Great piece. One observation: In 2022, PA-SD-36 was uncontested. The GOP incumbent got 92K votes. Interestingly, when it was last contested in 2018 (under slightly different lines), total turnout was not a *lot* higher—105K.
50K is low in comparison of course but seems high to me for a special!
Great piece. One observation: In 2022, PA-SD-36 was uncontested. The GOP incumbent got 92K votes. Interestingly, when it was last contested in 2018 (under slightly different lines), total turnout was not a *lot* higher—105K.
50K is low in comparison of course but seems high to me for a special!
Thanks! Any idea what the raw 2024 Pres turnout was in SD-36? We can back into a turnout estimate for 2025 using that (assuming the SD turnout was same as PA, at 77%, which is crude but the best we have).
Great piece. One observation: In 2022, PA-SD-36 was uncontested. The GOP incumbent got 92K votes. Interestingly, when it was last contested in 2018 (under slightly different lines), total turnout was not a *lot* higher—105K.
50K is low in comparison of course but seems high to me for a special!
Thanks! Any idea what the raw 2024 Pres turnout was in SD-36? We can back into a turnout estimate for 2025 using that (assuming the SD turnout was same as PA, at 77%, which is crude but the best we have).
Yes, we have those figures... somewhere on Jeff Singer's hard drive. 😁 He's on vacation right now, but will share when he's back.