Plus: Voters see both parties as out of touch, but for different reasons; Trump hits new low on pocketbook issues; Large majorities oppose ending ACA subsidies and SNAP, support taxing high earners
The two wings of the party, progressive or left-wing and moderate or centrist, need to learn how to work together, which means that neither side gets everything it wants. Biden's first two years would have been more successful than they were without the party infighting in the House (and without Manchin and Sinema in the Senate throwing a monkey wrench into legislation). I am tired of the Democratic circular firing squad. Can we lay off Schumer and focus on the leaders who are out there doing the work? It's far too early to decide who will be leader in the Senate until Democrats have a majority there. It is almost impossible for a minority leader to have much of an impact. Remember that most people were negative about Nancy Pelosi becoming Speaker again in 2018. Based on what I was seeing of her as minority leader, I was of that opinion as well. She became Speaker for the next four years, and she was highly successful. During Schumer's time as majority leader, he pushed through most of Biden's judicial nominees. That is work that flies under the radar, but it is work for which we are grateful.
Entertainment culture breeds a desire for flashy leadership, but charisma alone does not make a good leader. Whether it is in the House or Senate, we need party leadership that can figure out how to do what is needed, and sometimes that is prosaic rather than poetic.
Since Trump descended his escalator in 2016 to start his "royal" presidency, his brand, style and agenda have become increasingly toxic to our democratic traditions. Why GOP leadership have made a compliant deal with this devil is increasingly hard to fathom.
Thankfully, the polling stats are starting to flash a RED alert for the continuing reign of faux King Donald. His agenda; "pay the rich - punish the poor and immigrants" has turned against the GOP. The Epstein vote will accelerate the "off ramp" for many conservative, independent voters and for traditional GOP voters. The tanking markets will seal hi tomb.
Cult voters who stick with Trump even if he "shoots someone on 5th Ave." have already crossed that line to live with his extrajudicial killings in the Caribbean and his sadistic crackdown on immigrants.
We the Independent and Democratic Resistence need to keep pressure on Congress to compromise on subsidies for the ACA, protect SNAP, take back oversight of spending priorities, AND keep up the drumbeat of the deviant twinning of Trump and Epstein no matter how much evidence is redacted or withheld. Follow the "Quack like a duck" principle.
Loved the article this morning, GEM! Question: "Additionally, 42% say they are at least somewhat liberal, which compares to 33% among the whole population."
Can you publish your results for the total %age of Americans who identify as "liberal", "conservative", etc.? I'd like to see what data you find...
More and more, I wonder how to distinguish between moderate and left. I guess polls are letting subjects self-identify and thus determine those descriptives? I’m an older white woman who is probably moderate but would have voted for Mamdani. I tend to favor liberal/left politicians who are more inclusive, like him and AOC. But am put off by some of the regular folks in the liberal/left contingent, such as those who express hostility to voting and the “Democratic establishment” online, or those who do things like interrupt Kamala Harris’s book events. I guess some forms of oppositionality don’t impress me and push me back to moderate.
It's interesting that the things that distance you from identifying as left sound pretty stylistic. They slowed my move away from the so-called "center," too. I see this as fundamental to the Mamdani difference.
Yes, in the poll, it's self-placement. But the meaning of the label in practice is nebulous. Most of the "Dems need to moderate" people change deficients by the day. Utility of the whole question is questionable to me
I no longer have any idea what liberal or conservative mean. As an old 60s liberal, I'm finding it increasingly difficult to figure out if I even know how to align with which group. Just another indication of how screwed up the system is.
Thanks for the belly laugh at that final chart of most importance to Trump: popularity!
He'll be seething anew when he finds out that Barack Obama is 15 points more popular than he is, and even Kamala Harris and Zohran Mamdani are more popular.
I guess that the question for Democrats is whether a shift to the left would shed as many or more voters from the center as it would attract voters from the left.
