All the polls on the government shutdown so far | Weekly roundup for October 5, 2025
Also this week: Dems lead in Virginia election polling; economic sentiment is down; people are turning against sports betting; + more!
Dear readers,
This week’s chart Sunday roundup looks at all the shutdown polling released since federal government funding lapsed on Wednesday at midnight. The general consensus of these surveys is that Republicans are getting more blame for the funding lapse than Democrats so far, though there are some interesting wrinkles to this story.
On deck this week: An essay about why most polls exaggerate support for political violence, why this is important, and a plea to journalists to acknowledge this.
Republicans blamed more for shutdown than Democrats, so far
Our Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll for September found voters pre-emptively assigning more blame to Republican politicians than Democrats for a potential government shutdown. Additionally, a majority of voters said Democrats should fight for health care funding, including expiring ACA subsidies and cuts to Medicaid in Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” passed in July.
Does that result still hold up? Here’s a look at all the polls about the government shutdown published this week. There is a clear winner:
Washington Post: 47% blame Republicans + Trump, 30% Democrats
A New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted before the shutdown, found 26% of voters said they’d blame Republicans for one, 19% said Democrats, and 33% assigned blame to both parties equally.
A PBS/NPR/Marist College poll puts this split at 38% Republicans, 27% Democrats, 31% both.
A YouGov/The Economist poll, also fielded before the shutdown, also has the Republicans getting more blame for the shutdown — with 33% of adults blaming Republicans more, 27% blaming Democrats more, and 31% who say both parties deserve equal blame.
A memo from Blueprint Research found independents would split 49% to 26% in putting blame on Republicans.
Finally, here’s a clip from CNN’s Harry Enten pointing out that, compared to the 2013 government shutdown, voters were much more likely to say the parties should stand on their principles versus compromise to avoid a shutdown:
And now for some analysis:
On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the White House was exploring options to extend Obamacare subsidies as a way to get Democrats to come back to the bargaining table. Given the above polls and the popularity of the Affordable Care Act, it’s unlikely a continued shutdown fought on Democrats’ terms would be tenable for Trump and Republicans. This is why you have Republicans arguing that Democrats have shut down the government to give health care to unauthorized immigrants, a claim Gabe Fleisher dissects in his Substack here.
Yet as I pointed out in my shutdown preview article, the big loser in a shutdown isn’t Republicans or Democrats, it’s Americans’ faith in government in general. In the aftermath of the 2013 government shutdown, a Pew Research Center poll found ratings for both President Barack Obama and leaders in Congress falling by similar amounts. Economic anxiety and general anti-Washington sentiment rose, too.
There’s a general feeling that people in Washington don’t really want to solve voters’ problems — and who can blame them for that, given everything in the news?
Also, shutdowns are generally very stupid. There’s no reason our government needs to work like this. Before 1980, the executive branch believed that most funding for government agencies continued after appropriations bills expired, because the alternative explanation is crazy (that alternative being that the founders intended for the government to cease functions if legislators couldn’t agree on a budget). More in the footnotes to that piece.
What you missed at Strength In Numbers
Subscribers to Strength In Numbers received three articles over the last seven days:
The September Q&A post, with lots of survey data showing Trump’s declining numbers with non-voters and other groups
Coverage of a new report by Bright Line Watch showing experts are very worried about the state of American democracy, and put it on par with Israel and Mexico.
A look at how Trump’s approval rating compares to that of notable autocrats, including Viktor Orbán and Vladimir Putin:
Every day is a good day to become a paid supporter of Strength In Numbers. You get extra premium posts at least once a week (and, lately, more like 2-3x a week), an early look at any data products I’m developing, access to a private Discord server just for paid members, and more.
Paying members also support all the work that goes on behind the scenes to put together the SIN/Verasight poll, my state and congressional district MRP models, and all the other analysis that powers my journalism.
Even more numbers!
A collection of links from the last week:
WaPo: Democrats lead in Virginia’s statewide races, especially for governor1
Young Trump voters are frustrated with his performance on the economy, according to an NBC News focus group
The Pew Research Center finds 53% of adults say Trump’s policies are making the economy worse, while only 24% say he’s making conditions better. Sentiment is generally negative, with a plurality of Americans saying they think conditions will be worse next year.
Battleground-state voters, according to Navigator Research, are also very sour on Trump’s handling of the economy:
The new Times poll also finds a record high (64%) in the percentage of people who agree with the statement “America’s political system is too politically divided to solve the nation’s problems.” This is something I’m writing and thinking more about for a new project, so very timely survey.
People are increasingly down on mobile sports betting.
Independent writer Phil Bump points out that the White House’s retribution for the shutdown, which includes (probably illegally) canceling a lot of funding appropriated to state infrastructure projects by Biden’s IRA, is going to impact about 44% of Trump’s 2024 voters.
Gallup finds trust in mass media hitting a new low of 28%. The only party-by-age split in America that trusts mainstream news is Democrats over the age of 50.
And Natalie Jackson calls Trump’s second term the “zero-fucks presidency."
Share any other links that caught your eye in the comments below.
Updates from the data portal
Trump approval:
Trump issue approval:
House generic ballot average:
The charts on the data portal update every day. Feel free to use and cite them liberally!
That’s it for your major political data stories this week.
Got more for next week? Email your links or add to the comments below!
Have a nice week,
Elliott
“gubernatorial” is against the Strength In Numbers style guide
The “So Far” caveat is important…
I do not think the GOP will come out of this shutdown smelling better, though my fear is that the Dems will similarly be diminished at the outcome if it is anything less than full capitulation on ACA subsidies.
Schumer being Schumer, he’ll likely cut some deal that allows Trump to look like a great guy by simply “asking questions” because his people simply hadn’t informed him as to how much ACA cuts would affect his voter base.
Based on their comprehensive history of political malpractice, I’m confident the Dem Leadership will somehow allow the football to be yanked away at the conclusion of this fiasco. Somebody convince me otherwise.
Thanks again for your efforts. Great work.
I still don't see a favorable endgame for Democrats.
If Republicans cave and extend ACA subsidies, that is actually good for Republicans! It gets them past the midterms, and few voters will understand that Democrats fought for that outcome. Republicans will use the fix to discredit other Democratic warnings about people losing their health care (saying Democrats are always crying wolf like they did about the ACA tax credits).