Slightly off-topic, but I wonder if you could poll (or can share a poll) self-described "independents" about where they stand on the political spectrum, either directly or by asking them how strongly they feel about key issues?
My guess is that the distribution of people who call themselves "independent" isn't so different from the population overall, but perhaps over-represented at the far left, middle, and far right.
Both Bernie (far left) and Angus King (moderate) are declared independents. I have friends of the far right who call themselves independents too, saying the the GOP doesn't really represent them.
QUESTION: Independents APPEAR to have turned away from Trump in droves. Is there polling on how firm that position is, and how do suburban women, especially, factor into that?
Elliott, has any pollster asked voters questions that gauge their depth of support for the Iran war. Its one thing to be against or for it, but how committed are they? I am sure if gasoline goes to an average of $4 or $4.50/ gallon that even many Republicans will start to have doubts and people who doubt their congressional members position on a war stay home or vote against them.
It would also be interesting to poll why they support the war. I'd also like to know how many of them would be willing for their kids to fight and die in this war.
As an addict reader of your SIN with (too) long background in empirical research I suggest you pay more attention to voting between alternatives. As a non-American it does not seem to me that the 5%-10% of MAGA who does not like Trump Policy for being even more on the right or even more on MAGA will vote democrats. The only reason to evaluate this group is if their media power goes down to the independent (something I doubt)
Same on addiction. No, but a lot of such MAGAs may stay home and not vote at all, which is something like 1/2 a vote for Dems. The GOP already has a problem that a small but important percentage of MAGA voters only show up when Trump himself appears on the ballot.
Hello, Elliott, Yesterday I stumbled upon Harvard Political Science professor Erica Chenoweth, author of Why Civil Resistance Works, Civil Resistance: What Everyone Needs to Know, several additional works on non-violent resistance, and the Youtube summarizing her work on civil resistance and the changes in the political and cultural reality since the beginning of the 21st century. Professor Chenoweth presents four necessary elements of successful civil resistance. They are:
1. the ability of people to organize large scale participation and build momentum
2. the ability to elicit loyalty shifts in key pillars of support- for example, wealth, security, and/or elected supporters of the regime.
3. the ability to build maintain resilience, even as violent repression escalates against a movement. Some repressive episodes, like being documented murdering civilians, backfire on the authority.
4. the ability to innovate new methods of resistance, beyond street demonstrations, in order to build pressure on the opponent without exposing a massive number of people to high risk.
So #2 is relevant today. Example: Thomas Massie.
Question to address is what momentum does it take to drop more dominoes in Senate and House.
Eh. It's been two weeks.
Slightly off-topic, but I wonder if you could poll (or can share a poll) self-described "independents" about where they stand on the political spectrum, either directly or by asking them how strongly they feel about key issues?
My guess is that the distribution of people who call themselves "independent" isn't so different from the population overall, but perhaps over-represented at the far left, middle, and far right.
Both Bernie (far left) and Angus King (moderate) are declared independents. I have friends of the far right who call themselves independents too, saying the the GOP doesn't really represent them.
Again, nice data, but never even mentions the important question; can Dems flip the Senate?
QUESTION: Independents APPEAR to have turned away from Trump in droves. Is there polling on how firm that position is, and how do suburban women, especially, factor into that?
thank you so much for Strength in Numbers--I read you faithfully and you regularly introduce light into darkness
Elliott, has any pollster asked voters questions that gauge their depth of support for the Iran war. Its one thing to be against or for it, but how committed are they? I am sure if gasoline goes to an average of $4 or $4.50/ gallon that even many Republicans will start to have doubts and people who doubt their congressional members position on a war stay home or vote against them.
It would also be interesting to poll why they support the war. I'd also like to know how many of them would be willing for their kids to fight and die in this war.
As an addict reader of your SIN with (too) long background in empirical research I suggest you pay more attention to voting between alternatives. As a non-American it does not seem to me that the 5%-10% of MAGA who does not like Trump Policy for being even more on the right or even more on MAGA will vote democrats. The only reason to evaluate this group is if their media power goes down to the independent (something I doubt)
Same on addiction. No, but a lot of such MAGAs may stay home and not vote at all, which is something like 1/2 a vote for Dems. The GOP already has a problem that a small but important percentage of MAGA voters only show up when Trump himself appears on the ballot.
Hello, Elliott, Yesterday I stumbled upon Harvard Political Science professor Erica Chenoweth, author of Why Civil Resistance Works, Civil Resistance: What Everyone Needs to Know, several additional works on non-violent resistance, and the Youtube summarizing her work on civil resistance and the changes in the political and cultural reality since the beginning of the 21st century. Professor Chenoweth presents four necessary elements of successful civil resistance. They are:
1. the ability of people to organize large scale participation and build momentum
2. the ability to elicit loyalty shifts in key pillars of support- for example, wealth, security, and/or elected supporters of the regime.
3. the ability to build maintain resilience, even as violent repression escalates against a movement. Some repressive episodes, like being documented murdering civilians, backfire on the authority.
4. the ability to innovate new methods of resistance, beyond street demonstrations, in order to build pressure on the opponent without exposing a massive number of people to high risk.
So #2 is relevant today. Example: Thomas Massie.
Question to address is what momentum does it take to drop more dominoes in Senate and House.
(https://substack.com/home/post/p-190959458)
It’s a simple rule. Committed cultists, including MAGA voters, will not undrink the Kool-Aid. They’ll just suffer the consequences.