Several comments talk about marketing and politics. I agree that people are influenced a lot by how the message hits them emotionally. Good's killing is an example. She was killed for no reason and because her killer thought he could get away with it. Democrats need to push reining in ICE so they can never get away with killing another American. NEVER AGAIN. One more thing, don't trash ICE vehicles or attack agents. Always make ICE agents be the villains in any interaction with civilians.
Democrats need to demand that ICE officers stop wearing masks, have to have their badges visible whenever they are in public, have body cameras on whenever they are working, and have a minimum of five months of raining, just like most police officers have to have before going on patrol. These are pretty simple pieces of legislation. Add them as amendments to every single piece of legislation, Republicans want, to keep this in front of the American voter. Push reining in ICE so they can never get away with killing another American. Democrats need to keep the message simple and never stop saying that Good's killing was illegal and morally wrong.
Yes, yes YES! We, all of us, respond to pictures in our head. Repubs have gotten the jump on us in this way forever. And when Dems didn't hand them the kind of visuals that Biden's policies created, they recycled old footage, pieced it together, sometimes lied about what was happening, but they lied using visceral language and sold it easily.
Schumer hasn't had a conviction stronger than that he must maintain his own power in decades, maybe ever--I don't remember back that far. Have a moral conviction that helps people, illustrate & articulate it, and you'll have a chance. Shopping it around to consultants and their focus groups is just not the same.
Why can’t we replace Schumer & Jeffries as democratic leaders stat!? They appear to need nudging to do ANYTHING outside of their comfort zones. As leaders they’ve become balls n chains. Can’t we do anything??
It is amazing that Miller and Trump have managed in less than a year to turn immigration into a losing proposition for Republicans. Republicans simply have no response when someone says ICE killed a woman who was an American citizen for no reason. They have no defense and they know it. It was a crime and most people know it. Some things are simply wrong and people know it in their hearts. This is one of those times.
I remember reading a NYT article back in 2023 about how Prominent republicans had been quietly meeting weekly with members of scotus in some random rented office to plan for this. In hindsight it seems like a lot of effort for a party who supposedly didn’t know if they were going to win.
This highlights a deeper strategic failure of Democratic leaders - avoiding the hard work of changing voters' minds (aka persuasion) and emphasizing the safer middle ground issues (price of eggs).
First, you can message more than one issue at a time (not dozens but a few core issues).
Second, persuasion takes time and coordination so you have multiple voices who can reach a broad array of voters pushing messages around the main narratives and do it consistently for months to break through the competing information noise and slowly change minds. Democrats don't seem to understand long term persuasion and, no, $2 billion in campaign ads in the last two months of a Presidential election every four years isn't it.
What continues to frighten me about these number is the high percentage of Republicans who still approve of the conduct. I know it’s probably outside the bounds of this particular forum to ask the “what would it take…” question, but if there is some way to ask it that would be relevant, I’d love to see the answer.
There is a powerful rightwing information ecosystem that constantly pushes an alternative reality where ICE is defending American values against dangerous (brown and black skinned) criminals and extreme Democratic lefties who support them. Also Trump is a golden shining healthy all wise leader who is the only leader standing between loyal Americans and catastrophe.
There are millions who get their worldview from this rightwing media bubble from Fox and social media influencers all working together, now supported by billionaire owners of mainstream media.
There are 25-30% of voters who are completely in this propaganda bubble and will never face the lies they believe.
I’ve heard so much discrepancy from pundits on TV about what percent of the people ICE arrests have committed crimes (other than entering the country illegally). Some insist it’s over 70%. Some insist it’s only 5%. Any idea what the actual number is? This could sway people’s opinions
I don't have a solid number but have read many examples of ICE abducting people who committed no crime and had legal residency in the US or even were citizens and were attacked just because of the color of their skin. The Trump regime lies so often, even directly to judges in court, that they cannot be trusted.
Certainly looks that way doesn’t it? I’m as disappointed as anyone about this and as a policy person am looking for the right solution(s) to advocate. However, doing so seems to require good statistics on what will (and won’t) work. That’s a lot of the reason why I’m here. I enjoy analyzing numbers as much as any other person who shares our “nerd gene” but in the end I want a successful resolution more than anything else.
