New poll: Trump loses ground on immigration; Dems lead 2026 House vote by 8 points
The new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds Democrats start 2026 with their biggest lead yet on the 2026 House vote, while the GOP loses ground on immigration, the economy, and public safety
This article reports results from the January 2026 Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll. You can read our previous poll releases here. Subscribers to Strength In Numbers have access to additional tracking visuals and a full archive of crosstabs here. Anyone can suggest questions for future polls here, or leave them in the comments section below!
Headline poll findings:
Immigration approval declining: Trump’s approval on immigration has dropped to 44% approve / 53% disapprove (net -9), and his deportation policy is at 42% / 54% (net -12). Border security remains his only positive issue at 50% / 46% (net +4). Trump’s numbers on all three have declined since our last poll in October, 2025.
Presidential approval: 40% approve of Trump’s job performance; 58% disapprove (net -18). This is a new low in our tracking. Just 27% of political independents approve of the president’s job performance (63% disapprove).
Generic ballot: Democrats lead Republicans among registered voters 51% to 43%, with 6% of voters undecided.
Democrats trusted on top issues: On the issues Americans rank as most important — prices, health care, and the economy — Democrats hold the advantage over Republicans over which party is seen as “best.”
Venezuela: 45% oppose the military strike; 53% oppose the U.S. temporarily running the country
ACA subsidies: 64% want Congress to restore the expired health insurance subsidies. 57% blame Republicans in Congress or Donald Trump for the coverage gap (26% say Democrats).
Methodology note: Verasight conducted this poll among 1,532 U.S. adult residents from January 14-20, 2026. It has a margin of sampling error of 2.3%. You can download a PDF of the poll results, question wording, and a full methodology statement at the bottom of this page.
Fielding note: Our survey questionnaire was finalized before an officer of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement shot and killed Renee Good in Minneapolis this January, which is why we lack specific questions on ICE. Fielding took place the week after Good was killed.
Trump’s immigration approval is slipping
Donald Trump was elected in part on promises to crack down on illegal immigration, secure the border, and conduct mass deportations. But as his administration enters its second year, voters are souring on his handling of these signature issues.
In recent months, the administration’s aggressive deportation operations have generated significant news coverage, and our poll suggests voters are drawing distinctions between securing the border (which they still broadly support) and the methods being used to remove people already living in the country (which they do not)
Our January poll finds Trump’s approval on immigration at just 44% approve vs. 53% disapprove — a net rating of -9 points. On deportations specifically, the numbers are worse: 42% approve while 54% disapprove (net -12). The president has also lost ground on his handling of crime and public safety, dropping from -1 in October to -9 today.
Border security remains the one area where Trump is above water — 50% approve vs. 46% disapprove (net +4) — but even that cushion has narrowed. On every other immigration-related measure, voters now disapprove of the president’s performance.
Immigration was supposed to be Trump’s political strength heading into 2026. If voters are turning against him on his signature issue, the GOP’s midterm positioning gets considerably harder.
Trump’s overall approval rating in our new survey is 40% approve to 58% disapprove. The net rating of -18 is a new low for the president.
Notably, the president’s approval rating is a net -36 points among political independents, with just 27% approving and a whopping 63% disapproving of his job as president.
Several other trends stand out. Trump’s approval on health care has cratered to 33% approve / 61% disapprove (net -28) — his second-worst issue rating after inflation. The expiration of ACA subsidies on January 1st sent premiums spiking for millions of Americans, and voters appear to be holding the president accountable (more on this below).
Meanwhile, Trump’s ratings on foreign policy and trade — which had recovered somewhat in the fall — have reversed course and are now back near the lows we recorded last spring. The Venezuela intervention, obsession taking control of Greenland, and ongoing tariff disputes are likely culprits in dragging these numbers down.
Democrats hold an eight-point lead on the generic ballot
Among registered voters, Democrats lead the House generic ballot 51% to 43% for Republicans, with 6% undecided. Among those who say they would “definitely” or “very likely” vote, the margin widens to 55% Democratic vs. 42% Republican.
These results are consistent with our prior surveys showing a stable Democratic advantage throughout 2025 and into 2026. The eight-point margin is within the range we’ve measured since the summer — hovering between D+4 and D+8 depending on the month. Democrats maintain a lead that, if realized in November, would be more than sufficient to flip control of the House.
Democrats lead on the issues voters care about most
Powering Democrats’ midterm margin is a feeling that the party would be better able to handle the country’s most pressing issues.
When asked to identify the most important problems facing the country, voters put economic concerns at the top: 53% selected prices/inflation as one of their top three issues, followed by health care (41%) and jobs and the economy (39%).
