I remember being confused about the poor economic sentiment heading into the 2024 election. We'd had inflation, but it had been under control for over a year. And many/most other objective economic indicators seemed to be in good shape.
I was curious about how long negative public sentiment (consumer sentiment? presidential approval? I no longer remember the details, sorry) tended to last following bouts of inflation, so I tried to look into it. The subject is outside my comfort zone, but what I saw made me think that negative public sentiment over post-pandemic inflation lingered significantly longer than with prior bouts of inflation.
Is this anything you've looked into? I know I'd read about how public opinion had diverged from major economic indicators in a new way in the last few years, and I'd love to know your opinion on whether that's the case and, if so, why.
Lots of people have tried to explain to me why it made sense for economic sentiment to be negative in 2024 despite positive economic indicators, and I don't think I found a single explanation that both had a falsifiable empirical basis and that applied with any consistency over the last 50 years or so.
Walmart’s promisesd Thanksgiving Dinner price drop: the devil is also in the details—6 fewer items than in 2024 and many of the remaining items are also cheaper brands or cheaper kinds of food.
I love that you are fighting the conflation of "inflation" with "prices", but I do wonder if there's a point at which the economic mobility and wealth inequality arguments start to override prices as a concern. We haven't seen it yet , but given that inflation has not returned to its highs of 2021-2022, which is very different from the 1970s, for example, the public has to just get used to the prices being higher at some point, don't they?
I feel like the bigger-picture issue is the concentration of wealth/capital, and therefore stake in the economy, with a tiny group of people. When healthy, capitalism + taxation work because they maximize the number of people with a personal stake in a country's success. Second-round Trumpism has a very clear economic platform of shrinking the people with stakes in the economy to those Trump can collect bribes from and make demands of - classic corrupt dictator stuff. The consequence of rendering most of the population cynically detached from the nation's fate could be a series of one-term presidencies, or it could be more dramatic...
Yes, there's something to this. The "system is rigged against you" sentiment of Bernie 2016/Trump 2024/Mamdani 2025 is something I see every day with the people in my neighborhood (a multifamily lower/middle class suburb of DC) and especially in talking to other young people. Would be good for someone to do a study disentangling prices and rigging as concerns for normal voters.
You seem to suggest that while this economic anxiety continues, and intensely so, voters will not be thinking about much else, such as civil liberties, health care, climate safety. Is that an accurate read? Besides maximizing his profitable, criminal exploits, is he strategizing that people thus traumatized will not be able/willing to stop the other cruelties he imposes--? If so, we are the ones screwed.
the corporatist elements of the Democractic party have a big decision coming up - corporate campaign money or votes. The funny thing about this decision is that it is not really an either or as the "votes" decision brings money too, just one you have to work more to get. So maybe the decision is easy/lazy way or hard/responsive to constiuents way?
The Walmart comparison is not apples to apples. Smaller turkey and a lot fewer items. Thanksgiving on a diet, I guess. https://fortune.com/2025/11/08/walmart-thanksgiving-meal-basket-price-trump-shrinkflation-affordability/
I remember being confused about the poor economic sentiment heading into the 2024 election. We'd had inflation, but it had been under control for over a year. And many/most other objective economic indicators seemed to be in good shape.
I was curious about how long negative public sentiment (consumer sentiment? presidential approval? I no longer remember the details, sorry) tended to last following bouts of inflation, so I tried to look into it. The subject is outside my comfort zone, but what I saw made me think that negative public sentiment over post-pandemic inflation lingered significantly longer than with prior bouts of inflation.
Is this anything you've looked into? I know I'd read about how public opinion had diverged from major economic indicators in a new way in the last few years, and I'd love to know your opinion on whether that's the case and, if so, why.
Lots of people have tried to explain to me why it made sense for economic sentiment to be negative in 2024 despite positive economic indicators, and I don't think I found a single explanation that both had a falsifiable empirical basis and that applied with any consistency over the last 50 years or so.
I wonder if this anti incumbency is a product of 'flooding the zone with shit'?
If people don't trust anyone they turn to their feelings.
We will see "More dramatic".
Walmart’s promisesd Thanksgiving Dinner price drop: the devil is also in the details—6 fewer items than in 2024 and many of the remaining items are also cheaper brands or cheaper kinds of food.
I love that you are fighting the conflation of "inflation" with "prices", but I do wonder if there's a point at which the economic mobility and wealth inequality arguments start to override prices as a concern. We haven't seen it yet , but given that inflation has not returned to its highs of 2021-2022, which is very different from the 1970s, for example, the public has to just get used to the prices being higher at some point, don't they?
I feel like the bigger-picture issue is the concentration of wealth/capital, and therefore stake in the economy, with a tiny group of people. When healthy, capitalism + taxation work because they maximize the number of people with a personal stake in a country's success. Second-round Trumpism has a very clear economic platform of shrinking the people with stakes in the economy to those Trump can collect bribes from and make demands of - classic corrupt dictator stuff. The consequence of rendering most of the population cynically detached from the nation's fate could be a series of one-term presidencies, or it could be more dramatic...
Yes, there's something to this. The "system is rigged against you" sentiment of Bernie 2016/Trump 2024/Mamdani 2025 is something I see every day with the people in my neighborhood (a multifamily lower/middle class suburb of DC) and especially in talking to other young people. Would be good for someone to do a study disentangling prices and rigging as concerns for normal voters.
You seem to suggest that while this economic anxiety continues, and intensely so, voters will not be thinking about much else, such as civil liberties, health care, climate safety. Is that an accurate read? Besides maximizing his profitable, criminal exploits, is he strategizing that people thus traumatized will not be able/willing to stop the other cruelties he imposes--? If so, we are the ones screwed.
When Matt Yglesias and G Elliot Morris agree on something, you know something's about to go down.
who
Lmao that was Matt's reaction too
the corporatist elements of the Democractic party have a big decision coming up - corporate campaign money or votes. The funny thing about this decision is that it is not really an either or as the "votes" decision brings money too, just one you have to work more to get. So maybe the decision is easy/lazy way or hard/responsive to constiuents way?