As a scientist, I love the "Christmas tree" graphs - like the one for "Trump underwater on all issues except border security." These are a highly efficient means of data display. However, I have received brutal feedback when I have shared such graphs with other scientists. Folks who are red-green color blind can't distinguish the colors, and placing the Disapprove-Approve labels directly over the data implies at first glace that the corresponding data are under the label. In the example I referenced, data for Approve would appear to be on the right. The research and analysis are outstanding, and so I hope that type of graph can be tweaked to help all readers more easily interpret the product. With respect and gratitude for your work!
Hi doc! That’s weird, I think something is up with substack’s in-page links. You can also go to this page and scroll down! https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
Having designed survey research and taught general research methods, I I'm grateful that you value methodological transparency and longitudinal consistency in questions. I also enjoy the meta-question on use of the survey. Also, I support the idea of questions unpacking how respondents define "border security."
Suggestion for a future poll -- find out how many people can provide the party of their Representative, Senators, and Governor, and how many can actually name those in office.
We need to stop kidding ourselves. America is no longer a two party democracy. It has become a Monarchy with one opposition party. It's the Kingdom of Trump vs the Democratic Party. From now until 2028 we need to keep fighting for our freedoms, equal rights and human decency against the forces of a fascist monarchy. We were here in 1776 and in 1860. Hopefully we won't need a shooting war to undo the Monarchy. Hopefully, public humiliation will shame America back to its senses.
Trump is a mighty powerful sorcerer for sure, which is to say the head of the MAGA snake will hopefully be irreplaceable and the fire will go out when he's gone.
I wonder what metrics or measures the people surveyed use to decide if things are better or worse. Grocery prices or consumer prices more broadly? Employment numbers or their own sense of job security? Their monthly budget or stock exchange fluctuations? Their social media friends or Fox?
Given that people don't vote on conclusions, but on feelings, why do they feel the way they do?
The blue state governors must convene a Conference of Governors in Illinois immediately and set up the firewall to pour sand in the gears of a rogue, fascist and racist federal government that looms over our Democracy.
Hi Elliott! Hope you are well---- I gave up and moved to France---but I still keep my fingers crossed that your numbers are on the mark--- Listen, maybe I missed something, but did you ever break down them demos on this 33%? Who the HELL are these people? What pharmaceuticals do they have access to that the rest of us have missed out on? ( "Right vs. wrong track: 33% say the U.S. is on the right track; 57% say wrong track.)
Understanding that it's too early for a model, I'm curious what the likely party vote share is to determine control of the House in the midterms. I.e. assuming 8% generic ballot advantage holds, is that enough for Democrats to win a majority of seats next year?
I think this is somewhat in flux, given the redistricting fights. However, I think if the 8% persists, it's more than enough for a House majority. (For reference, 2018 was something like D+9).
I was a little surprised Trump did as well as he did on the personal finance question. I know a plurality were generally negative, however, almost every metric you could pick to gauge the economy is materially worse than when Trump took office so I thought his numbers might be a bit worse since this hits home for everyone. I am little worried that people are paying more attention to vibes that come from the administration about the great economy and not the actual facts and their lived experience.
Did your poll break down the gerrymandering question(s) by state?
It would be interesting to see how aware people are of the process in their state and particularly whether they have an independent commission already. And to see how much residents in states with maps overturned by the judiciary are affected by the political fighting over this.
Thank you! The fact that numbers showed people still favoring process over result was a relief. We get so bogged down with all of the partisan posts online that it can seem like that people truly are hopelessly partisan, and they aren’t. I truly appreciate your work, G. Elliott!
I think most say they oppose gerrymandering until it benefits them; sort of like asking 'is cheating in sports good?'
As a scientist, I love the "Christmas tree" graphs - like the one for "Trump underwater on all issues except border security." These are a highly efficient means of data display. However, I have received brutal feedback when I have shared such graphs with other scientists. Folks who are red-green color blind can't distinguish the colors, and placing the Disapprove-Approve labels directly over the data implies at first glace that the corresponding data are under the label. In the example I referenced, data for Approve would appear to be on the right. The research and analysis are outstanding, and so I hope that type of graph can be tweaked to help all readers more easily interpret the product. With respect and gratitude for your work!