In my career as a consumer marketing exec I been frustrated for years over the Dems poor communication strategy. We learn early in our marketing career that people respond to emotion not facts. That's very disappointing to people who create products or software or political policy and deeply believe the benefits are so obvious that the public will immediately see how much better these solutions are. But pushing spec sheets or policies fails to persuade. What works is describing the emotional story about the results that benefit the person.
Another classic error of Democratic politicians is to talk about the process instead of the result. Who cares about SB321, or decongestion pricing or improved transit mobility or whatever jargon they use? Those in the legislative process are of course very focused on how to pass effective policies. But politicians and advocates need to tell voters the benefits.
Agree. I have all the respect in the world for Elliott. He’s really trying be an “honest broker” and that’s a very rare commodity in our current toxic environment. I’m a “recovering” organizational strategist/policy wonk and just looking for as many actionable insights as I can get. Good numbers are the lifeblood for that sort of thing.
Well, you both have insights the general public does not. Very much needed! My gestalt is often out of touch with large swaths of public opinion so good to get grounded with Elliott's polls. Seems like many folks want to fight for something (American values) but have misplaced their anger. Best to turn that around to where it's truly justified but that would conflict with the tenants of capitalism, the real American value!
Those of us, who are in favor of abolishing ICE, will probably turn out and vote for Democrats no matter what policy they propose. It might be a good time for Dems to also talk about government spending and debt. Should ICE have a budget many times higher than under the first Trump administration?
Could be, but if there are enough Republican voters more concerned about financial issues than cultural ones, there might be a shift. The only President to balance the budget in recent years was Clinton. And the current administration is increasing spending, while small businesses are getting hurt, health insurance is costing more, and Social Security and Medicare reserves will be gone in about 7 years, resulting in substantial benefit cuts.
Very good analysis! I agree that visuals are impactful. The "message" should certainly be to Reform Immigration Now paired with the brutal videos and photos of ICE at their worst. Contrary to some opinions, the GOP is on the record for repeatedly refusing to consider immigration system policy changes for the last 10-15 years because they said they can win on the issue as it worsens. It's not really a pandemic-Biden problem. Find those statements and interviews and add them to the visual bank to paint the real picture of obstruction, hypocrisy and violence. In turn, who can deny the visceral response the Jan 6 all day siege at the Capitol. These should be shown over and over again to solidify the image of this administration.
The problem for Congressional Democrats was conflating border enforcement and interior removal. FOX News successfully propagandized around massive caravans heading from Mexico towards our southern border, creating widespread fear among FOX viewers and a broader consensus on the need to close our southern border, which was reflected in the compromise Senate bill that Trump blocked early in 2024. But there was never broad support for interior removal, which is why ICE quickly became so unpopular. Unfortunately this distinction was lost on DC Democrats.
Comments here suggest that doing anything about ICE is abolishing ICE. But Murphy and others have called to rein in ICE, not abolish it. I think it’s possible Schumer fears doing something about ICE would prompt Trump to smear the Democrats, saying they want to abolish. But it doesn’t have to be that way, and Democrats can name Stephen Miller more on this. A lot of voters are outraged and will be upset if Schumer does nothing. I’m pretty moderate and have been reticent about leadership but anyone watching Minneapolis can see ICE stomping on the Constitution.
It has always been amazing to me that, when Dems win on messaging, it is almost always because Conservatives have shown their true colors. Imagine what we could do if we were actually working in concert to frame the public debate. Here's my take on how we should be framing this.
I thought that Democrats lost the immigration issue over the last 30 years because they just ignored it. There was a lot of hand-waving and saying “nothing to see here!” Instead, Democrats should have taken the issue seriously and said “Immigration is a problem; and it needs to be managed. Immigrants need to be acclimated into the United States, and that takes resources, so we need to limit the flow of immigrants. But at the same time, immigrants provide many benefits to the United States; they are predominantly young, so they provide a willing labor force to do work many Americans are not willing to do, so they reduce the cost of food and housing and eldercare. And they pay into Social Security to guarantee your retirement benefits. So we need a balanced approach to immigration that manages the flow of immigrants and provides them with a path to citizenship while reaping its benefits.” That’s what Democrats should have been saying over the last 30 years; what they should be saying now is comparable — while some immigrants (very few) may commit crimes and need to be deported, most immigrants are valued members of our communities, who are producing for our economy and should be welcomed (but we still need to manage the flow of immigrants so they can be absorbed into the economy without disruptions).
