This is a great article and very comprehensive. I know this will drive you and other readers crazy, but my only counterpoint/discussion point is basically - "vibe politics - or this: I'm skeptical of my fellow Americans. I think it's wild that a guy like this got re-elected and it's hard to know if a decline in republican sentiment will translate to republicans not voting in the next election or voting for a democrat. That's not meant as a critique of your article. I'm just frustrated with the current situation and I'm nervous that no matter how low things get, people will still vote for Trump/his replacement in the Republican Party.
Great article as usual! I really love the way you teach polling as you use it to back up your points. I always learn something new about the world of polling when I read your articles, no matter what the subject matter may be.
I know a few Trumplicans. From reading them, they were initially properly horrified by 1/6 and were ready to switch to DeSantis. Then FOX News and Trump lied their way to a new reality that somehow converted it to a peaceful protest with a few Biden inspired agitators. No, that doesn’t make sense, but when you’re part of a cult, you gotta stay in line. I still don’t know how they set aside their own judgment and bought the insanity, but they sure did.
That's true but there is a simpler explanation: Biden was aging and Trump made the campaign about Biden. By the time he dropped out, it was too late for Harris to come back.
The most my Trumplican family and friends might have done was either vote for someone other than Trump in the primary or sit out the election. Regarding the true swing voters, I agree that Biden ruined any chance of beating Trump by not admitting his failing acuity in 22/23. Personally, I don’t think Harris had a shot either way because she was so tightly linked to the administration. I wish Obama’s argument had prevailed over the Clintons’. It would have been interesting to see if a fresh candidate could have done the job.
With 20/20 hindsight, Biden should have announced he would not run again right after the 2022 midterms. That would have created a normal Democratic primary in 2024. Whoever won the primaries - possibly Harris - would have proved themselves in battle and built a strong national campaign. But as Hillary Clinton famously said, "Coulda Woulda Shoulda."
Elliott, you say, "The implications of this piece for Democratic strategy are two-fold." But I don't see a second point after "campaign on affordability"?
That's weird — Substack must have served you an old version. That paragraph is up in the latest verison and reads:
But second, campaigning on affordability won’t be enough in isolation to drive Trump’s approval down to its previous lows. That will require sustained opposition to the president’s policies in general. And on that subject, there are plenty of unpopular policies to point to.
In our Nov survey, income is correlated with higher Trump approval in an inverse U shape, after accounting for race, education, gender and age. Getting wealthier increases probability of approval, until your family makes more than 150k per year
0-50k: reference group
50-75: increase probability vs 0-50k group group by 8 points
75-150k: approval 10 points higher than 0-50k group
It seems to me that many of the people who say that Trump is keeping his promises on the economy must be thinking mainly about their taxes, which have been cut in various ways. (The rest of those expressing that view I would think are mostly hyper-partisan.)
Do you agree with my assumption about the salience of tax issues on the "is Trump keeping his promises" question?
Do any polls ask respondents specifically about their tax burden rather than about the more general topic "cost of living"?
I know the correlations indicate people are answering the questions as expected, but the way it’s worded, I would answer that he has met HIS goals and I deeply disapprove of his success. The wording on these questions might not completely capture people’s thoughts, which is always a challenge.
It's not just taxes - it's also personal wealth. We have a K-shaped economy where people with money to invest in the stock market are getting richer each day. This includes millions of Americans with retirement funds that are increasing in value.
They believe Trump deserves the credit and applaud his economic policies.
When the AI bubble bursts and stock prices fall, a lot of personal wealth will vanish - and Trump will lose that large segment of supporters.
Elliott: can you correlate the data to more ambiguous issues such as his public insults to women reporters and more importantly to his abject refusal even to accept the affordability issue? That was surprising but he would rather pretend that prices are up than to adopt the issue while arguing that it will get better such as the R winner did in TN 07?
Do any polls exist about the people who know in their hearts that trump and his enablers are scam artists but who choose to believe their lies before elections, vote for them anyway and then Later come back to reality and complain about their choices? Asking for a friend.
Somos Votantes just did some excellent polling on regretful and disappointed Latino Trump voters. Latinos are a crucial swing group so shifts in their polls affect the overall polls.
This is a great article and very comprehensive. I know this will drive you and other readers crazy, but my only counterpoint/discussion point is basically - "vibe politics - or this: I'm skeptical of my fellow Americans. I think it's wild that a guy like this got re-elected and it's hard to know if a decline in republican sentiment will translate to republicans not voting in the next election or voting for a democrat. That's not meant as a critique of your article. I'm just frustrated with the current situation and I'm nervous that no matter how low things get, people will still vote for Trump/his replacement in the Republican Party.
