I'm not convinced that having unpopular policies matters at all. Look at gun policy, marijuana policy, health care policy, immigration policy, economic policy, taxation policy. The Republicans at the state and national level are under water on all these, yet they have been elected over and over for decades.
What about the 8 million Venezuelans who fled Maduro and are currently destabilizing parts of South and Central America? (Courtesy of gangs who followed to exploit them.)
No, I have no expectation Trump and his cronies have given them the least thought. But one imagines this is still an opportunity for return of people who matter for the chance of a better Venezuela.
When are Republican politicians going to figure out that Trump and his actions are losers for most Republican politicians. How many troops will he try to send into Venezuela before either he is impeached and convicted or something worse happens? Is there really anyone in the United States who wants any form of another Iraq or Afghanistan invasion? If things aren't immediately made better, does anyone really believe ordinary Venezuelans are going to do nothing? Does anyone really believe Venezuelans are going to just passively stand around and accept US oil companies back into the country without a large number of US troops to protect these companies? Does anyone really think the drug gangs will do nothing to protect their operations in Venezuela even if it means killing Americans, whether oil workers, diplomats or troops?
The president spoke at length about securing American industry access to Venezuela’s oil fields, which account for roughly 17 percent of the world’s known reserves. A sustained U.S. military presence will be required, he indicated, for the foreseeable future. How many troops will be needed and for how long is anyone’s guess. https://www.nytimes.com/.../trump-venezuela-congress-war...
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had spoken by phone with Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, and reaffirmed their “mutual commitment to bolster up comprehensive [sic] strategic partnership between Russia and Venezuela.” Russia also called the Maduro kidnapping “an unacceptable violation of the sovereignty of an independent state, the respect for which is a fundamental principle of international law.” Pot, meet Kettle.
I fear the probabilities for the planet, the Venezuelans, and for the United States.
Could you also add the AtlasIntel polls on how Venezuelans themselves feel about it? Prior polling showed a big divide between diaspora and those still living there, the former supportive of the US intervening.
There seems to be a big concocted campaign on Reddit to convince military action in Venezuela is more popular among Americans and Venezuelans than it actually is.
Oil companies aren't too inclined to invest in unstable countries. Trump's wish to take the oil, is more like his claims for all the benefits from his tariffs. But here was an opportunity, in his mind, for him to look like a strongman, even if the result looks closer to the actions of a rabid skunk.
No war will be required. Trump & Co. are engaged in mafia-style regime capture, not change. That’s why they threw the democratic opposition under a bus.
Enhancing and profiting from a pre- existing kleptocracy, US oil companies will be invited in to boost currently pathetic output; the regime will protect and coddle them tax-wise. US firms will extract a large share of the profit, but regime insiders will also grow richer, even if ordinary people grow poorer.
Likely VZ will be instructed to cut off oil supplies to Cuba. So its economy collapses? Not VZ’s problem. And, VZ will limit dealing with China. You’re in OUR sphere of influence, not theirs.
Don’t like this deal? Nice military you’ve got there. Shame if something happened to it.
In Trump's telling the kidnapping did not result in any US deaths, so 36% were ok with it. As you point out, this was the easy part. But if Delcy resists Trump, will US troops have to fight the Venezuelan military with bombs?
Slightly off topic, but are there any actual records of the number of registered Republicans nationwide vs registered Democrats?
I know we have a large chunk of "independents" (which should actually be categorized as "unaffiliated") and that they "lean" Republican or Democrat.
I think it would be helpful to know what the actual proportions are. It would give party leaders a chance to initiate voter registration drives and market their party brands to the public.
It is my own suspicion that if it came down to judging actual policies and actions taken by the two major parties, more Americans would lean Democrat than Republican.
As it should be, if we could perfect our messaging.
Senator Mike Lee of Utah made perfunctory comments about war powers act, then went all in to support the attack without Congressional approval. I can't say I'm surprised. Other Republicans who see Trump as their means of holding power will likely cave in the same way. They appear to be in some kind of bubble that does not realize from the polling how unpopular these actions are. We have not forgotten Iraq and the lies about nuclear weapons.
Thank you for the quick and important compilation of American opinion on Venezuela. Not often that the polling data is "breaking news" but today it is!
It this is even remotely true then the American people are awakening from their 11 years of insanity. But my gut - and I’m a quant also so I know that’s not a good argument - says this is wildly optimistic. Sure, in any kind of long run, this thuggish act won’t go well. But if’5is gets him a six month bump that’s all hen needs to take over
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It is worth remembering that we have another tool besides protests and voting.
It is quickly becoming clear which gas and oil companies support this criminal action.
Boycott them if you can!
I'm not convinced that having unpopular policies matters at all. Look at gun policy, marijuana policy, health care policy, immigration policy, economic policy, taxation policy. The Republicans at the state and national level are under water on all these, yet they have been elected over and over for decades.
What about the 8 million Venezuelans who fled Maduro and are currently destabilizing parts of South and Central America? (Courtesy of gangs who followed to exploit them.)
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/13/world/americas/chile-election-latin-america-crime.html?searchResultPosition=1
No, I have no expectation Trump and his cronies have given them the least thought. But one imagines this is still an opportunity for return of people who matter for the chance of a better Venezuela.