Abolishing ICE is just uninformed nonsense. There is a substantial role in administrative paperwork that is required and should remain required to process those legally crossing our borders. Removing Federal law enforcement from the role of enforcing immigration is not only justified, but clearly out of control and just another autocratic attempt by unqualified leaders and field agents. There needs to be a more sophisticated discussion of these issues.
I hope you are correct that it is possible to win the Immigration narrative as we try and paint a horrifying picture about current ICE enforcement in the "heads" of the public. However, I find it interesting that you quote from the 1922 book, Public Opinion. In that time period the public pictured painted was used to craft the 1924 Imagination Control Act which set quotas for legal immigration to the US. for many countries, with the notable exception of Latin American and Canada. The number of immigrants was capped to two percent of the number of immigrants present in the US based on the 1890 census. The 1890 census was chosen because that was before the Catholics and Jews from southern and eastern Europe began immigrating to the US in large numbers. The Act was designed to perpetuate the current racial and ethnic makeup of the US and it worked. The percentage of foreign born in the US dropped from 14.7% in 1910 to 5.2% in 1960. (Immigration stats as presented by William Gudelunas at a lecture presented in Feb 2023 at the Rancho Mirage Library https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDrUcBK33AM )
Several comments talk about marketing and politics. I agree that people are influenced a lot by how the message hits them emotionally. Good's killing is an example. She was killed for no reason and because her killer thought he could get away with it. Democrats need to push reining in ICE so they can never get away with killing another American. NEVER AGAIN. One more thing, don't trash ICE vehicles or attack agents. Always make ICE agents be the villains in any interaction with civilians.
Democrats need to demand that ICE officers stop wearing masks, have to have their badges visible whenever they are in public, have body cameras on whenever they are working, and have a minimum of five months of raining, just like most police officers have to have before going on patrol. These are pretty simple pieces of legislation. Add them as amendments to every single piece of legislation, Republicans want, to keep this in front of the American voter. Push reining in ICE so they can never get away with killing another American. Democrats need to keep the message simple and never stop saying that Good's killing was illegal and morally wrong.
Yes, yes YES! We, all of us, respond to pictures in our head. Repubs have gotten the jump on us in this way forever. And when Dems didn't hand them the kind of visuals that Biden's policies created, they recycled old footage, pieced it together, sometimes lied about what was happening, but they lied using visceral language and sold it easily.
Schumer hasn't had a conviction stronger than that he must maintain his own power in decades, maybe ever--I don't remember back that far. Have a moral conviction that helps people, illustrate & articulate it, and you'll have a chance. Shopping it around to consultants and their focus groups is just not the same.
Why can’t we replace Schumer & Jeffries as democratic leaders stat!? They appear to need nudging to do ANYTHING outside of their comfort zones. As leaders they’ve become balls n chains. Can’t we do anything??
It is amazing that Miller and Trump have managed in less than a year to turn immigration into a losing proposition for Republicans. Republicans simply have no response when someone says ICE killed a woman who was an American citizen for no reason. They have no defense and they know it. It was a crime and most people know it. Some things are simply wrong and people know it in their hearts. This is one of those times.
I remember reading a NYT article back in 2023 about how Prominent republicans had been quietly meeting weekly with members of scotus in some random rented office to plan for this. In hindsight it seems like a lot of effort for a party who supposedly didn’t know if they were going to win.
This highlights a deeper strategic failure of Democratic leaders - avoiding the hard work of changing voters' minds (aka persuasion) and emphasizing the safer middle ground issues (price of eggs).
First, you can message more than one issue at a time (not dozens but a few core issues).