Great article as usual! I really love the way you teach polling as you use it to back up your points. I always learn something new about the world of polling when I read your articles, no matter what the subject matter may be.
Thanks. It is much appreciated.
I don’t understand how Trump went from 29% to winning an election. People just forgot about Jan 6? This is why people are skeptical of polls.
I know a few Trumplicans. From reading them, they were initially properly horrified by 1/6 and were ready to switch to DeSantis. Then FOX News and Trump lied their way to a new reality that somehow converted it to a peaceful protest with a few Biden inspired agitators. No, that doesn’t make sense, but when you’re part of a cult, you gotta stay in line. I still don’t know how they set aside their own judgment and bought the insanity, but they sure did.
That's true but there is a simpler explanation: Biden was aging and Trump made the campaign about Biden. By the time he dropped out, it was too late for Harris to come back.
The most my Trumplican family and friends might have done was either vote for someone other than Trump in the primary or sit out the election. Regarding the true swing voters, I agree that Biden ruined any chance of beating Trump by not admitting his failing acuity in 22/23. Personally, I don’t think Harris had a shot either way because she was so tightly linked to the administration. I wish Obama’s argument had prevailed over the Clintons’. It would have been interesting to see if a fresh candidate could have done the job.
With 20/20 hindsight, Biden should have announced he would not run again right after the 2022 midterms. That would have created a normal Democratic primary in 2024. Whoever won the primaries - possibly Harris - would have proved themselves in battle and built a strong national campaign. But as Hillary Clinton famously said, "Coulda Woulda Shoulda."
Elliott, you say, "The implications of this piece for Democratic strategy are two-fold." But I don't see a second point after "campaign on affordability"?
That's weird — Substack must have served you an old version. That paragraph is up in the latest verison and reads:
But second, campaigning on affordability won’t be enough in isolation to drive Trump’s approval down to its previous lows. That will require sustained opposition to the president’s policies in general. And on that subject, there are plenty of unpopular policies to point to.
Is there a way to correlate approval ratings on the economy with income (or wealth) levels as well? Do the most well-off approve more than the least?
In our Nov survey, income is correlated with higher Trump approval in an inverse U shape, after accounting for race, education, gender and age. Getting wealthier increases probability of approval, until your family makes more than 150k per year
0-50k: reference group
50-75: increase probability vs 0-50k group group by 8 points
75-150k: approval 10 points higher than 0-50k group
150k+: approval 7 points higher than 0-50k group
Interesting. Thank you. I wonder why the drop-off at >150k.
It seems to me that many of the people who say that Trump is keeping his promises on the economy must be thinking mainly about their taxes, which have been cut in various ways. (The rest of those expressing that view I would think are mostly hyper-partisan.)
Do you agree with my assumption about the salience of tax issues on the "is Trump keeping his promises" question?
Do any polls ask respondents specifically about their tax burden rather than about the more general topic "cost of living"?
I know the correlations indicate people are answering the questions as expected, but the way it’s worded, I would answer that he has met HIS goals and I deeply disapprove of his success. The wording on these questions might not completely capture people’s thoughts, which is always a challenge.
Something we can add to our Jan survey!
It's not just taxes - it's also personal wealth. We have a K-shaped economy where people with money to invest in the stock market are getting richer each day. This includes millions of Americans with retirement funds that are increasing in value.
They believe Trump deserves the credit and applaud his economic policies.
When the AI bubble bursts and stock prices fall, a lot of personal wealth will vanish - and Trump will lose that large segment of supporters.
You are so good at doing this creative work and presenting it clearly.
Thank you!!!
Elliott: can you correlate the data to more ambiguous issues such as his public insults to women reporters and more importantly to his abject refusal even to accept the affordability issue? That was surprising but he would rather pretend that prices are up than to adopt the issue while arguing that it will get better such as the R winner did in TN 07?
Do any polls exist about the people who know in their hearts that trump and his enablers are scam artists but who choose to believe their lies before elections, vote for them anyway and then Later come back to reality and complain about their choices? Asking for a friend.
We can do some polling to identify regretful Trump voters (using more neutral wording)
Somos Votantes just did some excellent polling on regretful and disappointed Latino Trump voters. Latinos are a crucial swing group so shifts in their polls affect the overall polls.
https://www.somosvotantes.com/press-releases/trumps-year-long-collapse-with-latino-voters-reaches-new-lows-as-more-than-1-in-3-who-voted-for-him-express-regret-or-disappointment-blame-gop-for-rising-costs