I mean I clearly subscribed on the strength of your analysis but on a side note, I like the writing voices on the 50+1 team enough that I'd love to read side projects about data perspectives from their hobbies. Kinda like 538's initial foray into sports
I see you have Nebraska Senate coded bright red, but I have the impression that Osborne, a union organizer very likely to caucus with Dems, running as an independent, is competitive, wth the Democrats not running a candidate.
Love this election forecast, but what happens when the October surprises emerge? Trump is certainly going to release “evidence” of 2020 election tampering from the Fulton County raid. And Maduro will no doubt also be coerced into announcing (in exchange for his freedom and God knows what else) that Venezuela stole that election (too.) And of course Trump will announce Iran’s unconditional surrender.. And that we’re invading Greenland again. And maybe Canada too. And then, of course, they are obviously planning to seize ballot boxes and voting machines and refuse to certify the election results.. so it feels like maybe too soon to celebrate very much.
More likely than gwHP's scenario is the the Mad King will declare an emergency and try to stop the election or the vote count. I don't think any model of how people will vote can make a projection for such scenarios, but some pundits are suggesting that a tsunami win for Democrats can prevent such outcomes, as in Hungary.
Fingers crossed that voters will SHOW UP and put a stop to this slide into authoritarianism.
Our country is better than this, and we need to remember all of the reasons America is great and rescind the employment of the petty thieves who are trying to appropriate OUR government for their own nefarious purposes.
I mean I clearly subscribed on the strength of your analysis but on a side note, I like the writing voices on the 50+1 team enough that I'd love to read side projects about data perspectives from their hobbies. Kinda like 538's initial foray into sports
I see you have Nebraska Senate coded bright red, but I have the impression that Osborne, a union organizer very likely to caucus with Dems, running as an independent, is competitive, wth the Democrats not running a candidate.
We give him a 1/5 shot, and that’ll increase if he continues to poll well!
Great graphic!
Love this election forecast, but what happens when the October surprises emerge? Trump is certainly going to release “evidence” of 2020 election tampering from the Fulton County raid. And Maduro will no doubt also be coerced into announcing (in exchange for his freedom and God knows what else) that Venezuela stole that election (too.) And of course Trump will announce Iran’s unconditional surrender.. And that we’re invading Greenland again. And maybe Canada too. And then, of course, they are obviously planning to seize ballot boxes and voting machines and refuse to certify the election results.. so it feels like maybe too soon to celebrate very much.
Maybe I will add an explicit couple of paragraphs about this, but our model does not account for things such as the end of democracy in America
More likely than gwHP's scenario is the the Mad King will declare an emergency and try to stop the election or the vote count. I don't think any model of how people will vote can make a projection for such scenarios, but some pundits are suggesting that a tsunami win for Democrats can prevent such outcomes, as in Hungary.
Hi Elliott,
Congratulations on the launch of your forecast!!! There needs to be more forecasts out there and I'm glad that your just launched!!!
-Elliot
Elliot,
Thanks!
Elliott
Fingers crossed that voters will SHOW UP and put a stop to this slide into authoritarianism.
Our country is better than this, and we need to remember all of the reasons America is great and rescind the employment of the petty thieves who are trying to appropriate OUR government for their own nefarious purposes.
I hope you guys are making a lot of money on this! Excellent work!
Well we’re not yet, but that’s not really the mission :)
Still, would love to be able to pay the team full time