Here’s where things get interesting for 2026. On these top-ranked issues, voters trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle them:
Prices/inflation: Democrats 44% / Republicans 37%
Health care: Democrats 54% / Republicans 31%
Jobs and the economy: Democrats 43% / Republicans 40%
Here’s the above scatter plot, but in table form:
One question we ask voters each month is to tell us which party they would trust to handle whatever issue they identified as the single most important problem to the country today. In our January poll, 46% of adults said they would trust Democrats most to handle the country’s most pressing issue, while 38% said they’d prefer the Republicans.
The GOP maintain a large advantage on border security (50% to 32%), deportations (45% to 38%), and crime (44% to 38%). But those issues rank lower on voters’ priority lists than other kitchen-table issues.
Voters oppose the Venezuela strike and U.S. occupation
On January 3rd, the United States carried out airstrikes in Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro. We asked voters about this action — the first major U.S. military intervention in Latin America since Panama in 1989.
Support for the military strike that captured Maduro:
Strongly support: 26%
Somewhat support: 16%
Total support: 42%
Somewhat oppose: 16%
Strongly oppose: 29%
Total oppose: 45%
The numbers turn more sharply negative when voters are asked about the aftermath. Trump announced that the U.S. would “run” Venezuela temporarily until a transition government can be established. On that question:
Support for the U.S. temporarily running Venezuela:
Total support: 36%
Total oppose: 53%
Don’t know: 10%
Voters also sided with Congressional authority over executive action. When asked whether the president should have sought Congressional approval before ordering the strike, 53% said yes — the president should have gone to Congress first — while 37% said the president has the authority to act without approval.
One-third of adults report health care costs increasing; most want ACA subsidies restored
Government subsidies that helped lower the cost of health insurance on the ACA marketplace expired on January 1st after Congress failed to extend them. We asked voters whether they had been affected.
Nearly one in three adults (32%) report that they or someone in their household has been affected since the start of 2026:
6% lost coverage entirely
19% saw premiums increase significantly
7% experienced both
When asked who they blame most for the expiration, voters spread responsibility around — but the plurality points to President Trump (32%), followed by Democrats in Congress (26%) and Republicans in Congress (25%).
Regardless of who’s to blame, voters want action. 64% say Congress should restore the subsidies, while just 19% say it should not.
We also asked about single-payer health care. A combined 60% said the United States should “definitely” or “probably” adopt a system where the government provides health insurance for all Americans. Just 26% were opposed.
Voters are deeply negative about the American political system
Finally, we asked voters how they feel about the American political system itself.
The results reveal profound dissatisfaction:
14% say the system “needs to be torn down completely”
63% say it “needs major changes”
19% say it “needs minor changes”
Just 4% say it “does not need any changes”
That means 77% of Americans believe the political system needs major changes or a complete overhaul.
We also asked about voting motivations in 2024. Among those who voted:
28% said their vote was primarily motivated by agreement with their preferred candidate’s priorities
20% said it was primarily to keep the other candidate or party out of power
32% said both equally
The high share of negative partisanship — voting against rather than for — combined with overwhelming dissatisfaction with the system itself paints a portrait of an electorate that is frustrated with its options.
The takeaway
While our previous surveys have been negative for the president and his party, and Trump’s underwater rating will be no surprise to poll-watchers, this month’s poll stands out for what it says about those few issues where the president is not completely underwater. On immigration, deportations, and crime and public safety, Trump has lost significant ground since our previous poll in October 2025.
Meanwhile, Democrats hold leads on prices, health care, and the economy — the three issues voters most frequently cite as the country’s biggest problems.
The generic ballot lands on the high side of our previous estimates at D+8, a margin that would comfortably flip the House if it holds through November. And on the topical questions of the moment — the Venezuela intervention, the ACA subsidy expiration — voters are siding against the administration’s positions. And any incumbent should be nervous when three-quarters of Americans say they want major, disruptive changes to the country’s political system.
In taking in Trump’s bad ratings on most issues, some election handicappers have been quick to note that Democrats are not winning by as large a margin as you’d expect, given the president’s poor position. That’s true, but our poll suggests voters are starting to consolidate around their non-Trump options.
That’s it for this month’s survey. You can download a full topline file, select key crosstabs mentioned in this article, and methodology statement using the link below:
If you have any questions about this poll or the release, please email polling[AT]gelliottmorris.com.
Have a suggestion for next month’s poll? You know what to do!
63% of your polling sample say the political system “needs major changes”. Could a future poll ask what changes they favour? With prompts for things like: get big money out of poltics; restrain Presidential powers and immunities; stop gerrymandering; ranked choice voting; reform Supreme Court.
Thanks for the clarifying data, Mr. Morris. It gives me hope that maybe we can right this ship of state someday.
Keep up the good work!