And also remember that mathematically, you need to attract twice as many voters from the left (while also not driving turnout against you) to make up for each vote from a former Republican.
but that's also assuming that whatever you do to get that vote from a former Republican doesn't alienate or discourage current Democrats, so there's potentially a much higher opportunity cost even though you're chasing fewer votes in total
Yep, the opportunity cost is why it's far better to flip high-likelihood voters in the center. Additionally: 1) trying to turn out your own base often cause symmetrical (if not greater) turn out of the opponent's base, negating your gains 2) the leftist base is extremely geographically disadvantaged and is concentrated in districts that are heavily Democratic already. Winning these districts by 10 more points literally doesn't make a bit of difference in terms of checking Republican power.
Indeed. I'm not sure I understand the claim in this article that moderating isn't a good strategy when it is independents changing their minds that is driving much of the D advantage here, at least if I understand the article. Left-leaning can be a perfectly good description of moderates.
Personal story (anecdotal, but it speaks to the point): A friend described herself as middle-of-the-road, yet from everything I knew about her she was as liberal as me and even to the left in some cases. When I asked her why she identified as middle-of-the-road, she explained that she was conservative when it came to marriage and family (even though I’m pretty sure that she had no problem with gay marriage). There’s a lot to unpack there that I won’t get into; basically she figured that her perspective there evened things out. Overall, my experience tells me that men and women look at “moderate” differently.
My feeling is that the centrist v. progressive debate is a cul de sac that has us going in circles. Too much to get into here!
I think the fact that Bill Kristol is out there calling to abolish DHS should be indicative enough of where the median voter actually wants the Democratic Party to go.
The two wings of the party, progressive or left-wing and moderate or centrist, need to learn how to work together, which means that neither side gets everything it wants. Biden's first two years would have been more successful than they were without the party infighting in the House (and without Manchin and Sinema in the Senate throwing a monkey wrench into legislation). I am tired of the Democratic circular firing squad. Can we lay off Schumer and focus on the leaders who are out there doing the work? It's far too early to decide who will be leader in the Senate until Democrats have a majority there. It is almost impossible for a minority leader to have much of an impact. Remember that most people were negative about Nancy Pelosi becoming Speaker again in 2018. Based on what I was seeing of her as minority leader, I was of that opinion as well. She became Speaker for the next four years, and she was highly successful. During Schumer's time as majority leader, he pushed through most of Biden's judicial nominees. That is work that flies under the radar, but it is work for which we are grateful.
Entertainment culture breeds a desire for flashy leadership, but charisma alone does not make a good leader. Whether it is in the House or Senate, we need party leadership that can figure out how to do what is needed, and sometimes that is prosaic rather than poetic.
I would love to see a regression analysis of the issues to see which really will drive voting behavior.
It would be interesting to have poll numbers/census on the percentage of all voters that can name their one House representative and two Senators.
Too fucking late
Looks like the future of the Democratic Party is with left wing liberals.
Since Trump descended his escalator in 2016 to start his "royal" presidency, his brand, style and agenda have become increasingly toxic to our democratic traditions. Why GOP leadership have made a compliant deal with this devil is increasingly hard to fathom.
Thankfully, the polling stats are starting to flash a RED alert for the continuing reign of faux King Donald. His agenda; "pay the rich - punish the poor and immigrants" has turned against the GOP. The Epstein vote will accelerate the "off ramp" for many conservative, independent voters and for traditional GOP voters. The tanking markets will seal hi tomb.
Cult voters who stick with Trump even if he "shoots someone on 5th Ave." have already crossed that line to live with his extrajudicial killings in the Caribbean and his sadistic crackdown on immigrants.
We the Independent and Democratic Resistence need to keep pressure on Congress to compromise on subsidies for the ACA, protect SNAP, take back oversight of spending priorities, AND keep up the drumbeat of the deviant twinning of Trump and Epstein no matter how much evidence is redacted or withheld. Follow the "Quack like a duck" principle.
