I have two question that I would love to get a quantitatively informed answer on.
1. Midterm turnout has been distinctly higher in the post 2016 era compared to under Obama. Does the polling data point to this continuing to be the case come 2026? And what may be the underlying reason for this change in off cycle enthusiasm.
2. The majority of incumbents losing competitive primaries for the past several cycles have been from the GOP. Is there data explaining why the democratic party electeds have fared better? How do the number of democrats facing primary challenges in this cycle compare to the GOP primary tea party cycles under obama at the same point in time?
My impression is you don’t include democracy as a polling issue along with things like inflation and immigration. If I’m right about that, why not include threats to democracy as an issue?
Are strong partisans more likely to be basically politically literate than weak ones? Are strong partisans more likely to know who the VP is and their senators and rep are? Ideally I’d like to know the answer to this with the confounding variable of education removed.
Why are people dissatisfied with Trump's economic policies (including strong dissatisfaction with inflation and tariffs), yet still trust the Republican Party's economic policies significantly more than the Democratic Party's?
I'd like to see some polling about basic political literacy such as who was President in 2020, how do people feel about past scandals such as the Comey Letter or Russia collaboration and Hillary's emails. Also I'm interested in who people blame for their state's economy, Is it the President, Congress, or Governor
I know you’ve been writing on which party may take the blame for a shutdown. Does this matter in the long run—say, for the midterms. I have the impression the Democratic base wants a fight from their party, and things like fundraising now might depend on that. Could you talk more about effects of party blame for shutdowns.
There's been a lot of arguing over "moving to the center" and "voters want cooperative candidates". My problem with the discussion is that no one has been able to define this "center" they say voters seek.
What do voters think is the median position? And do different wings of the major parties have different opinions?
Trump has announced a new round of tariffs beginning Oct 1, including pharmaceuticals. And he says he’s considering using tariff money to pay beleaguered farmers. Can polling tell us anything about these two moves?
I'm new to you and trying to understand the context within which you do your polls. Have I understood correctly that you poll within Substack? What are the Substack (political) demographics? What's the risk of an echo chamber?
I wanted to note the charts you had in your recent post showing that the GOP spoke about LGBT and trans issues at a far greater rate than Dems. It has long been my feeling that Dems have allowed themselves to be branded by the negative framing from the GOP on these issues. What is the best approach to combat this framing?
Related to this issue, I have a copy of the October 2022 Decision Magazine published by Billy Graham Evangelistic Association. In it there is an Election Guide with a section comparing the Democratic and Republican party platforms and policies on six key issues, each with a relevant Bible quote. The six issues are Life, Federal Spending, Marriage, Gender, Religious Liberty, and Education/Parental Rights. Looking at this, it is not hard to see who is the group playing identity politics and from whence the culture war cometh.
Christian Nationalism has significant overlap with Evangelical Christianity along with a healthy dose of far right conservative Catholicism. I feel that Dems need to frame a fight against Christian Nationalism, not so much to win over Christian Nationalists but to let non-nationalist Christians, Jews, Muslims etc know that the Dems are stalwart defenders of THEIR religious liberty. Again, I'd like to know your thoughts?
Much has been made of the recent so-called "latinexodus" from Trump in polling and some special elections. Do you believe this is happening? What does 2026 look like if latino voters abandon trump at the rates we're seeing in approval polls?
What will your new Cost of Ruling Index measure, and what would it mean for the incumbent party if both it and the Economic Index are in negative territory?
Ten, 20 years ago, in general, younger voters leaned heavily Democratic. In the last couple of years, there’s been some shifting. What do you think might be driving that shift?
"
"Before, being on the left was more edgy. Being on the right now, it’s more edgy. Most people grew up with Obama. Maybe they feel like he just didn’t live up to his promise. And people want to try something on the other side."
Data is not the plural of anecdote, but to what extent does this highlight a weakness with the Democratic party? There has been a push by consultants and other organizations to train Democratic messaging on the persuadable voters of swing states as opposed to their base (I'm thinking of Harry Reid's former CoS but there are many others). Is there any polling/data which evaluates whether voters respond more to an assertive vision vs. an everyone's best friend approach to politics?
Dems just seem cosy old farts in the main with the rest being too far left or too wokist. Get in contact with ordinary people daily lives take your suits off and stop preaching from the high ground of various hills. Show you are down and dirty in the dudu of daily misery. Walk the walk on the street where the orcs of ICE roam free: no more preaching from oak panelled bunkers.
I have two question that I would love to get a quantitatively informed answer on.
1. Midterm turnout has been distinctly higher in the post 2016 era compared to under Obama. Does the polling data point to this continuing to be the case come 2026? And what may be the underlying reason for this change in off cycle enthusiasm.
