Democrats expand lead in U.S. House polls this week

Recent polls have shown a big shift toward the Democrats in the House generic ballot. If historical patterns of out-party gains continue in 2026, Democrats could see a larger "blue wave" than in 2018.

After this November’s off-year elections, I argued that the Democrats’ sweep from Georgia to New Jersey wasn’t the result just of Democratic-leaning turnout, but the product of real swings to the left among key voting groups. Two such groups were Latinos and voters who care most about the economy — the latter of which went from backing Trump by over 60 points in 2024 to backing Democratic candidates for governor by roughly 30 points in 2025. Latino-heavy precincts in New Jersey moved left by 50 points.

This week, polls confirmed the Democrats’ rosy position with voters, and even showed a sizable shift toward the party compared to previous data. In one notable survey from Marist College, sponsored by NPR/PBS News, Democrats held a 14-point lead over Republicans in the U.S. House “generic ballot” test (the “generic ballot” is a poll question that asks voters who they would vote for in their local congressional district if the 2026 elections were held today). NPR ran with the headline “De…