Experts now rate the U.S. as a "mixed" or "illiberal" democracy

Experts say political violence, Trump's attacks against non-partisan agencies and institutions, and partisan gerrymandering are their top concerns

The U.S. has never been a full democracy. By this I mean mainly that for most of our country’s history, full voting and civil rights have been reserved for only a subset of the American people: only in 1920 did women gain the right to vote, for example; Black Americans were ensured it in 1965, barely 60 years ago.

But even today, many components of the political experience in other liberal societies — experts cite countries like Australia, Sweden, and Denmark as the archetypal “full democracies” — are not present in America. This includes factors beyond base voting rights, such as full legal and practical protections for the free press, whether electoral institutions give each voter the same weight in determining election outcomes and the balance of power, legislative and judicial accountability for the president, and many others.

Political scientists at the V-Dem Institute in Sweden show how the U.S. is currently lagging behind our regional neighbors, after taking a big hit in 2015-16 (the data below is not updated for 2025 yet):

And many events of the last few months underscore this broad political decay in America. For example, the murder of Charlie Kirk and the right’s subsequent use of it to pursue vengeance against Trump’s political opponents are both symptoms of a sick and divided political culture. Trump’s attacks on the press are a reminder that freedom of expression is not as safeguarded as our reverence for the First Amendment implies. And the tit-for-tat partisan gerrymandering started by Republicans in Texas threatens to erode the voting power of partisan minorities across the country.

I bring all of this up by way of introducing the latest data from researchers at Bright Line Watch, a collection of academics that describes itself as “bringing together a group of political scientists to monitor democratic practices, their resilience, and potential threats.”

Their latest analysis should be a wake-up call to anyone interested in the state of our democracy. I will highlight a few findings I thought were most interesting.

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The U.S. is a “mixed democracy” now

Today, Bright Line Watch released its latest data on the state of U.S. democracy. I’m covering this report for two reasons. First, because visual data frankly always make for a good post here at Strength In Numbers. But more importantly, because I think hard data is a crucial tool for convincing people about the seriousness of the threats we now face.

There’s a lot to dive into (the full report is here), but I especially wanted to highlight the following sentence:

Current expert ratings of U.S. democracy are closer to those of a mixed or illiberal democracy than a full democracy or countries often considered as relevant comparisons such as Great Britain and Canada.

Specifically, a group of experts was asked to grade the U.S. on a scale of 0 to 100, with 0 representing a dictatorship and 100 representing an ideal democratic society. The U.S. lands about halfway on this scale:

The current expert rating of 54 continues to place the United States between the scores that experts gave in April 2025 to Israel (49) and Mexico (60) and well below our nominal democratic peers of Great Britain (83) and Canada (88).

But one question I always have with these reports is: What the hell does it mean to be a “54 out of 100” on democracy, anyway?

BLW has an answer. The team also asked experts to rate a set of hypothetical countries with a mix of democratic and illiberal traits so they could characterize what a 54 means here in the real world. The U.S. is compared closer to a country described as a “mixed” or “illiberal” democracy:

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A “mixed democracy” is defined as having the following traits (I have made slight modifications to BLW’s definitions for clarity):

• Elections: Elections are competitive but not fully competitive; opposition campaigns face disadvantages in access to venues and media; incumbent use of state resources for campaigns is prohibited but weakly enforced.

• Courts: Judges are appointed through a mixed procedure with executive influence; the judiciary is partially independent; courts only infrequently review or annul executive acts.

• Law enforcement: Prosecutors are subordinate to the executive; charging decisions are exposed to political influence; high-profile cases against opposition figures are sometimes, but rarely, announced near elections.

• Media: Media regulation nominally protects editorial independence; national broadcasters face administrative pressure; accreditation and access rules are selectively applied.

• Government data: Official statistics and the national audit institutions are shaped by input from political leaders; reports are sometimes reviewed before release.

• Civil service: Senior civil service appointments are governed by merit rules with wide discretion for political appointments; vacancies are unevenly advertised.

Violations of democratic rules and norms

In terms of specific democratic principles, here is how experts (as well as how partisans among the public) rate each of the many factors Bright Line Watch tracks:

From April to September, expert ratings declined significantly in the following areas: toleration of peaceful protest (from 49% in April 2025 to 38% in September 2025), not using government agencies to punish political opponents (from 15% to 7%), and unbiased election district boundaries (from 8% to 3%). BLW says, “These changes are especially notable considering that the latter two principles had little room to decline further from their previous levels.”

And experts rate the following events of the last few months as posing a threat to democracy. The colors reflect the percentage of people saying each is an “extraordinary”, ”serious,” “moderate,” or “little” threat to the U.S.:

Since January, here are the events the experts rate as posing the greatest threat to democracy:

Understanding the problem is the first step to finding solutions

At the social level, democracy is the agreement to live side by side with people you don’t agree with. The new report from Bright Line Watch paints a sobering picture of American democracy in 2025 — and of a failure of the people in power to hold up their side of the democratic bargain. When experts place the United States closer to mixed democracies like Israel and Mexico than to peer nations like Britain and Canada, we should all perk up and pay attention.

But what makes these findings particularly alarming is the trajectory. The significant declines in areas like tolerance of peaceful protest, the politicization of government agencies, and the erosion of fair electoral districts show that our democratic institutions aren’t just weak (in the historical sense), they are being weakened. The threats identified by experts almost all come back to Donald Trump, showing how one man can dismantle the machinery of our democracy and weaponize power for partisan advantage. The experts polled by BLW forecast further erosion (to 47/100) by 2027.

But decline is not inevitable. Behind these falling rankings are conscious choices by political leaders, institutions, and ultimately citizens about what democratic violations they’re willing to tolerate. The characteristics of a “mixed democracy” that now describe America (from politically influenced prosecutors to bureaucratic attacks on the media) are all things that can be reversed through sustained civic engagement and smart political strategy.

Thanks to Bright Line Watch, the question isn’t whether people will notice the decline of American democracy; That much is now made clear for even the most disengaged citizens. This is a great public service and a contribution to the fight for America to become the best democracy the world has ever seen.

On that subject, the question now is what we’re going to do about democracy’s many threats. I think some good ideas are floating around out there… but that will have to be a subject for another time.