Trump's deportation agenda is underwater in every swing state. Plus, Sabato moves 13 House ratings toward Democrats. Your weekly political data roundup for August 2, 2026.
Based on 2023/2024 numbers, the approval of Trump's various immigration and deportation policies by state seems to have a negative correlation with the percent of residents who are immigrants ("legal" or "illegal".) For example, CA has ~28% immigrant share of the population and is the strongest opponent of Trump's policies. W.Va is 2% immigrant and supports Trump's / MAGA's policy preferences. The only outlier seems to be CO, which is ~11% immigrant (about same as OR or DE), but is on the MAGA side of things.
For the most part, it seems Trump's hateful attitude toward immigrants is most favored by those who are likely to have the least direct experience with immigrants. Similar to those who decry crime in *other* states while being unaware of their own elevated rates.
The current indications are of a probable blue wave in November. This is apparently potentially jeopardised where DSA candidates are on the ballot and open to the 'communism' charge. It would be interesting to know if this vulnerability is uniform across the US or more likely in red, purple or indeed, blue districts/states.
Under Republican rule, there is a projected cut to Social Security payments of 22% in six years, along with current cuts to Medicare, but seniors don't seem to be turning significantly away from the party. A question such as "How concerned are you about reductions in Social Security and Medicare payments?" might shed some light on whether this is an effective campaign issue.
The approval maps look great but the scale changes for each map, which can be somewhat misleading. Could you fix the scale for each question set? Or better yet fix coloration absolutely (across all maps)?
Yeah, this is something I’m aware of will work on! Not as easy at it looks because as you say a dynamic color scale can confuse you across charts, but with a fixed scale, often times you get maps that are just one solid color. I ended up doing the latter toward the end of this post but will systematize and perfect the legend
Just the maps on "deporting without a hearing" and "mass deportation vs a path to citizenship" made my eyes water with hope that we are not descending into utter fascism (yet).
I am relieved and grateful that so many Americans still believe in due process of law.
And the fact that this administration clearly does NOT will hopefully lose them lots of votes come November.
Question: what would the generic congressional ballot need to be for Democrats to have a shot at a filibuster proof majority in the Senate? That would be a pick up of 13 seats, and would go beyond the swing states, and those currently considered competitive. My own analysis indicates D +18. But, I would like to know what the real numbers people think.
Ed, I have done this math for this newsletter before but am having trouble finding the article. D+18 seems about right — and on the other end, Reps can control 60 seats at around R+8 IIRC. Hugely asymmetric power here, and why Dems should consider tossing the filibuster
Based on 2023/2024 numbers, the approval of Trump's various immigration and deportation policies by state seems to have a negative correlation with the percent of residents who are immigrants ("legal" or "illegal".) For example, CA has ~28% immigrant share of the population and is the strongest opponent of Trump's policies. W.Va is 2% immigrant and supports Trump's / MAGA's policy preferences. The only outlier seems to be CO, which is ~11% immigrant (about same as OR or DE), but is on the MAGA side of things.
For the most part, it seems Trump's hateful attitude toward immigrants is most favored by those who are likely to have the least direct experience with immigrants. Similar to those who decry crime in *other* states while being unaware of their own elevated rates.
I think of this as "The Fox News Effect".
The current indications are of a probable blue wave in November. This is apparently potentially jeopardised where DSA candidates are on the ballot and open to the 'communism' charge. It would be interesting to know if this vulnerability is uniform across the US or more likely in red, purple or indeed, blue districts/states.
Under Republican rule, there is a projected cut to Social Security payments of 22% in six years, along with current cuts to Medicare, but seniors don't seem to be turning significantly away from the party. A question such as "How concerned are you about reductions in Social Security and Medicare payments?" might shed some light on whether this is an effective campaign issue.
The approval maps look great but the scale changes for each map, which can be somewhat misleading. Could you fix the scale for each question set? Or better yet fix coloration absolutely (across all maps)?
Yeah, this is something I’m aware of will work on! Not as easy at it looks because as you say a dynamic color scale can confuse you across charts, but with a fixed scale, often times you get maps that are just one solid color. I ended up doing the latter toward the end of this post but will systematize and perfect the legend
Just the maps on "deporting without a hearing" and "mass deportation vs a path to citizenship" made my eyes water with hope that we are not descending into utter fascism (yet).
I am relieved and grateful that so many Americans still believe in due process of law.
And the fact that this administration clearly does NOT will hopefully lose them lots of votes come November.
Question: what would the generic congressional ballot need to be for Democrats to have a shot at a filibuster proof majority in the Senate? That would be a pick up of 13 seats, and would go beyond the swing states, and those currently considered competitive. My own analysis indicates D +18. But, I would like to know what the real numbers people think.
Ed, I have done this math for this newsletter before but am having trouble finding the article. D+18 seems about right — and on the other end, Reps can control 60 seats at around R+8 IIRC. Hugely asymmetric power here, and why Dems should consider tossing the filibuster
Or turn DC and Puerto Rico into states. Side note: If Greenland became the 51st state the GOP wouldn’t like it.