Tangential to Elliott's posting today, but hopefully of interest. I noted earlier this week the big turnout advantage Ds had in the NJ governor's primary. I wrote up why that's strong evidence they are clear and strong favorites to win in November.
I Included citations to some of Elliott's work earlier this year on turnout dynamics in specials and off-year elections.
I heard that even Rasmussen had Trump barely above water on approval, 53-47. And that was before Israel and Iran started up. MAGA is not happy about their PEACE president getting us into a war in the Middle East.
Because Epstein-bestie criminal Trump ripped up Obama's nuclear deal, Iran and Israel are now at war, ignoring Trump's wishes. WW3 is here because of Trump's weakness and incompetence -- including an unqualified, alcoholic Sec. of Defense.
Trump promised to lower prices and end wars on day one. Instead prices are up due to trade wars, Putin ignores Trump to bomb Ukraine, mass starvation in Gaza, and chaos at home and abroad.
Instead of fixing these threats, corrupt fascist Trump released the Jan 6 terrorists and sent the military to attack US citizens. While useless Republicans kick 14 million Americans off healthcare with their Big Ugly Bill's $4 trillion yearly deficits.
Elliott - what do you think of this 1-day poll that CNN did that suggests a closer approve-disapprove division with the public reaction? I note that their own folks have said that one day polls can have limitations vs the multi-day standard. I wondered if that was an escape hatch for the variance in their results? As you've noted, there seems to be an issue with pundits updating their priors to reflect the public's unhappiness with Trump's actions. I wondered if it was more comfortable for them to go with a closer split.
Tangential to Elliott's posting today, but hopefully of interest. I noted earlier this week the big turnout advantage Ds had in the NJ governor's primary. I wrote up why that's strong evidence they are clear and strong favorites to win in November.
I Included citations to some of Elliott's work earlier this year on turnout dynamics in specials and off-year elections.
https://medium.com/3streams/democrats-voted-in-new-jersey-this-week-theyll-vote-again-in-november-772cdd1babd0
Just caan't get enough of your COTW! LOVE Friday morning inbox from 'Strength In Numbers' and G. Elliott Morris!
I heard that even Rasmussen had Trump barely above water on approval, 53-47. And that was before Israel and Iran started up. MAGA is not happy about their PEACE president getting us into a war in the Middle East.
Because Epstein-bestie criminal Trump ripped up Obama's nuclear deal, Iran and Israel are now at war, ignoring Trump's wishes. WW3 is here because of Trump's weakness and incompetence -- including an unqualified, alcoholic Sec. of Defense.
Trump promised to lower prices and end wars on day one. Instead prices are up due to trade wars, Putin ignores Trump to bomb Ukraine, mass starvation in Gaza, and chaos at home and abroad.
Instead of fixing these threats, corrupt fascist Trump released the Jan 6 terrorists and sent the military to attack US citizens. While useless Republicans kick 14 million Americans off healthcare with their Big Ugly Bill's $4 trillion yearly deficits.
Had enough yet?
Elliott - what do you think of this 1-day poll that CNN did that suggests a closer approve-disapprove division with the public reaction? I note that their own folks have said that one day polls can have limitations vs the multi-day standard. I wondered if that was an escape hatch for the variance in their results? As you've noted, there seems to be an issue with pundits updating their priors to reflect the public's unhappiness with Trump's actions. I wondered if it was more comfortable for them to go with a closer split.
Had not seen that one. Can you provide a link? Having trouble on Google.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/interactive/2025/protests-ice-los-angeles-trump-deployment-poll/
Elliot - ok, my aging memory got the pollster wrong. The CNN story referenced it. The story I saw is here: https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/13/politics/immigration-actions-poll-protests-los-angeles-trump
Here's the 2nd place I saw mention of it on CNN: https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/la-protests-ice-raids-trump-06-11-25#cmbsrf0nr00003b6mcyu1y4js
Thank you, Greg!
Thanks for posting. This article is very helpful!