Loved the article this morning, GEM! Question: "Additionally, 42% say they are at least somewhat liberal, which compares to 33% among the whole population."
Can you publish your results for the total %age of Americans who identify as "liberal", "conservative", etc.? I'd like to see what data you find...
Our poll is evenly split 33-34-33 liberal, moderate, and conservative by self-identification.
Is this how you designed and ran the poll, or is this reflective of demographic studies of the national electorate writ large?
"What would your ideal political party argue for or believe in?" is such a fun open-ended question. Can't wait to see the analysis.
More and more, I wonder how to distinguish between moderate and left. I guess polls are letting subjects self-identify and thus determine those descriptives? I’m an older white woman who is probably moderate but would have voted for Mamdani. I tend to favor liberal/left politicians who are more inclusive, like him and AOC. But am put off by some of the regular folks in the liberal/left contingent, such as those who express hostility to voting and the “Democratic establishment” online, or those who do things like interrupt Kamala Harris’s book events. I guess some forms of oppositionality don’t impress me and push me back to moderate.
It's interesting that the things that distance you from identifying as left sound pretty stylistic. They slowed my move away from the so-called "center," too. I see this as fundamental to the Mamdani difference.
Yes, in the poll, it's self-placement. But the meaning of the label in practice is nebulous. Most of the "Dems need to moderate" people change deficients by the day. Utility of the whole question is questionable to me
I no longer have any idea what liberal or conservative mean. As an old 60s liberal, I'm finding it increasingly difficult to figure out if I even know how to align with which group. Just another indication of how screwed up the system is.
Thanks for the belly laugh at that final chart of most importance to Trump: popularity!
He'll be seething anew when he finds out that Barack Obama is 15 points more popular than he is, and even Kamala Harris and Zohran Mamdani are more popular.
It's the exact kind of reality check he needs.
Do you really think reality could check Trump?
I think reality already is putting checks and pressures on Trump.
Hopefully enough to wear his tiny little brain and rotten heart out once and for all.
Hope you're right.
Is there any data on what % of registered or likely voters do not know that Republicans control Congress?
not in this poll, but that's a good idea!
I guess that the question for Democrats is whether a shift to the left would shed as many or more voters from the center as it would attract voters from the left.
And also remember that mathematically, you need to attract twice as many voters from the left (while also not driving turnout against you) to make up for each vote from a former Republican.
but that's also assuming that whatever you do to get that vote from a former Republican doesn't alienate or discourage current Democrats, so there's potentially a much higher opportunity cost even though you're chasing fewer votes in total
Yep, the opportunity cost is why it's far better to flip high-likelihood voters in the center. Additionally: 1) trying to turn out your own base often cause symmetrical (if not greater) turn out of the opponent's base, negating your gains 2) the leftist base is extremely geographically disadvantaged and is concentrated in districts that are heavily Democratic already. Winning these districts by 10 more points literally doesn't make a bit of difference in terms of checking Republican power.
Indeed. I'm not sure I understand the claim in this article that moderating isn't a good strategy when it is independents changing their minds that is driving much of the D advantage here, at least if I understand the article. Left-leaning can be a perfectly good description of moderates.
Also, it’s hard to tell what a moderate is.
Personal story (anecdotal, but it speaks to the point): A friend described herself as middle-of-the-road, yet from everything I knew about her she was as liberal as me and even to the left in some cases. When I asked her why she identified as middle-of-the-road, she explained that she was conservative when it came to marriage and family (even though I’m pretty sure that she had no problem with gay marriage). There’s a lot to unpack there that I won’t get into; basically she figured that her perspective there evened things out. Overall, my experience tells me that men and women look at “moderate” differently.
My feeling is that the centrist v. progressive debate is a cul de sac that has us going in circles. Too much to get into here!
I think the fact that Bill Kristol is out there calling to abolish DHS should be indicative enough of where the median voter actually wants the Democratic Party to go.
There’s no one signifier for the median voter, especially when the medians are all over the place.