2. The majority of incumbents losing competitive primaries for the past several cycles have been from the GOP. Is there data explaining why the democratic party electeds have fared better? How do the number of democrats facing primary challenges in this cycle compare to the GOP primary tea party cycles under obama at the same point in time?
My impression is you don’t include democracy as a polling issue along with things like inflation and immigration. If I’m right about that, why not include threats to democracy as an issue?
Are strong partisans more likely to be basically politically literate than weak ones? Are strong partisans more likely to know who the VP is and their senators and rep are? Ideally I’d like to know the answer to this with the confounding variable of education removed.
Why are people dissatisfied with Trump's economic policies (including strong dissatisfaction with inflation and tariffs), yet still trust the Republican Party's economic policies significantly more than the Democratic Party's?
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-approval-dips-americans-worry-about-economy-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2025-09-23/
I'd like to see some polling about basic political literacy such as who was President in 2020, how do people feel about past scandals such as the Comey Letter or Russia collaboration and Hillary's emails. Also I'm interested in who people blame for their state's economy, Is it the President, Congress, or Governor
I know you’ve been writing on which party may take the blame for a shutdown. Does this matter in the long run—say, for the midterms. I have the impression the Democratic base wants a fight from their party, and things like fundraising now might depend on that. Could you talk more about effects of party blame for shutdowns.
Can you shed some light on what’s going on in the NJ gubernatorial race? The numbers seem to be all over the place
How is Prop 50 currently performing poll-wise in California? What is the expected impact on the midterm elections?
There's been a lot of arguing over "moving to the center" and "voters want cooperative candidates". My problem with the discussion is that no one has been able to define this "center" they say voters seek.
What do voters think is the median position? And do different wings of the major parties have different opinions?
Trump has announced a new round of tariffs beginning Oct 1, including pharmaceuticals. And he says he’s considering using tariff money to pay beleaguered farmers. Can polling tell us anything about these two moves?
I'm new to you and trying to understand the context within which you do your polls. Have I understood correctly that you poll within Substack? What are the Substack (political) demographics? What's the risk of an echo chamber?
Jen —
Our "Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll" is a representative sample of the U.S. population, not a poll of Substack readers
I wanted to note the charts you had in your recent post showing that the GOP spoke about LGBT and trans issues at a far greater rate than Dems. It has long been my feeling that Dems have allowed themselves to be branded by the negative framing from the GOP on these issues. What is the best approach to combat this framing?
Related to this issue, I have a copy of the October 2022 Decision Magazine published by Billy Graham Evangelistic Association. In it there is an Election Guide with a section comparing the Democratic and Republican party platforms and policies on six key issues, each with a relevant Bible quote. The six issues are Life, Federal Spending, Marriage, Gender, Religious Liberty, and Education/Parental Rights. Looking at this, it is not hard to see who is the group playing identity politics and from whence the culture war cometh.
Christian Nationalism has significant overlap with Evangelical Christianity along with a healthy dose of far right conservative Catholicism. I feel that Dems need to frame a fight against Christian Nationalism, not so much to win over Christian Nationalists but to let non-nationalist Christians, Jews, Muslims etc know that the Dems are stalwart defenders of THEIR religious liberty. Again, I'd like to know your thoughts?
What’s your tea leaves reading on the NJ governor race? (Appears to be narrowing)?
Much has been made of the recent so-called "latinexodus" from Trump in polling and some special elections. Do you believe this is happening? What does 2026 look like if latino voters abandon trump at the rates we're seeing in approval polls?
What will your new Cost of Ruling Index measure, and what would it mean for the incumbent party if both it and the Economic Index are in negative territory?
The NYTimes recently had a focus group with young Trumpers: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/09/25/opinion/focus-group-disapproving-trump-voters.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ok8.bGQM.izd2tcGZox30&smid=nytcore-android-share. Gift link I hope. I find this exchange illuminating in particular:
"
Ten, 20 years ago, in general, younger voters leaned heavily Democratic. In the last couple of years, there’s been some shifting. What do you think might be driving that shift?
"
"Before, being on the left was more edgy. Being on the right now, it’s more edgy. Most people grew up with Obama. Maybe they feel like he just didn’t live up to his promise. And people want to try something on the other side."
Data is not the plural of anecdote, but to what extent does this highlight a weakness with the Democratic party? There has been a push by consultants and other organizations to train Democratic messaging on the persuadable voters of swing states as opposed to their base (I'm thinking of Harry Reid's former CoS but there are many others). Is there any polling/data which evaluates whether voters respond more to an assertive vision vs. an everyone's best friend approach to politics?
Dems just seem cosy old farts in the main with the rest being too far left or too wokist. Get in contact with ordinary people daily lives take your suits off and stop preaching from the high ground of various hills. Show you are down and dirty in the dudu of daily misery. Walk the walk on the street where the orcs of ICE roam free: no more preaching from oak panelled bunkers.