Second, persuasion takes time and coordination so you have multiple voices who can reach a broad array of voters pushing messages around the main narratives and do it consistently for months to break through the competing information noise and slowly change minds. Democrats don't seem to understand long term persuasion and, no, $2 billion in campaign ads in the last two months of a Presidential election every four years isn't it.
What continues to frighten me about these number is the high percentage of Republicans who still approve of the conduct. I know it’s probably outside the bounds of this particular forum to ask the “what would it take…” question, but if there is some way to ask it that would be relevant, I’d love to see the answer.
There is a powerful rightwing information ecosystem that constantly pushes an alternative reality where ICE is defending American values against dangerous (brown and black skinned) criminals and extreme Democratic lefties who support them. Also Trump is a golden shining healthy all wise leader who is the only leader standing between loyal Americans and catastrophe.
There are millions who get their worldview from this rightwing media bubble from Fox and social media influencers all working together, now supported by billionaire owners of mainstream media.
There are 25-30% of voters who are completely in this propaganda bubble and will never face the lies they believe.
I’ve heard so much discrepancy from pundits on TV about what percent of the people ICE arrests have committed crimes (other than entering the country illegally). Some insist it’s over 70%. Some insist it’s only 5%. Any idea what the actual number is? This could sway people’s opinions
I don't have a solid number but have read many examples of ICE abducting people who committed no crime and had legal residency in the US or even were citizens and were attacked just because of the color of their skin. The Trump regime lies so often, even directly to judges in court, that they cannot be trusted.
Certainly looks that way doesn’t it? I’m as disappointed as anyone about this and as a policy person am looking for the right solution(s) to advocate. However, doing so seems to require good statistics on what will (and won’t) work. That’s a lot of the reason why I’m here. I enjoy analyzing numbers as much as any other person who shares our “nerd gene” but in the end I want a successful resolution more than anything else.
In my career as a consumer marketing exec I been frustrated for years over the Dems poor communication strategy. We learn early in our marketing career that people respond to emotion not facts. That's very disappointing to people who create products or software or political policy and deeply believe the benefits are so obvious that the public will immediately see how much better these solutions are. But pushing spec sheets or policies fails to persuade. What works is describing the emotional story about the results that benefit the person.
Another classic error of Democratic politicians is to talk about the process instead of the result. Who cares about SB321, or decongestion pricing or improved transit mobility or whatever jargon they use? Those in the legislative process are of course very focused on how to pass effective policies. But politicians and advocates need to tell voters the benefits.
I’m right there with you on all points. Did some marketing myself earlier in my career so I
Hopefully Elliott's polling analysis will help drive the political messaging more and more!
Agree. I have all the respect in the world for Elliott. He’s really trying be an “honest broker” and that’s a very rare commodity in our current toxic environment. I’m a “recovering” organizational strategist/policy wonk and just looking for as many actionable insights as I can get. Good numbers are the lifeblood for that sort of thing.
Well, you both have insights the general public does not. Very much needed! My gestalt is often out of touch with large swaths of public opinion so good to get grounded with Elliott's polls. Seems like many folks want to fight for something (American values) but have misplaced their anger. Best to turn that around to where it's truly justified but that would conflict with the tenants of capitalism, the real American value!
Those of us, who are in favor of abolishing ICE, will probably turn out and vote for Democrats no matter what policy they propose. It might be a good time for Dems to also talk about government spending and debt. Should ICE have a budget many times higher than under the first Trump administration?
You don't think it's a bit risky to try to commandeer a common Republican talking point ("government spending and debt")?
Could be, but if there are enough Republican voters more concerned about financial issues than cultural ones, there might be a shift. The only President to balance the budget in recent years was Clinton. And the current administration is increasing spending, while small businesses are getting hurt, health insurance is costing more, and Social Security and Medicare reserves will be gone in about 7 years, resulting in substantial benefit cuts.
