With the Democratic Party underwater in voter polls @ 37-63 disapproval, I'm shocked that even +2% D in a generic Congressional poll can be manifested. Given the drive by GOP to strengthen voter suppression for the mid-terms, plus the TX situation, surely one needs to see at least +5% on the generics polling to posit for a Dem House majority. IOW, a massive Blue-Wave election, full stop.
It does seem weird, but Dems are much more likely to criticize their own party for not fighting hard enough against the fascist takeover, so that accounts for majority disapproval. That doesn’t mean they would vote for the party that is perpetrating the fascist takeover. They would still vote Dem bc there aren’t any other options. Not voting is even scarier.
Ah, but another view suggests the GB "top line" is held down by the shite image the voting public hold regarding the Dem PARTY, and NOT toward individual Dem officeholders not named Schumer or Jeffries, nor toward Dem candidates that will be challenging GOPers in the midterms.
Very interesting new poll of people's views on economic issues (Morning Consult for Century Foundation). 50% blame Republicans in Congress for making life harder; 41% blame Democrats. There may be more impact seen in the House polls soon.
On the Texas proposed redistricting, 3 of the new seats are PVI R+3 or R+4, and not at all safe Republican seats. In 2018, Texas Dems gained 2 seats in the US House, from districts with a PVI R+5 and R+7. Of course, the possible dummymandering doesn't make the effort to rig elections any less dangerous or reprehensible.
A thing that stands out to me is that in the years shown, the outparty has always overperformed their polls. Do we have any idea why this may be?
Doesn't seem a huge lead, given the mess the GOP are causing
With the Democratic Party underwater in voter polls @ 37-63 disapproval, I'm shocked that even +2% D in a generic Congressional poll can be manifested. Given the drive by GOP to strengthen voter suppression for the mid-terms, plus the TX situation, surely one needs to see at least +5% on the generics polling to posit for a Dem House majority. IOW, a massive Blue-Wave election, full stop.
It does seem weird, but Dems are much more likely to criticize their own party for not fighting hard enough against the fascist takeover, so that accounts for majority disapproval. That doesn’t mean they would vote for the party that is perpetrating the fascist takeover. They would still vote Dem bc there aren’t any other options. Not voting is even scarier.
That's a bad poll paid for by Rupert Murdoch.
Even in the WSJ itself, Dems are winning the GB by 3. It is quite remarkable that the low favorability rating isn't translating into a weak topline.
Ah, but another view suggests the GB "top line" is held down by the shite image the voting public hold regarding the Dem PARTY, and NOT toward individual Dem officeholders not named Schumer or Jeffries, nor toward Dem candidates that will be challenging GOPers in the midterms.
I think that’s probably right
Very interesting new poll of people's views on economic issues (Morning Consult for Century Foundation). 50% blame Republicans in Congress for making life harder; 41% blame Democrats. There may be more impact seen in the House polls soon.
On the Texas proposed redistricting, 3 of the new seats are PVI R+3 or R+4, and not at all safe Republican seats. In 2018, Texas Dems gained 2 seats in the US House, from districts with a PVI R+5 and R+7. Of course, the possible dummymandering doesn't make the effort to rig elections any less dangerous or reprehensible.
Would love to see where you're getting those numbers. I think Dave's Redistricting disagrees? https://davesredistricting.org/maps#stats::5d79f054-6135-47b7-9072-2b808b8db593
According to their numbers. Dems would need to shift by 15-20 points to get back to their current 13 seats in TX
The PVI numbers for the new Texas seats are from Ed Kilgore, NYMag, citing Punchbowl News, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/gops-texas-gerrymandering-plan-depends-on-iffy-latino-gains.html
The 2018 PVI's are from Wikipedia, Districts 7 and 32.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Texas
Morning Consult Poll - https://tcf.org/content/report/the-hidden-costs-of-trumps-economy-skipped-meals-rising-debt-and-the-impossible-choices-facing-american-families/
Thanks for the link to Dave's Redistricting. Will take a look after the plants get watered this morning.
The Punchbowl News PVI estimates were for what they expected the map to be, so maybe not accurate for what the map is.