Kind of prosaic but I suggest a different font and larger type for 50+1. It is the same or similar to this one in the comments which is also too small. Yes I can make it bigger, but that's a step that screws up other newsletters. I know whine whine, but still enticing readers with attractive fonts, and legible size is important...if you want to pry our social security dollars out of our moth eaten wallets.
Lots of blood, sweat and tears here! A huge effort and very much needed and appreciated by data nerds everywhere. So thank you. 🙏🏽
Also appreciate the shout out for independents/unaffiliated candidates in the beet-red states. The Dem candidates in those ultra red states have almost no chance. But the independents who articulate solid planks to a platform may have a chance.
I'd like to believe that Beth Macy has better than a 1 percent chance of beating Ben Cline here in VA6. Especially since she's outraising him, which no previous Democratic candidate has come close to doing.
I mean I clearly subscribed on the strength of your analysis but on a side note, I like the writing voices on the 50+1 team enough that I'd love to read side projects about data perspectives from their hobbies. Kinda like 538's initial foray into sports
I see you have Nebraska Senate coded bright red, but I have the impression that Osborne, a union organizer very likely to caucus with Dems, running as an independent, is competitive, wth the Democrats not running a candidate.
Love this election forecast, but what happens when the October surprises emerge? Trump is certainly going to release “evidence” of 2020 election tampering from the Fulton County raid. And Maduro will no doubt also be coerced into announcing (in exchange for his freedom and God knows what else) that Venezuela stole that election (too.) And of course Trump will announce Iran’s unconditional surrender.. And that we’re invading Greenland again. And maybe Canada too. And then, of course, they are obviously planning to seize ballot boxes and voting machines and refuse to certify the election results.. so it feels like maybe too soon to celebrate very much.
Is it possible that Hegseth's testosteronized military will be a force useful to stop fair elections this year, especially if Trump invokes martial law? Could it be that he seems unworried about the GOP'S fate in the election is because he IS unworried? Dare we ignore nightmare scenarios like this one?
Thank you very much for your top notch work. Certainly did not intend my comment to seem critical whatsoever in that respect. Just want to discourage folks from letting our guard down for the attacks on our democracy that are sure to continue and increase in severity. Trump has demonstrated quite clearly that, in an effort to hold onto power, there is very little immoral and illegal behavior he is unwilling to engage in.
More likely than gwHP's scenario is the the Mad King will declare an emergency and try to stop the election or the vote count. I don't think any model of how people will vote can make a projection for such scenarios, but some pundits are suggesting that a tsunami win for Democrats can prevent such outcomes, as in Hungary.
Fingers crossed that voters will SHOW UP and put a stop to this slide into authoritarianism.
Our country is better than this, and we need to remember all of the reasons America is great and rescind the employment of the petty thieves who are trying to appropriate OUR government for their own nefarious purposes.
Thank you Katie and Mary!!
Kind of prosaic but I suggest a different font and larger type for 50+1. It is the same or similar to this one in the comments which is also too small. Yes I can make it bigger, but that's a step that screws up other newsletters. I know whine whine, but still enticing readers with attractive fonts, and legible size is important...if you want to pry our social security dollars out of our moth eaten wallets.
So excited for your team...and for our democracy!
Notable that your model lands very close to where Split Ticket's does.
Lots of blood, sweat and tears here! A huge effort and very much needed and appreciated by data nerds everywhere. So thank you. 🙏🏽
Also appreciate the shout out for independents/unaffiliated candidates in the beet-red states. The Dem candidates in those ultra red states have almost no chance. But the independents who articulate solid planks to a platform may have a chance.
I'd like to believe that Beth Macy has better than a 1 percent chance of beating Ben Cline here in VA6. Especially since she's outraising him, which no previous Democratic candidate has come close to doing.
This is fabulous! Having a trusted source for these stats makes a huge difference. Great way
To start the week as well!
I mean I clearly subscribed on the strength of your analysis but on a side note, I like the writing voices on the 50+1 team enough that I'd love to read side projects about data perspectives from their hobbies. Kinda like 538's initial foray into sports
I can make a plot of my sleep score since my daughter was born!
I see you have Nebraska Senate coded bright red, but I have the impression that Osborne, a union organizer very likely to caucus with Dems, running as an independent, is competitive, wth the Democrats not running a candidate.
We give him a 1/5 shot, and that’ll increase if he continues to poll well!
Great graphic!
Love this election forecast, but what happens when the October surprises emerge? Trump is certainly going to release “evidence” of 2020 election tampering from the Fulton County raid. And Maduro will no doubt also be coerced into announcing (in exchange for his freedom and God knows what else) that Venezuela stole that election (too.) And of course Trump will announce Iran’s unconditional surrender.. And that we’re invading Greenland again. And maybe Canada too. And then, of course, they are obviously planning to seize ballot boxes and voting machines and refuse to certify the election results.. so it feels like maybe too soon to celebrate very much.
Is it possible that Hegseth's testosteronized military will be a force useful to stop fair elections this year, especially if Trump invokes martial law? Could it be that he seems unworried about the GOP'S fate in the election is because he IS unworried? Dare we ignore nightmare scenarios like this one?
Maybe I will add an explicit couple of paragraphs about this, but our model does not account for things such as the end of democracy in America
Thank you very much for your top notch work. Certainly did not intend my comment to seem critical whatsoever in that respect. Just want to discourage folks from letting our guard down for the attacks on our democracy that are sure to continue and increase in severity. Trump has demonstrated quite clearly that, in an effort to hold onto power, there is very little immoral and illegal behavior he is unwilling to engage in.
Not at all!
More likely than gwHP's scenario is the the Mad King will declare an emergency and try to stop the election or the vote count. I don't think any model of how people will vote can make a projection for such scenarios, but some pundits are suggesting that a tsunami win for Democrats can prevent such outcomes, as in Hungary.
Oh, and to be clear, I certainly do hope my predictions are completely wrong.
Blue tsunami might just get the job done! 🌊
Hi Elliott,
Congratulations on the launch of your forecast!!! There needs to be more forecasts out there and I'm glad that your just launched!!!
-Elliot
Elliot,
Thanks!
Elliott
Fingers crossed that voters will SHOW UP and put a stop to this slide into authoritarianism.
Our country is better than this, and we need to remember all of the reasons America is great and rescind the employment of the petty thieves who are trying to appropriate OUR government for their own nefarious purposes.
I hope you guys are making a lot of money on this! Excellent work!
Well we’re not yet, but that’s not really the mission :)
Still, would love to be able to pay the team full time