Recent polls have shown a big shift toward the Democrats in the House generic ballot. If historical patterns of out-party gains continue in 2026, Democrats could see a larger "blue wave" than in 2018.
Is there any way to find out what share of the public has noticed the graft and corruption of this administration? Ditto competence/incompetence of cabinet?
VERY IMPORTANT TO EVALUATE THE DRAMATIC SHIFTS IN VARIOUS STATES: IN VIRGINIA, DEMS SHIFTED 13 STATE LEGISLATIVE SEATS--THAT HASN'T HAPPENED IN 50 YEARS! I SERVED THEN IN THE VIRGINIA HOUSE OF DELEGATES AND HAVE BEEN WATCHING WHAT GOES ON THERE EVER SINCE--BELIEVE ME, FOLKS, THIS SHIFT HASN'T HAPPENED BEFORE IN AREAS WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSERVATIVE FOR DECADES! I'M SURE ELLIOTT CAN POINT OUT SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SHIFTS ELSEWHERE? YES, FIRED FED EMPLOYEES DO LIVE THERE, BUT NOT TO THAT DEGREE IN SO MANY STATE LEGISLATIVE DISTRICTS, AND GOVERNED BY A REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR? LET'S SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN TN-07 ON DEC 2; SHE IS VERY LIBERAL SO I DON'T REALLY EXPECT TO SEE HER WIN OUTRIGHT BECAUSE THIS IS A PLUS-10R CD, BUT EVEN IF SHE NARROWLY LOSES THAT REALLY SAYS SOMETHING FOR THE MIDTERMS?
Curious if there's a good way to tease out how much of the recent uptick (since the election in particular) is attributable to change in opinion vs moving response bias: Lots has happened in a few weeks, clearly: waves of layoffs, the government reopening, etc. But also, Dems had a good election, which might increase D-aligned respondents' motivation to respond to pollsters, and/or decrease same for R-aligned respondents.
Pollsters each have their own methodologies for trying to adjust for the partisan makeup of their sample, but as a modeler looking at an aggregate of results (that pollsters have already attempted to adjust for some of these things), how would you approach this question, given that it's something that would likely systematically affect all polls and so isn't well accounted for by just smoothing out sampling error via averaging?
It seems like Dems should be further ahead given Trump's unpopularity. At this point in 2009, with Obama's net approval at around +7, the generic ballot was around D+1. Today, with Trump at around -17, the generic ballot is at D+4. Not sure what to make of this.
I wonder how much of this is *because* of the election results - the GOP share of the average has been steady over this period, and as you noted the movement is all for the Democrats. After a year of hammering by the media and social media on what losers they are, Democrats won resoundingly, and that might have pulled some quiet supporters out of low-morale "ambivalence".
It's possible the election results were a better barometer on where things stood then the polls were beforehand (Sherrill, Spanberger, etc. outperformed their polls, after all), or it's possible that this has had a compounding effect - the results reflected an environment better than the polls suggested but also caused further improvement in the subsequent month (which in turn has fortified Democrats to make power moves and show more backbone, which further improves their numbers, and...)
Will be interesting. Some unfortunate comments have been reported, from the Dem challenger, I hope these do not prevent an upset. The general outlook is favourable to the Dems right now, but it's a long way out. They need to keep setting out their own agenda on affordability and other key issues. If they make a positive case, more than just 'anti Trump' then perhaps Democratic enthusiasm and determination to vote will help.
Is there any way to find out what share of the public has noticed the graft and corruption of this administration? Ditto competence/incompetence of cabinet?
VERY IMPORTANT TO EVALUATE THE DRAMATIC SHIFTS IN VARIOUS STATES: IN VIRGINIA, DEMS SHIFTED 13 STATE LEGISLATIVE SEATS--THAT HASN'T HAPPENED IN 50 YEARS! I SERVED THEN IN THE VIRGINIA HOUSE OF DELEGATES AND HAVE BEEN WATCHING WHAT GOES ON THERE EVER SINCE--BELIEVE ME, FOLKS, THIS SHIFT HASN'T HAPPENED BEFORE IN AREAS WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSERVATIVE FOR DECADES! I'M SURE ELLIOTT CAN POINT OUT SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SHIFTS ELSEWHERE? YES, FIRED FED EMPLOYEES DO LIVE THERE, BUT NOT TO THAT DEGREE IN SO MANY STATE LEGISLATIVE DISTRICTS, AND GOVERNED BY A REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR? LET'S SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN TN-07 ON DEC 2; SHE IS VERY LIBERAL SO I DON'T REALLY EXPECT TO SEE HER WIN OUTRIGHT BECAUSE THIS IS A PLUS-10R CD, BUT EVEN IF SHE NARROWLY LOSES THAT REALLY SAYS SOMETHING FOR THE MIDTERMS?
Curious if there's a good way to tease out how much of the recent uptick (since the election in particular) is attributable to change in opinion vs moving response bias: Lots has happened in a few weeks, clearly: waves of layoffs, the government reopening, etc. But also, Dems had a good election, which might increase D-aligned respondents' motivation to respond to pollsters, and/or decrease same for R-aligned respondents.
Pollsters each have their own methodologies for trying to adjust for the partisan makeup of their sample, but as a modeler looking at an aggregate of results (that pollsters have already attempted to adjust for some of these things), how would you approach this question, given that it's something that would likely systematically affect all polls and so isn't well accounted for by just smoothing out sampling error via averaging?
It seems like Dems should be further ahead given Trump's unpopularity. At this point in 2009, with Obama's net approval at around +7, the generic ballot was around D+1. Today, with Trump at around -17, the generic ballot is at D+4. Not sure what to make of this.
I wonder how much of this is *because* of the election results - the GOP share of the average has been steady over this period, and as you noted the movement is all for the Democrats. After a year of hammering by the media and social media on what losers they are, Democrats won resoundingly, and that might have pulled some quiet supporters out of low-morale "ambivalence".
It's possible the election results were a better barometer on where things stood then the polls were beforehand (Sherrill, Spanberger, etc. outperformed their polls, after all), or it's possible that this has had a compounding effect - the results reflected an environment better than the polls suggested but also caused further improvement in the subsequent month (which in turn has fortified Democrats to make power moves and show more backbone, which further improves their numbers, and...)
Too fucking late.
We don't have to wait until next November - the special election in TN-07 on December 2 could be a shocker in a Trump +20 district.
Will be interesting. Some unfortunate comments have been reported, from the Dem challenger, I hope these do not prevent an upset. The general outlook is favourable to the Dems right now, but it's a long way out. They need to keep setting out their own agenda on affordability and other key issues. If they make a positive case, more than just 'anti Trump' then perhaps Democratic enthusiasm and determination to vote will help.
I'm not surprised that the smear campaign has begun. It usually ratchets up in the final weeks as Republicans get desperate.
Curious if you are able to localize patterns and see if the shift holds true with the same trajectory for Republican run states?
This is a great idea! Should be able to. E