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ncpack2010's avatar

We see all the national level polling for Trump's approval but I remember in the past during presidential elections there were cases where state level polls were better. Is state level polling showing the same level of Trump approval as national averages?

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Lee Drake's avatar

The NYTimes recently had a focus group with young Trumpers: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/09/25/opinion/focus-group-disapproving-trump-voters.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ok8.bGQM.izd2tcGZox30&smid=nytcore-android-share. Gift link I hope. I find this exchange illuminating in particular:

"

Ten, 20 years ago, in general, younger voters leaned heavily Democratic. In the last couple of years, there’s been some shifting. What do you think might be driving that shift?

"

"Before, being on the left was more edgy. Being on the right now, it’s more edgy. Most people grew up with Obama. Maybe they feel like he just didn’t live up to his promise. And people want to try something on the other side."

Data is not the plural of anecdote, but to what extent does this highlight a weakness with the Democratic party? There has been a push by consultants and other organizations to train Democratic messaging on the persuadable voters of swing states as opposed to their base (I'm thinking of Harry Reid's former CoS but there are many others). Is there any polling/data which evaluates whether voters respond more to an assertive vision vs. an everyone's best friend approach to politics?

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