I notice on Bluesky that as of yesterday, people in Tennessee had not seen the video of Alex's murder. They had only seen the government presser. It would seen significant to do a poll question "Have you seen this video?"
Wow, how fun is that?? My area of Kansas (rural west) has Trump approval of 56.7%, with an MOE of 6.5, but STILL. This is in an R+25 district and he's barely over 50%?
Of course we have lots of farms and ranches and oil and gas wells out here, so that would explain a lot.
Thank you, Elliot, this is a great tool, I'll have to bookmark it to spend more time with it!!
A question - is this all adults, registered voters, likely voters? You say voters in one place but your charts by demographic segments includes those who didn't vote in 2024.
Democrats could benefit a lot from a massive investment in voter outreach and registration in Texas. The gap between the adult population and the electorate there has to be among the biggest in the country on a regular basis.
GREAT work producing the interactive map and supporting data. Thanks! Hope the DNC, State Democratic Parties and D candidates throughout the country will pay attention to this.
What's up with South Carolina, map makes it look like a New England state; hope that's true. Disappointed with Kansas and Nebraska, which I thought were fed up with Trump.
I think there’s a big gap in some of these states between the adult population and the electorate (Texas, South Carolina, Miss, etc) and a smaller gap in other (mostly whiter!) states. Effective voter registration and outreach is so important
This is very interesting! I hope you use more “traditional” (or totally different) colors next time! We are now used to blue being Dems/red being GOP. To have it the opposite (dems/blue; GOP/orange) makes interpreting it much less intuitive! Thanks!
It can certainly be hard to understand, but we needn't bother with the last 30% of die-hard MAGA. They aren't going to determine much of anything outside of some local elections. Hopefully, eventually, they will come to embrace a party that is truly conservative AND pro-democracy.
What I don't get is how Texas, with most of its voter-dense big cities trending blue, is still such a red state. I understand the gerrymandering, but in the general elections, it looks like Dems should have a better chance of prevailing.
And Mississippi and Iowa look like there would be more Dems winning in statewide races as well.
So I guess my question is "how many of the voters in these states are reliably showing up at the polls during elections?"
And maybe voter turnout is the whole key to getting our country back on track?
Turnout is part of it, but probably also there's a significant difference between approval and voting behavior. If you know (as I think most of us know) Democrats who disapproved of Biden's performance but voted for Harris 2024 anyway because the alternative was so awful, it should make sense that there are a bunch of people who think analogously on the other side too. So the question is what, if any, Democrat could give them the psychological permission structure to translate their disapproval of Trump into a vote against the party that they probably feel is part of their general social identity.
I particularly thought MS looked odd in either version of the map. Maybe there are more people near Memphis than it seems. Most of the other spots in the country made sense to me.
I notice on Bluesky that as of yesterday, people in Tennessee had not seen the video of Alex's murder. They had only seen the government presser. It would seen significant to do a poll question "Have you seen this video?"
Thank you so much for doing things like this! Much appreciated!
Wow, how fun is that?? My area of Kansas (rural west) has Trump approval of 56.7%, with an MOE of 6.5, but STILL. This is in an R+25 district and he's barely over 50%?
Of course we have lots of farms and ranches and oil and gas wells out here, so that would explain a lot.
Thank you, Elliot, this is a great tool, I'll have to bookmark it to spend more time with it!!
the toggle doesnt work on your strength in numbers, only on the other site
Thanks for all this work.
A question - is this all adults, registered voters, likely voters? You say voters in one place but your charts by demographic segments includes those who didn't vote in 2024.
Democrats could benefit a lot from a massive investment in voter outreach and registration in Texas. The gap between the adult population and the electorate there has to be among the biggest in the country on a regular basis.
You are the BEST!
Wow, this is impressive! Thank you for creating and sharing this. I especially love the cartographic view.
Based on the map of Trump approval, if we assume those who approve of him now will vote R in 2028, can you predict who wins Electoral College?
Elon muskrat and rigged starlink
GREAT work producing the interactive map and supporting data. Thanks! Hope the DNC, State Democratic Parties and D candidates throughout the country will pay attention to this.
They won't!
These new graphic tools are tremendously helpful in understanding what is happening. Thank you for this!
What's up with South Carolina, map makes it look like a New England state; hope that's true. Disappointed with Kansas and Nebraska, which I thought were fed up with Trump.
I think there’s a big gap in some of these states between the adult population and the electorate (Texas, South Carolina, Miss, etc) and a smaller gap in other (mostly whiter!) states. Effective voter registration and outreach is so important
This is very interesting! I hope you use more “traditional” (or totally different) colors next time! We are now used to blue being Dems/red being GOP. To have it the opposite (dems/blue; GOP/orange) makes interpreting it much less intuitive! Thanks!
Really interesting. I’m a little concerned by the tenacity of Trump voters.
It can certainly be hard to understand, but we needn't bother with the last 30% of die-hard MAGA. They aren't going to determine much of anything outside of some local elections. Hopefully, eventually, they will come to embrace a party that is truly conservative AND pro-democracy.
Hate, greed and stupidity, bigotry, misogyny... not tenacity.
Love the map.
What I don't get is how Texas, with most of its voter-dense big cities trending blue, is still such a red state. I understand the gerrymandering, but in the general elections, it looks like Dems should have a better chance of prevailing.
And Mississippi and Iowa look like there would be more Dems winning in statewide races as well.
So I guess my question is "how many of the voters in these states are reliably showing up at the polls during elections?"
And maybe voter turnout is the whole key to getting our country back on track?
Turnout is part of it, but probably also there's a significant difference between approval and voting behavior. If you know (as I think most of us know) Democrats who disapproved of Biden's performance but voted for Harris 2024 anyway because the alternative was so awful, it should make sense that there are a bunch of people who think analogously on the other side too. So the question is what, if any, Democrat could give them the psychological permission structure to translate their disapproval of Trump into a vote against the party that they probably feel is part of their general social identity.
I particularly thought MS looked odd in either version of the map. Maybe there are more people near Memphis than it seems. Most of the other spots in the country made sense to me.
Isn't 40% of voters enough to win the Electoral College?