Mr. G- Just listen to you SiriusXM ch. 127. Your conversation with Joe was reassuring & enlightening. While I am not a data geek, I love to read statistical analysis by one that is reputable. Gathering data, polling, collating, takes work. That, my friend is you! Thank you for digging around. 💙🌊☮️🇺🇸
One thing I would like to see data on: to what extent are 2024's coalitional shifts persisting? It definitely looks like young people are falling away, but what about Hispanic, Asian, and African Americans?
I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t worried about Democrats lagging behind from both ‘06 and ‘18 polling. There’s lots of time till midterms but the rudderlessness of Congressional Democratic leadership is really frustrating, and I worry they wont right the ship fast enough to deliver the majorities we need for after this presidency is over.
A lot of the opinions of the democratic party is based on the constant stream of propaganda being fed to voters from an extensive right wing media capture by Sinclair the oligarchy who have seized control over every major media market. This is why the Meidas network is growing leaps and bounds over as people look for places who aren't lying to them. It's becoming too easy to see through the personal interests running major media outlets and it's just going to get easier.
Democrats need new leadership. These polls make it so clear, if the fecklessness of current leadership didn’t already make it obvious enough. The good news is that I don’t see support for Trump Republicans going up any higher than this, while Democrats are likely still closer to their floor.
The Democrats need specific policies not generalized disagreement with Trump, the Republicans, and a focus on the havoc being wrought by the people who are really running the government (Miller, Vought, Thiel, etc.).
I think the likeliest path is that the Dem leadership does nothing (huge status quo bias in the DNC, even with the new president), and just runs hard against the OBBBA in the midterms
An interesting wrinkle to the party favorability story: Democrats' unfavorability in excess of Republicans' appears to be driven almost entirely by Democratic voters.
For example, in the most recent YouGov survey, each party was roughly 36 points underwater with independents and 85 points underwater with the other party. But Republicans were at +82 with Republican voters, while Democrats were only at +65 with Democratic voters.
Not long ago I was talking to someone who is considering running for office in Iowa as an independent. This person kept citing polls showing a growing number Americans don't like either party and say they want a third-party option. I kept trying to explain that most of those people will not actually be willing to cast a ballot for an independent with no chance of winning.
The question you did not ask, though, is some version of where on the political spectrum would you want that party to be?
Musk might be a good standing for extremely libertarian. But what portion want a progressive vs. a center-left vs. a center-right vs. non-populist far right? Pick who you'd think represents each one.
Everyone wants a party that matches their views perfectly. What do people think their own views are?
Can you include women in your demo breakdown?
Listening to u on Joe Sudabay/ Progress SIRIUSXM now @Michelangelo Signorile
Mr. G- Just listen to you SiriusXM ch. 127. Your conversation with Joe was reassuring & enlightening. While I am not a data geek, I love to read statistical analysis by one that is reputable. Gathering data, polling, collating, takes work. That, my friend is you! Thank you for digging around. 💙🌊☮️🇺🇸
One thing I would like to see data on: to what extent are 2024's coalitional shifts persisting? It definitely looks like young people are falling away, but what about Hispanic, Asian, and African Americans?
Thank you!!
NO WONDER WHY TRUMP AND REPUBLICANS ARE RIGGING ELECTIONS!
I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t worried about Democrats lagging behind from both ‘06 and ‘18 polling. There’s lots of time till midterms but the rudderlessness of Congressional Democratic leadership is really frustrating, and I worry they wont right the ship fast enough to deliver the majorities we need for after this presidency is over.
A lot of the opinions of the democratic party is based on the constant stream of propaganda being fed to voters from an extensive right wing media capture by Sinclair the oligarchy who have seized control over every major media market. This is why the Meidas network is growing leaps and bounds over as people look for places who aren't lying to them. It's becoming too easy to see through the personal interests running major media outlets and it's just going to get easier.
Glad to see the question on where americans get their news from made it in. 12% getting it from Rogan is crazy to me. Almost 1 in 8!
I am puzzled by this headline:
Democrats have an eight-point edge on the House generic ballot
when the next sentence says
Democrats lead the House "generic ballot" 47% to 43%
Then we read this
The Democrats' 4-point margin in our July poll is less than their 8-point margin in June and 6-point margin in May
-------------------------------
Does this mean the eight-point edge headline was meant for June--and maybe even used in June--but mistakenly reused for July?
Yes, this is a typo, fixed in the online version. (You’ve outed me as reusing article templates across poll releases!) Many apologies!
Your new form of polling from today's post is very very difficult for me to follow. Much of it reads backwards to me.
Lesley
Democrats need new leadership. These polls make it so clear, if the fecklessness of current leadership didn’t already make it obvious enough. The good news is that I don’t see support for Trump Republicans going up any higher than this, while Democrats are likely still closer to their floor.
The Democrats need specific policies not generalized disagreement with Trump, the Republicans, and a focus on the havoc being wrought by the people who are really running the government (Miller, Vought, Thiel, etc.).
To win in the midterms? Extremely likely not.
I think the likeliest path is that the Dem leadership does nothing (huge status quo bias in the DNC, even with the new president), and just runs hard against the OBBBA in the midterms
Sadly that’s also what I expect. Not what I want or believe is best for the country.
An interesting wrinkle to the party favorability story: Democrats' unfavorability in excess of Republicans' appears to be driven almost entirely by Democratic voters.
For example, in the most recent YouGov survey, each party was roughly 36 points underwater with independents and 85 points underwater with the other party. But Republicans were at +82 with Republican voters, while Democrats were only at +65 with Democratic voters.
It's actually very similar to the GOP after 2008, just with the parties reversed.
Excited to see how this manifests for the 2028 Dem primary
Not long ago I was talking to someone who is considering running for office in Iowa as an independent. This person kept citing polls showing a growing number Americans don't like either party and say they want a third-party option. I kept trying to explain that most of those people will not actually be willing to cast a ballot for an independent with no chance of winning.
Indeed. Hence the need for ranked choice voting and proportional representation everywhere.
That’s my music!
I’d be curious to see polling re: awareness of / support for these methods.
The question you did not ask, though, is some version of where on the political spectrum would you want that party to be?
Musk might be a good standing for extremely libertarian. But what portion want a progressive vs. a center-left vs. a center-right vs. non-populist far right? Pick who you'd think represents each one.
Everyone wants a party that matches their views perfectly. What do people think their own views are?