When are Republican politicians going to figure out that Trump and his actions are losers for most Republican politicians. How many troops will he try to send into Venezuela before either he is impeached and convicted or something worse happens? Is there really anyone in the United States who wants any form of another Iraq or Afghanistan invasion? If things aren't immediately made better, does anyone really believe ordinary Venezuelans are going to do nothing? Does anyone really believe Venezuelans are going to just passively stand around and accept US oil companies back into the country without a large number of US troops to protect these companies? Does anyone really think the drug gangs will do nothing to protect their operations in Venezuela even if it means killing Americans, whether oil workers, diplomats or troops?
The president spoke at length about securing American industry access to Venezuela’s oil fields, which account for roughly 17 percent of the world’s known reserves. A sustained U.S. military presence will be required, he indicated, for the foreseeable future. How many troops will be needed and for how long is anyone’s guess. https://www.nytimes.com/.../trump-venezuela-congress-war...
Any further questions?
The Trump administration probably consulted with Chevron CEO Mike Wirth about Venezuelan crude, because Wirth stated that Chevron has been operating continuously in Venezuela and that Venezuela has more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-12-10/chevron-ceo-on-oil-price-demand-venezuela-ai-power-video at 9:46; and
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had spoken by phone with Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, and reaffirmed their “mutual commitment to bolster up comprehensive [sic] strategic partnership between Russia and Venezuela.” Russia also called the Maduro kidnapping “an unacceptable violation of the sovereignty of an independent state, the respect for which is a fundamental principle of international law.” Pot, meet Kettle.
I fear the probabilities for the planet, the Venezuelans, and for the United States.
Could you also add the AtlasIntel polls on how Venezuelans themselves feel about it? Prior polling showed a big divide between diaspora and those still living there, the former supportive of the US intervening.
There seems to be a big concocted campaign on Reddit to convince military action in Venezuela is more popular among Americans and Venezuelans than it actually is.
Oil companies aren't too inclined to invest in unstable countries. Trump's wish to take the oil, is more like his claims for all the benefits from his tariffs. But here was an opportunity, in his mind, for him to look like a strongman, even if the result looks closer to the actions of a rabid skunk.
No war will be required. Trump & Co. are engaged in mafia-style regime capture, not change. That’s why they threw the democratic opposition under a bus.
Enhancing and profiting from a pre- existing kleptocracy, US oil companies will be invited in to boost currently pathetic output; the regime will protect and coddle them tax-wise. US firms will extract a large share of the profit, but regime insiders will also grow richer, even if ordinary people grow poorer.
Likely VZ will be instructed to cut off oil supplies to Cuba. So its economy collapses? Not VZ’s problem. And, VZ will limit dealing with China. You’re in OUR sphere of influence, not theirs.
Don’t like this deal? Nice military you’ve got there. Shame if something happened to it.
Trump has successfully created a distraction from his existing problems.
As long as no Americans are killed in Venezuela, I do not expect Trump to suffer politically.
But if Americans are killed in Venezuela--whether soldiers or citizens living in Venezuela--then it might become a different story.
That's why hypothetical polls prior to yesterday are probably irrelevant.
You missed one: this poll from YouGov about the Jan 3 operation finds 36% support, 39% oppose. https://x.com/yougovamerica/status/2007524876882436337?s=46
Thanks. Must have come out while I was writing. Goes to my point in section 4.
In Trump's telling the kidnapping did not result in any US deaths, so 36% were ok with it. As you point out, this was the easy part. But if Delcy resists Trump, will US troops have to fight the Venezuelan military with bombs?
Slightly off topic, but are there any actual records of the number of registered Republicans nationwide vs registered Democrats?
I know we have a large chunk of "independents" (which should actually be categorized as "unaffiliated") and that they "lean" Republican or Democrat.
I think it would be helpful to know what the actual proportions are. It would give party leaders a chance to initiate voter registration drives and market their party brands to the public.
It is my own suspicion that if it came down to judging actual policies and actions taken by the two major parties, more Americans would lean Democrat than Republican.
As it should be, if we could perfect our messaging.
Unfortunately I expect these numbers to change now that we are perceived to have kicked ass and gotten out with ease.
Senator Mike Lee of Utah made perfunctory comments about war powers act, then went all in to support the attack without Congressional approval. I can't say I'm surprised. Other Republicans who see Trump as their means of holding power will likely cave in the same way. They appear to be in some kind of bubble that does not realize from the polling how unpopular these actions are. We have not forgotten Iraq and the lies about nuclear weapons.
Thank you for the quick and important compilation of American opinion on Venezuela. Not often that the polling data is "breaking news" but today it is!
It this is even remotely true then the American people are awakening from their 11 years of insanity. But my gut - and I’m a quant also so I know that’s not a good argument - says this is wildly optimistic. Sure, in any kind of long run, this thuggish act won’t go well. But if’5is gets him a six month bump that’s all hen needs to take over
U.S. citizens living, serving, or studying abroad—you can vote from wherever you are! 🌍 Visit https://votefromabroad.org to register and request your overseas ballot.
It’s quick, free, and valid for all elections in 2026. Need help? Write to help@votefromabroad.org.
Vote from Abroad volunteers are ready to assist you with any questions about requesting or returning your ballot. Don’t wait! Request your ballot today and make your voice heard! 🗳️