Trump has made ICE a 70-30 issue — for Democrats
By using brutal force in public, ICE has given Democrats a chance to change how voters think about immigration policy. Will they take it?
A certain kind of pundit has been telling Democrats they’re on the wrong side of public opinion on Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Sohrab Ahmari, an editor at the conservative online magazine Unherd, tweeted last week that Democrats are “going all in on a case that’s 70-30 (at best) against” them.
It turns out that Sohrab has it exactly backwards. New polls released this week show U.S. voters breaking between 60 and 70% against the way ICE is enforcing President Donald Trump’s immigration agenda. Polls on things like zip-tying children during raids, detaining U.S. citizens, ICE agents wearing masks, and of course, shooting and killing citizens such as Renee Good show a public that is moving dramatically away from the president.
The conventional wisdom in Washington throughout most of 2025 was that the president had a large edge on immigration, and that it would be a huge strategic error for Democrats to campaign on the issue. That case was wrong, but perhaps arguable, in March and April 2025 (before the polls had so clearly moved away from the president). But new data proves it is irredeemably flawed.
Trump has given Democrats a chance to turn immigration into a 60-40 or even 70-30 issue, favoring them. Will they take it?
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Thanks for putting the strength in Strength In Numbers.
I. This week’s new polls on ICE
Pollsters published a few new surveys this week that are worth taking stock of.
First, YouGov/The Economist polling from January 9-12 found 50% view the shooting as unjustified versus 30% who called it justified — a 20-point margin.
Quinnipiac University released a poll on January 13 showing 57% of voters disapprove of how ICE is enforcing immigration laws, while just 40% approve. Similar to YouGov’s numbers, a majority (53%) said the Good shooting was not justified, versus 35% who said it was.
CNN/SSRS found on January 14 that 51% of Americans say the ICE agent who killed Renee Good in Minneapolis used an “inappropriate use of force” that “reflects bigger problems with ICE operations,” compared to just 26% who said it was appropriate force. Additionally, 51% of adults said enforcement is making cities less safe — not safer. Just 31% think the agency is improving safety.
And in what may be the most striking finding, according to YouGov, a plurality of Americans, registered voters, and independents now say the U.S. should abolish ICE:
II. Competing on an issue by changing the story
As I wrote last week, support for abolishing ICE has surged to its highest level ever recorded. According to Civiqs’ tracking data, 42% of Americans now support getting rid of the agency, while 49% oppose — an 8-point gap. Compare that to January 2025, when the split was 24% support versus 59% oppose, a 35-point margin. Even in 2020, during the peak of racial justice protests and the defund the police movement on the left, net support for abolishing ICE topped out at -17.
Democrats spent 2025 running away from immigration, worried that any association with migration would hurt them with moderates. Apart from a few legislators who spoke up about the kidnapping of Kilmar Abrego Garcia in April 2025, most in the party have completely ceded the rhetorical ground on border security and enforcement.
In his 1922 book Public Opinion, Walter Lippmann argued that citizens don’t respond to the world itself, but to “the pictures in our heads” — the mental images we associate with political concepts. When a voter hears “immigration,” they don’t consult a policy brief. They recall whatever images and stories dominate their mental landscape. For years, that picture was chaos at the border: caravans, asylum seekers, overwhelmed agents. That picture favored Republicans.
With his harsh enforcement tactics, Trump has handed Democrats an opportunity to completely redefine immigration as an issue. His expansion of ICE’s budget powers — and the visceral images of abuse that followed — has changed what “immigration enforcement” means in voters’ minds. The new picture favors Democrats.
When voters think about immigration, they are no longer thinking about asylum seekers and “securing the border.” The new pictures in voters’ heads when they hear “immigration” are masked agents killing Americans, zip-tying children at night, dragging lawful residents kicking and screaming out of their cars, and detaining citizens for refusing to show proof of citizenship to ICE officers asking to see their papers.
Trump has turned what was nominally a bad issue for him (-6 on immigration and -10 on deportations, per my tracking) into a complete shit show in the court of public opinion. The question now is whether Democrats will act on their new leverage.
III. Will Democrats seize this opportunity?
Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) has emerged as a leading voice, announcing legislation that would require ICE agents to obtain warrants for arrests, ban them from wearing masks during enforcement, and limit the use of firearms during civil actions. He addressed protesters outside an ICE office in D.C. on January 13, marking the one-week anniversary of Renee Good’s death. And in a post on X last week, he said Democrats shouldn’t vote for a budget that gives DHS additional funding — functionally calling for a government shutdown over ICE’s budget.
Some Democrats agree with Murphy. Senator Tina Smith (D-Minn.) told reporters that Congress needs to expand oversight of DHS and “rein in ICE.” Congressman Shri Thanedar announced he will introduce the Abolish ICE Act — legislation that would dismantle the agency entirely.
But not every Democrat is on board. Senator Mark Warner (D-Va.) cautioned against using the January 30 funding deadline as leverage, worried about the consequences of another long government shutdown. When asked if he wants to defund DHS/ICE, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer would only say: “I have lots of problems with ICE.”
This puts Democratic leadership squarely at odds with public opinion. (It is no wonder that Chuck Schumer has the worst favorability rating of any politician>)
If you are data-driven about public opinion, the political opportunity now is clear. By expanding ICE’s use of force, Trump has tied together “immigration” and “shooting American citizens.” Democrats can now attack the former without appearing to defend the Biden administration’s record on immigration, and especially asylum. Democrats can attach visceral images of ICE abuse to the word “immigration” in voters’ minds — and in doing so, erode Trump’s advantage on the issue and push back more effectively against his agenda in and out of Congress.
I spent much of 2025 pointing out that political pundits were misreading immigration and effectively ceding ground to Trump. This argument was controversial when I started making it. Now it is undeniable.
I worry that "abolish ICE" will backfire like the (asinine) "defund the police" slogan.
The number of Republicans that support the fascist shit show is still strong.
REFORM ICE, which could mean rewriting their role and restrictions in the ways Senator Murphy suggested, may be more popular with that sliver of "conservatives" that we need in order to peel away Trump's ever so tiny margin of voters with which he won in 2024.
In his recent newsletter, Mike Madrid advises that it’s no longer immigration:
“The Reframe: From Enforcement to Overreach”
“This is the strategic shift that matters: Voters stopped evaluating ICE actions as immigration policy and started evaluating them as federal power deployed violently against communities.”