Hi there Elliot. Will you fix the link to the generic congressional ballot? It automatically reverts to Trump approvals. Thank you!
Hi doc! That’s weird, I think something is up with substack’s in-page links. You can also go to this page and scroll down! https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
Thanks much!
Having designed survey research and taught general research methods, I I'm grateful that you value methodological transparency and longitudinal consistency in questions. I also enjoy the meta-question on use of the survey. Also, I support the idea of questions unpacking how respondents define "border security."
Suggestion for a future poll -- find out how many people can provide the party of their Representative, Senators, and Governor, and how many can actually name those in office.
But the MAGA party and Trump clearly lead in efforts to totally rig the mid-terms and the 2028 election.
We need to stop kidding ourselves. America is no longer a two party democracy. It has become a Monarchy with one opposition party. It's the Kingdom of Trump vs the Democratic Party. From now until 2028 we need to keep fighting for our freedoms, equal rights and human decency against the forces of a fascist monarchy. We were here in 1776 and in 1860. Hopefully we won't need a shooting war to undo the Monarchy. Hopefully, public humiliation will shame America back to its senses.
Trump probably needs to die before the fascist fever can break
Trump is a mighty powerful sorcerer for sure, which is to say the head of the MAGA snake will hopefully be irreplaceable and the fire will go out when he's gone.
I wonder what metrics or measures the people surveyed use to decide if things are better or worse. Grocery prices or consumer prices more broadly? Employment numbers or their own sense of job security? Their monthly budget or stock exchange fluctuations? Their social media friends or Fox?
Given that people don't vote on conclusions, but on feelings, why do they feel the way they do?
I think it would be interesting to have deeper insight into approval for "border security" vs. disapproval of mass deportation
I'd love to know what they mean when they talk about border security. Then I'd love to know how much they know about the reality of the process.
The blue state governors must convene a Conference of Governors in Illinois immediately and set up the firewall to pour sand in the gears of a rogue, fascist and racist federal government that looms over our Democracy.
This must happen soon….
Hi Elliott! Hope you are well---- I gave up and moved to France---but I still keep my fingers crossed that your numbers are on the mark--- Listen, maybe I missed something, but did you ever break down them demos on this 33%? Who the HELL are these people? What pharmaceuticals do they have access to that the rest of us have missed out on? ( "Right vs. wrong track: 33% say the U.S. is on the right track; 57% say wrong track.)
Take care and bonne chance!
best, christy
Polling suggestions:
1. Have you heard of the following persons?
2. What have you heard about him/her, in ten words or less?
3. Based on what you have heard about them, is your opinion of him/her favorable or unfavorable?
Kilmar Abrego Garcia
Stephen Miller
Pam Bondi
Kristi Noem
1. How much do you know about the following departments or agencies on a scale of 1 to 10?
2. Is your opinion of the department or agency favorable or unfavorable?
Department of Justice
Department of Homeland Security
ICE
Understanding that it's too early for a model, I'm curious what the likely party vote share is to determine control of the House in the midterms. I.e. assuming 8% generic ballot advantage holds, is that enough for Democrats to win a majority of seats next year?
I think this is somewhat in flux, given the redistricting fights. However, I think if the 8% persists, it's more than enough for a House majority. (For reference, 2018 was something like D+9).
I was a little surprised Trump did as well as he did on the personal finance question. I know a plurality were generally negative, however, almost every metric you could pick to gauge the economy is materially worse than when Trump took office so I thought his numbers might be a bit worse since this hits home for everyone. I am little worried that people are paying more attention to vibes that come from the administration about the great economy and not the actual facts and their lived experience.
Did your poll break down the gerrymandering question(s) by state?
It would be interesting to see how aware people are of the process in their state and particularly whether they have an independent commission already. And to see how much residents in states with maps overturned by the judiciary are affected by the political fighting over this.
We don’t really have the sample size to be able to do this responsibly, unfortunately. But looking at some modeling solutions
The dreaded “sample size”. I thought that might be the case.
Since gerrymandering is so different in different states, I expect people’s experience of it is quite different.
Thank you! The fact that numbers showed people still favoring process over result was a relief. We get so bogged down with all of the partisan posts online that it can seem like that people truly are hopelessly partisan, and they aren’t. I truly appreciate your work, G. Elliott!