Very good analysis! I agree that visuals are impactful. The "message" should certainly be to Reform Immigration Now paired with the brutal videos and photos of ICE at their worst. Contrary to some opinions, the GOP is on the record for repeatedly refusing to consider immigration system policy changes for the last 10-15 years because they said they can win on the issue as it worsens. It's not really a pandemic-Biden problem. Find those statements and interviews and add them to the visual bank to paint the real picture of obstruction, hypocrisy and violence. In turn, who can deny the visceral response the Jan 6 all day siege at the Capitol. These should be shown over and over again to solidify the image of this administration.
The problem for Congressional Democrats was conflating border enforcement and interior removal. FOX News successfully propagandized around massive caravans heading from Mexico towards our southern border, creating widespread fear among FOX viewers and a broader consensus on the need to close our southern border, which was reflected in the compromise Senate bill that Trump blocked early in 2024. But there was never broad support for interior removal, which is why ICE quickly became so unpopular. Unfortunately this distinction was lost on DC Democrats.
"Unmask Ice"
There, Dems, that's free, take it. Stop cutting checks to dumbass tankies, ffs
I wish every Democrat in leadership read this. Great analysis.
Comments here suggest that doing anything about ICE is abolishing ICE. But Murphy and others have called to rein in ICE, not abolish it. I think it’s possible Schumer fears doing something about ICE would prompt Trump to smear the Democrats, saying they want to abolish. But it doesn’t have to be that way, and Democrats can name Stephen Miller more on this. A lot of voters are outraged and will be upset if Schumer does nothing. I’m pretty moderate and have been reticent about leadership but anyone watching Minneapolis can see ICE stomping on the Constitution.
It has always been amazing to me that, when Dems win on messaging, it is almost always because Conservatives have shown their true colors. Imagine what we could do if we were actually working in concert to frame the public debate. Here's my take on how we should be framing this.
https://open.substack.com/pub/reframingamerica/p/a-call-to-freeze-ice?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=7t9yn
Forgive the pun. It's called "A Call to Freeze ICE."
IMHO #FreezeICE is brilliant. Good slogans are catchy and this certainly is.
I thought that Democrats lost the immigration issue over the last 30 years because they just ignored it. There was a lot of hand-waving and saying “nothing to see here!” Instead, Democrats should have taken the issue seriously and said “Immigration is a problem; and it needs to be managed. Immigrants need to be acclimated into the United States, and that takes resources, so we need to limit the flow of immigrants. But at the same time, immigrants provide many benefits to the United States; they are predominantly young, so they provide a willing labor force to do work many Americans are not willing to do, so they reduce the cost of food and housing and eldercare. And they pay into Social Security to guarantee your retirement benefits. So we need a balanced approach to immigration that manages the flow of immigrants and provides them with a path to citizenship while reaping its benefits.” That’s what Democrats should have been saying over the last 30 years; what they should be saying now is comparable — while some immigrants (very few) may commit crimes and need to be deported, most immigrants are valued members of our communities, who are producing for our economy and should be welcomed (but we still need to manage the flow of immigrants so they can be absorbed into the economy without disruptions).
Abolishing ICE is just uninformed nonsense. There is a substantial role in administrative paperwork that is required and should remain required to process those legally crossing our borders. Removing Federal law enforcement from the role of enforcing immigration is not only justified, but clearly out of control and just another autocratic attempt by unqualified leaders and field agents. There needs to be a more sophisticated discussion of these issues.
I hope you are correct that it is possible to win the Immigration narrative as we try and paint a horrifying picture about current ICE enforcement in the "heads" of the public. However, I find it interesting that you quote from the 1922 book, Public Opinion. In that time period the public pictured painted was used to craft the 1924 Imagination Control Act which set quotas for legal immigration to the US. for many countries, with the notable exception of Latin American and Canada. The number of immigrants was capped to two percent of the number of immigrants present in the US based on the 1890 census. The 1890 census was chosen because that was before the Catholics and Jews from southern and eastern Europe began immigrating to the US in large numbers. The Act was designed to perpetuate the current racial and ethnic makeup of the US and it worked. The percentage of foreign born in the US dropped from 14.7% in 1910 to 5.2% in 1960. (Immigration stats as presented by William Gudelunas at a lecture presented in Feb 2023 at the Rancho Mirage Library https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDrUcBK33AM )