Just examine the “wave” effect just Latino voters alone will have? Enormous!! All across FL, TX, SC, and running up the farm belt including KS, NE, etc? That result alone kicks the result to a 240 to 195 WAVE? Kick in a massive turnout campaign going into effect also among Black voters everywhere? We haven’t seen such movements ethnically and racially? Who can produce any evidence now which rebuts this enormous “wave” alone? Produce it?
The google tells me that the Cook Political Report was first published in 1984. As an official old person who has been voting since the 70s, I wonder if Charlie Cook is having difficulty naming and claiming his biases? I know I see the worlds of politics a lot differently now than I did in the mid-80s. Social scientists and sociologists think that our heads and beliefs get a little (or a lot) more brittle with age. It is harder for old peeps to adjust long-held views. So maybe The Cook report needs to get out of the office and go talk with some nonwhite 20 and 30 year olds. Those youngsters all have very different interpretations of politics than I did at that age.
I'm an old guy who nearly failed statistics 60 years ago, but 35% who can't name the three branches of government sounds about like the percent who will still vote MAGA as the world burns.
Just examine the “wave” effect just Latino voters alone will have? Enormous!! All across FL, TX, SC, and running up the farm belt including KS, NE, etc? That result alone kicks the result to a 240 to 195 WAVE? Kick in a massive turnout campaign going into effect also among Black voters everywhere? We haven’t seen such movements ethnically and racially? Who can produce any evidence now which rebuts this enormous “wave” alone? Produce it?
Elliot - you used several terms in your opening section – in a single paragraph actually – that I’m not entirely clear on the distinctions. Can you clear these up for me and explain what the different operators are and how they differ?
Raters
Statistical modelers
Quantitative forecasters
Forecasters
Handicappers
And if there are others we might see referenced, please include those.
The prediction I made 45 days ago was 225-210 (+/- 5) , and I'm sticking with that (betting more on the high side at PredictIt, as I think it will slide upward). We've had 222-213 twice in recent years (once the other way), and that is a tempting point of repose if we eschew the round numbers.
Just examine the “wave” effect just Latino voters alone will have? Enormous!! All across FL, TX, SC, and running up the farm belt including KS, NE, etc? That result alone kicks the result to a 240 to 195 WAVE? Kick in a massive turnout campaign going into effect also among Black voters everywhere? We haven’t seen such movements ethnically and racially? Who can produce any evidence now which rebuts this enormous “wave” alone? Produce it?
The google tells me that the Cook Political Report was first published in 1984. As an official old person who has been voting since the 70s, I wonder if Charlie Cook is having difficulty naming and claiming his biases? I know I see the worlds of politics a lot differently now than I did in the mid-80s. Social scientists and sociologists think that our heads and beliefs get a little (or a lot) more brittle with age. It is harder for old peeps to adjust long-held views. So maybe The Cook report needs to get out of the office and go talk with some nonwhite 20 and 30 year olds. Those youngsters all have very different interpretations of politics than I did at that age.
Thanks for doing what you do.
I agree with the thank you part. And I’m old too.😊
I'm an old guy who nearly failed statistics 60 years ago, but 35% who can't name the three branches of government sounds about like the percent who will still vote MAGA as the world burns.
Just examine the “wave” effect just Latino voters alone will have? Enormous!! All across FL, TX, SC, and running up the farm belt including KS, NE, etc? That result alone kicks the result to a 240 to 195 WAVE? Kick in a massive turnout campaign going into effect also among Black voters everywhere? We haven’t seen such movements ethnically and racially? Who can produce any evidence now which rebuts this enormous “wave” alone? Produce it?
Elliot - you used several terms in your opening section – in a single paragraph actually – that I’m not entirely clear on the distinctions. Can you clear these up for me and explain what the different operators are and how they differ?
Raters
Statistical modelers
Quantitative forecasters
Forecasters
Handicappers
And if there are others we might see referenced, please include those.
Thanks!
Raters == handicappers (Cook et al)
Stat modelers == quant forecasters == forecasters (50+1, Economist etc)
The prediction I made 45 days ago was 225-210 (+/- 5) , and I'm sticking with that (betting more on the high side at PredictIt, as I think it will slide upward). We've had 222-213 twice in recent years (once the other way), and that is a tempting point of repose if we eschew the round numbers.