Thank you for evidence based and data-driven coverage. There's a lot of vibes in our political news and discourse and op-eds. Vibes with no data is like cheese but no grits.
In II, SIN states that in '24 "...a lot of Ds stayed home". QUESTION #1: Is there ## or statistical support for this conclusion? I am not aware of such, but SIN may be. QUESTION #2: If yes to #1, any ## or statistical 'explanation' as to "why"? My own explanation continues to be racism and misogyny, but without statistical backup.
Re: Q1, you can see a lot of precinct drop off in total votes cast in very blue areas from 2020-2024. On Q2, anecdotally I think a high share of left-leaning Dems were upset about prices, Gaza, and the lack of voice in nominating Harris (see here: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/11/us/politics/democrats-trump-harris-turnout.html). But I don’t have the data to reject your hypothesis either
In addition to racism and misogyny, I'd add "lack of results over time." A popular slogan in my younger days was "If voting could change anything, it would be illegal." I've long compared voting to attending religious services: if you don't have faith, you don't bother. Thanks to the Reagan administration, the huge changes in the media landscape, and of course the Citizens United decision (2010) and all the Republican efforts to make it harder to vote, it takes serious motivation -- and faith -- to vote regularly.
Agree with most of your para., esp. the observation that ' serious motivation' and 'faith' are necessary to continue voting regularly. Although, I do think voters have experienced, collectively, 'results over time' [eg ACA] -- but not close to 'adequate'.
Minor quibble with the party ID graph which ends with Q4 2025. Would rather see this run to Q1 or Q2 2026 showing what happened in previous presidential terms as context for what we might see when those data points are revealed for Trump V2 over the next six months. As always, keep up the good work.
This is a good suggestion! If I had the raw quarterly data for the whole time series, I would try that, but alas I only had these inauguration-year breakdowns because Gallup specifically wrote about them a few months ago.
Sad but apparently true. IIRC Richard Nixon was at around a 30%-35% approval rating when he was forced out of office in 1974 so there is apparently a large cohort of Republicans who will support a President of their party no matter what happens.
How can you say that Trump’s 6-point drop in party ID during 2025 “matches Biden’s 6-point drop” from 2020 to Q4 2021, when Biden appears to have had, in your chart, a 10-point drop during 2021?
Excellent piece. I have you in my preferred blogs right there with Heather Cox Richardson and Paul Krugman and I cannot think of a higher honor from me. I have a question regarding: "Second, a lot of Democrats stayed home." 2024 was the second largest turnout (in post Voting Rights Act, before that doesn't really count, LOL) history. The highest was 2020 when mail in voting dominated--most people "stayed home" in 2020 and voted from there. While Republicans in key states curtailed vote by mail in 2024, which naturally limited turnout, though I have no idea how much. To me, the "a lot of Democrats stayed home" seems like the stock Democrat self flagellation and internal finger pointing ("If only you did what I said you would have won!" pouty face emoji) that happens whenever they lose that isn't backed up by the numbers. Clearly, Dems needed to show up more, no matter the reasons that people didn't vote, that's moot. The question I have is: In the second highest turnout election in American history why is the "Democrats stayed home" narrative supported by the numbers?
My first point in the case of Renee Good. Her rights as a human person were violated as articulated in our Declaration of Independence.
"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."
My second point. The illegal killing of Renee Good by police agents of our federal government requires that We the People alter that government.
-"That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness."
We the People must organize to peacefully create the changes necessary to "effect their Safety and Happiness.
Thank you for evidence based and data-driven coverage. There's a lot of vibes in our political news and discourse and op-eds. Vibes with no data is like cheese but no grits.
In II, SIN states that in '24 "...a lot of Ds stayed home". QUESTION #1: Is there ## or statistical support for this conclusion? I am not aware of such, but SIN may be. QUESTION #2: If yes to #1, any ## or statistical 'explanation' as to "why"? My own explanation continues to be racism and misogyny, but without statistical backup.
Re: Q1, you can see a lot of precinct drop off in total votes cast in very blue areas from 2020-2024. On Q2, anecdotally I think a high share of left-leaning Dems were upset about prices, Gaza, and the lack of voice in nominating Harris (see here: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/11/us/politics/democrats-trump-harris-turnout.html). But I don’t have the data to reject your hypothesis either
In addition to racism and misogyny, I'd add "lack of results over time." A popular slogan in my younger days was "If voting could change anything, it would be illegal." I've long compared voting to attending religious services: if you don't have faith, you don't bother. Thanks to the Reagan administration, the huge changes in the media landscape, and of course the Citizens United decision (2010) and all the Republican efforts to make it harder to vote, it takes serious motivation -- and faith -- to vote regularly.
Agree with most of your para., esp. the observation that ' serious motivation' and 'faith' are necessary to continue voting regularly. Although, I do think voters have experienced, collectively, 'results over time' [eg ACA] -- but not close to 'adequate'.
Minor quibble with the party ID graph which ends with Q4 2025. Would rather see this run to Q1 or Q2 2026 showing what happened in previous presidential terms as context for what we might see when those data points are revealed for Trump V2 over the next six months. As always, keep up the good work.
This is a good suggestion! If I had the raw quarterly data for the whole time series, I would try that, but alas I only had these inauguration-year breakdowns because Gallup specifically wrote about them a few months ago.
A more apt headline might be "Trump has a pretty remarkable floor despite increased awfulness".
Sad but apparently true. IIRC Richard Nixon was at around a 30%-35% approval rating when he was forced out of office in 1974 so there is apparently a large cohort of Republicans who will support a President of their party no matter what happens.
How can you say that Trump’s 6-point drop in party ID during 2025 “matches Biden’s 6-point drop” from 2020 to Q4 2021, when Biden appears to have had, in your chart, a 10-point drop during 2021?
I think the colors might be hard to read. That’s my fault if so. Biden’s drop is 6 points from 2020 to Q4 2021: https://news.gallup.com/poll/692978/democrats-regain-advantage-party-affiliation.aspx
Excellent piece. I have you in my preferred blogs right there with Heather Cox Richardson and Paul Krugman and I cannot think of a higher honor from me. I have a question regarding: "Second, a lot of Democrats stayed home." 2024 was the second largest turnout (in post Voting Rights Act, before that doesn't really count, LOL) history. The highest was 2020 when mail in voting dominated--most people "stayed home" in 2020 and voted from there. While Republicans in key states curtailed vote by mail in 2024, which naturally limited turnout, though I have no idea how much. To me, the "a lot of Democrats stayed home" seems like the stock Democrat self flagellation and internal finger pointing ("If only you did what I said you would have won!" pouty face emoji) that happens whenever they lose that isn't backed up by the numbers. Clearly, Dems needed to show up more, no matter the reasons that people didn't vote, that's moot. The question I have is: In the second highest turnout election in American history why is the "Democrats stayed home" narrative supported by the numbers?
"If only we had an enemy bigger than our apathy, we would have won." - Mumford and Sons
Are the ## even there? -- as I posted.
My first point in the case of Renee Good. Her rights as a human person were violated as articulated in our Declaration of Independence.
"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."
My second point. The illegal killing of Renee Good by police agents of our federal government requires that We the People alter that government.
-"That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness."
We the People must organize to peacefully create the changes necessary to "effect their Safety and Happiness.