"the alternative explanation is crazy (that alternative being that the founders intended for the government to cease functions if legislators couldn’t agree on a budget)."
In countries with sane governments, these shutdowns simply don't happen. The rest of the world is scratching its head and grimacing over this spectacle of bipolar disorder!
Canada has been without a budget for about ten months, with a minority government, and yet, government funding continues — with a promise of a budget "this fall".
I think this is an indictment of the two-party system, more than anything else. Currently in Canada, it would take two minority parties, working together, to bring the government down. That's much more difficult than having a narcissistic leader whip a single party to vote in lock-step.
I'd love to see some weird side stats, if they exist, like volume of postcard stamps purchased in predominantly blue vs predominantly red areas, and changes in volume of sales of anti-depressants, and suicide/overdose trends. There must be some unusual warps out in the field, if anyone is tracking them.
I still don't see a favorable endgame for Democrats.
If Republicans cave and extend ACA subsidies, that is actually good for Republicans! It gets them past the midterms, and few voters will understand that Democrats fought for that outcome. Republicans will use the fix to discredit other Democratic warnings about people losing their health care (saying Democrats are always crying wolf like they did about the ACA tax credits).
When we say "faith in government", though, what do we mean at this point? The GOP made eroding faith in liberal democracy their central project for 15+ years and have essentially succeeded in at least temporarily ending it (as your Bright Line Watch reference suggests). If people perceive this shutdown as being the product of Trumpian government, is that now what they lose faith in, particularly if this shutdown is accompanied by increasing state violence?
Also, gotta shout out NBC for predictably claiming that Democrats "have work to do to win back" Trump voters too young to have voted before 2024... as if American politics involves "winning people back" at all.
I do not think the GOP will come out of this shutdown smelling better, though my fear is that the Dems will similarly be diminished at the outcome if it is anything less than full capitulation on ACA subsidies.
Schumer being Schumer, he’ll likely cut some deal that allows Trump to look like a great guy by simply “asking questions” because his people simply hadn’t informed him as to how much ACA cuts would affect his voter base.
Based on their comprehensive history of political malpractice, I’m confident the Dem Leadership will somehow allow the football to be yanked away at the conclusion of this fiasco. Somebody convince me otherwise.
What are the crosstabs based on party ID?
30% of America thinks the Democrats are responsible for their awful fantasy football team.
"the alternative explanation is crazy (that alternative being that the founders intended for the government to cease functions if legislators couldn’t agree on a budget)."
In countries with sane governments, these shutdowns simply don't happen. The rest of the world is scratching its head and grimacing over this spectacle of bipolar disorder!
Canada has been without a budget for about ten months, with a minority government, and yet, government funding continues — with a promise of a budget "this fall".
I think this is an indictment of the two-party system, more than anything else. Currently in Canada, it would take two minority parties, working together, to bring the government down. That's much more difficult than having a narcissistic leader whip a single party to vote in lock-step.
I'd love to see some weird side stats, if they exist, like volume of postcard stamps purchased in predominantly blue vs predominantly red areas, and changes in volume of sales of anti-depressants, and suicide/overdose trends. There must be some unusual warps out in the field, if anyone is tracking them.
I still don't see a favorable endgame for Democrats.
If Republicans cave and extend ACA subsidies, that is actually good for Republicans! It gets them past the midterms, and few voters will understand that Democrats fought for that outcome. Republicans will use the fix to discredit other Democratic warnings about people losing their health care (saying Democrats are always crying wolf like they did about the ACA tax credits).
When we say "faith in government", though, what do we mean at this point? The GOP made eroding faith in liberal democracy their central project for 15+ years and have essentially succeeded in at least temporarily ending it (as your Bright Line Watch reference suggests). If people perceive this shutdown as being the product of Trumpian government, is that now what they lose faith in, particularly if this shutdown is accompanied by increasing state violence?
Also, gotta shout out NBC for predictably claiming that Democrats "have work to do to win back" Trump voters too young to have voted before 2024... as if American politics involves "winning people back" at all.
The “So Far” caveat is important…
I do not think the GOP will come out of this shutdown smelling better, though my fear is that the Dems will similarly be diminished at the outcome if it is anything less than full capitulation on ACA subsidies.
Schumer being Schumer, he’ll likely cut some deal that allows Trump to look like a great guy by simply “asking questions” because his people simply hadn’t informed him as to how much ACA cuts would affect his voter base.
Based on their comprehensive history of political malpractice, I’m confident the Dem Leadership will somehow allow the football to be yanked away at the conclusion of this fiasco. Somebody convince me otherwise.
Thanks again for your efforts. Great work.