How to think about all these 2020 polls

Three points to guide your thinking

What to do when there is no signal in the noise

The takeaway: General election polls that come out this early are scarcely predictive. This is even truer at the state level. What is predictive, though, is the president’s approval rating. Lucky for poll-watchers, it’s showing the same thing as the head-to-heads. And given the current hyper-polarized political environment, early polls this time around could be more predictive than usual.