this make-believe violence with boots on the ground. It’s been his MO since day one to manufacture fake emergencies as the justification for taking extraordinary actions that would not otherwise be allowed within our judicial framework.
I'd love to see a pool that asks Americans whether the president should politicize the military by degrading his political adversaries when addressing the military.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll also repeats a result from CBS/YouGov on Sunday that I found interesting - when polled in the abstract about how they perceived of Democrats, Republicans by a 62-38 margin viewed them as political opponents and not dangerous enemies (Democrats, reasonably, were closer to 50-50 in the reverse), but when an openly political poll that asked about Trump's approval, etc. asked about what people saw as the biggest threat to America, 52% of Republicans said domestic enemies, compared to only 29% who said the economy. In the Reuters poll, the first and third questions are less immediately related to Trump's actions than the second, and Republican respondents are much more amenable to the authoritarian position on that middle question (it also doesn't bode well for further GOP congressional support for limiting the use of the Guard if that's how their base feels on the subject).
It's limited data points, but it gives the impression that Americans are, regardless of party, opposed to political violence in the abstract, but once it relates to Trump directly self-identified Republicans are substantially prepared to become authoritarian. It also ties into your piece from a couple of days ago - does the immediacy of Trump's behavior and one's need to be "loyal" override a baseline opposition to political violence by one's own side? Is it an instinct to normalize? An information bubble and disinformation blitz about current events? All of the above?
One correction - under "liberty and Order" paragraph 2, you state 'Another federal judge ruled on Thursday that National Guard troops in Chicago must not stop using “excessive brutality” against the press, clergy, and protesters exercising their First Amendment rights. ' implying they must use excessive brutality. I believe it should be 'Another federal judge ruled on Thursday that National Guard troops in Chicago must stop using “excessive brutality” against the press, clergy, and protesters exercising their First Amendment rights. ' i.e. remove the "not" from "must not stop"
Otherwise good write-up of the situation and the polling.
An unfortunate but prescient typo! We've witnessed the courts playing trump's game for over eight years now, like Susan Collins, "concerned" but let the insurrection continue on appeal. Project 2025 and maga have come too far to stop using excessive brutality, the chaos and brutality are the point!
It's good to see Trump's numbers go down of course because it makes me feel less alone in disagreeing with what's happened. What's disconcerting is how similar the numbers are to Trump's first term. I don't think that's TDS at play for me but more that what he's doing around immigration and policing particularly are so much more extreme, it seems like public opinion is being dragged along by Trump's excesses.
I'm not sure how you'd quantify this enough to do an analysis, but does this mean that the same 40% that weren't put off by family separation are now okay with that excessive brutality the Chicago court pointed to? Or is there some other explanation for why the polling stays in the same ballpark and what we're seeing is less objective analysis of what's happening and something more tribal, or even motivated reasoning of being in denial about what "their" guy is truly doing? I'd be interested in any insight into the relatively moderate poll numbers, if you've got anything to say along those lines.
"What Trump is doing is un-American"... Dude, America did this the whole life in latin America. Now you just are tasting the own medicine
"September poll, conducted online with Verasight"
How is a poll conducted online?
“Deportations are up. Arrests are up.”
Do you happen to have a source for that other than administration statements? ICE’s official Enforcement and Removal Operations dashboard
still only shows data through December 2024 (current as of January 2025).
Thank you to Strength in Numbers for again bringing clear data about Americans attitudes toward the illegal use of the military. (ICE is also being allowed to operate outside the legal framework, but that is another issue.)
In Shakespeare's Richard III, as Richard is in the final stages of taking the throne, he no longer acts covertly but forces his reality onto the people around him. (See the scene where he is supposedly "forced" to accept the crown in what is clearly a staged scene by Richard and Buckingham.)
Trump started by creating a reality that he knew was false and through repetition by him and his followers, and too much of mainstream media, tried to make it real. At some point, it becomes unclear whether he has lost touch with what is real and now believes his own fantasy, especially with so many sycophants reinforcing him. While Trump watches too much FOX news, with its doctored video, Heather Cox Richardson has suggested that the people around him may be showing more doctored stuff to him as a way of shoring up their own power as Trump's health declines. Kristi Noem went to Portland. She saw that there was nothing to see there, but she came back and reported that Portland "hid" it from her while she was there and then spun a story about arresting the girlfriend of one of the founders of the non-existent Antifa. She is clearly speaking to an audience of Vought and Miller.
I find it misleading to say that Trump ‘lives in a fairy tale world’ when it’s what he’s attempting to make others to live in. He’s obviously manufacturing stories of uncontrolled violence and mayhem as the pretext for quelling this make-believe violence with boots on the ground. It’s been his MO since day one to manufacture fake emergencies as the justification for taking extraordinary actions that would not otherwise be allowed within our judicial framework.
I'd love to see a pool that asks Americans whether the president should politicize the military by degrading his political adversaries when addressing the military.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll also repeats a result from CBS/YouGov on Sunday that I found interesting - when polled in the abstract about how they perceived of Democrats, Republicans by a 62-38 margin viewed them as political opponents and not dangerous enemies (Democrats, reasonably, were closer to 50-50 in the reverse), but when an openly political poll that asked about Trump's approval, etc. asked about what people saw as the biggest threat to America, 52% of Republicans said domestic enemies, compared to only 29% who said the economy. In the Reuters poll, the first and third questions are less immediately related to Trump's actions than the second, and Republican respondents are much more amenable to the authoritarian position on that middle question (it also doesn't bode well for further GOP congressional support for limiting the use of the Guard if that's how their base feels on the subject).
It's limited data points, but it gives the impression that Americans are, regardless of party, opposed to political violence in the abstract, but once it relates to Trump directly self-identified Republicans are substantially prepared to become authoritarian. It also ties into your piece from a couple of days ago - does the immediacy of Trump's behavior and one's need to be "loyal" override a baseline opposition to political violence by one's own side? Is it an instinct to normalize? An information bubble and disinformation blitz about current events? All of the above?
One correction - under "liberty and Order" paragraph 2, you state 'Another federal judge ruled on Thursday that National Guard troops in Chicago must not stop using “excessive brutality” against the press, clergy, and protesters exercising their First Amendment rights. ' implying they must use excessive brutality. I believe it should be 'Another federal judge ruled on Thursday that National Guard troops in Chicago must stop using “excessive brutality” against the press, clergy, and protesters exercising their First Amendment rights. ' i.e. remove the "not" from "must not stop"
Otherwise good write-up of the situation and the polling.
I don't see the "not" in this article. Must be it was corrected after you brought it up. Agree...good article.
Good catch, Jeff. We all have to keep our “nots” straight, or we end up tying ourselves in Knots.
We don’t want to Stamp Out Cancer Research in Our Lifetime. We don’t want to Eliminate AIDS Prevention in Africa.
Why haven’t you fixed such a clear error? It completely distorts a very important sentence? Thanks
Should be fixed in the online version!
An unfortunate typo. Thank you Jeff.
An unfortunate but prescient typo! We've witnessed the courts playing trump's game for over eight years now, like Susan Collins, "concerned" but let the insurrection continue on appeal. Project 2025 and maga have come too far to stop using excessive brutality, the chaos and brutality are the point!
Figured it was. You're welcome.