Democrats take lead on Gallup national party ID | Weekly roundup for August 2, 2025

This week in political data: Thermostat go click-click-click. Plus: Virginia election forecast; more on party favorability data; and a new way to poll vote intention?

Dear readers,

Today’s dispatch comes to you from deep in the woods of Shenandoah National Park: Big Meadows campground, spot 30, facing due East. The park, and this campground in particular, has lots of rich history, dating back to the 1930s and its development by the national CCC program under Roosevelt. Today Shenandoah is a popular destination for weekenders coming out from Washington, DC and is something of a haven for those who brave the Appalachian Trail; it is flatter than other sections and has nicer shelters (the food in NPS lodge is also better than trail food, if a hiker wants a break).

The park is full this weekend, visitors are happy, and nature surrounds us. No sign yet of damage from funding cuts for the NPS, and the way we showcase America’s natural beauty — the eighth wonder of the world!

This is your weekend Strength In Numbers data dispatch, written about as far away from the data factories as you can get.

---

Dems take lead on Gallup party ID trend. Here’s what to know

A new Gallup poll released this week finds more Americans identify as Democrats or independents who lean toward the Democratic Party (46%) than Republicans or Republican-leaners (43%). Gallup writes that:

The three-percentage-point Democratic advantage compares with a tie between the two parties in the first quarter of 2025, after a four-point Republican lead in the fourth quarter of 2024. Until now, the Republican Party had led or tied in most quarters since 2023.

But it’s not all good news for Democrats. Americans are not exactly happy with the Democratic label; “The net three-point increase in Democratic affiliation between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025, from 43% to 46%, is entirely due to more Americans saying they are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party (up four points), not because more are identifying as Democrats outright (*down* one point).”

Meanwhile, Republicans’ four-point decline over the same period is due to equal two-point declines in the percentages of people identifying as and leaning Republican.

As such, most of the movement in party affiliation in the past three quarters has occurred among U.S. adults with weaker party attachments — leaning independents — than among core party identifiers.

And in Gallup’s data, as in other recent surveys, the Democratic Party also has a historically low favorability rating and is trusted less than Republicans to handle most major political issues.

That the movement to the left is only among independents should be a warning to party leadership. At this point, Gallup’s new data suggests, the Democrats are not winning the game of ideas, they’re just winning over a small number of marginal voters who are upset with the party in control of the White House. That’s the typical thermostatic midterm backlash, where voters turn the electoral dial away from the president. Any gains made while the Democratic party’s own image and competency ratings are under water, in other words, are likely to be weak, motivated by anti-Trump sentiment and thus (in theory) not very long lasting.

In the short-term, though, the historical patterns suggests that swings among “just” independents are still consequential. After all, a vote is worth the same regardless of the party affiliation of who casts it. Gallup reports that in 2009, 2017 and 2021, party ID for the out-party also surged only among independents.

It’s probable the deeper problems with the Democratic brand are likely to be addressed less by party leadership during the midterm cycle, when electoral signals look good. But that doesn’t change the reality of the political signals.

---

What you missed at Strength In Numbers

Last week was a busy 4-post week here at SIN:

• On Friday, we launched our average of House “generic ballot” polls. Democrats lead by 2-2.5 points.

• On Wednesday, I published our monthly Q&A — about a lot of things, but especially the new Republican gerrymander in Texas. (Premium post, partly paywalled for paid subscribers.)

• On Tuesday, Mary Radcliffe and I published an analysis of party favorability ratings. We ultimately came to the conclusion that the Dems are lagging largely because of in-party disaffection from very left-leaning voter — likely not a consequential factor for the midterms. (Premium post, partly paywalled for paid subscribers.)

• And on Sunday, I published our prior weekly roundup of new political data.

---

Even more numbers!

Below is an abridged version of the usual weekly data list (these are the links I remembered to save by Friday afternoon):

• Virginia is for forecast lovers: Election forecasts show Democrats overwhelmingly favored in Virginia 2025 elections

• What’s in a number? Why we can’t separate approval ratings from polarization and dysfunction

• You’ve got some ‘splainin to do: New Epstein polling from the post shows Americans think Trump is hiding something

• Data for Progress poll on why Zohran Mamdani won the NYC Dem. primary. Also in this poll: Bernie is the most popular member of the Democratic Party in New York.

• Please won’t you be my neighbor: YouGov tested the efficacy of using voters’ reporters about how their neighbors would vote as a supplement to traditional pre-election polls. The results are not positive — this is not a robust metric and it doesn’t look more accurate than just asking people what they think.

---

Updates from the data portal

• Trump approval update: Trump’s back at the -12 net approval mark:

  

• Issue approval update:

  

• Our first week with a generic ballot average!

  

The charts on the data portal update every day. Feel free to use and cite them liberally!

---

That’s it for your major political data stories this week.

Got more for next week? Email them or add to the comments below!

Have a nice week,

Elliott