The new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds Democrats start 2026 with their biggest lead yet on the 2026 House vote, while Trump approval sinks on immigration, deportations, and public safety
Matt Taibbi just published an article in his Substack Racket News, The Politics of Neither, about how both parties, R & D, are rapidly losing the public confidence; that it is no longer true that what hurts R's benefits D's and vice versa. He cites a recent Gallup survey showing the number of Americans who identify as Independent is 'skyrocketing compared to traditional affiliation.' He also mentions the 'reversed economics of the D and R voter bases, i.e. a majority of affluent voters are voting for D's, citing to a February 2023 article 'Polarization of the Rich' in Perspective on Politics published by Cambridge Univ. Press. I would find your take on this interesting. Do you agree with the premise of his article, and if so, why is it happening? BTW, in Matt Stoller's excellent book Goliath in which he traces the history of the American anti-monopoly movement beginning in the late 1800;s, Stoller points out that the D's began to abandon the New Deal and their blue collar base in the 1970's in favor of the professional/managerial class, an early sign of which was Hofstafter's demonization of American populism in the Age of Reform. Which begs another question: have you polled the current relative attractiveness of economic populist policies among D. R's and I's?
Will the estimated average tax refund of $1000 have an effect on how voters see their health cost because of the failure in congress to pass the ACA subsidy? Will the tax refund have very little effect on how people perceive their health cost issue around affordability? What will refunds do to people’s perceptions on costs of groceries, housing, electricity, health care?
Trump saying today that he's never seen China with wind energy / windmills (they're the biggest wind energy producer) - made me wonder: how many Americans think that China has no windmills / no wind energy? How normal / abnormal is the Trump belief here?
I don’t think the question you wrote on single-payer healthcare is particularly informative. The question is all upside (“the government provides health insurance for all Americans”) but does not address potential tradeoffs of adopting single payer (such as higher taxes or spending cuts to other program or more borrowing). If you write questions like this (“do you support or oppose X policy proposal”) with no discussion of tradeoffs or partisan labeling you can get a lot of things to poll well but that’s because you’re taking an inaccurate snapshot of public opinion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquiescence_bias
I’d be interested in seeing a single-payer question (or battery of questions) that include pro and con arguments (of the form “proponents of single-payer say it will deliver X benefits, while opponents say would would bring Y costs”) or partisan labeling of pro/con statements or some qualifier (like “would you favor single-payer even if it meant paying higher taxes”). Or maybe test some messages from elected Ds/Rs or partisan advocacy groups on Medicare for All.
I will avoid commenting on methodology, but I definitely think it’s worth digging into this more to better understand their thinking. 60% for “single payer” seems really high. Is it historically high? If it’s a new question for this poll, are there other similar questions in other older polls to compare? Would it have been 60% if it had been “Medicare for All” instead of “single payer”? I feel the Republicans have done a remarkable job of terrifying the public over Medicare for All. Or maybe they’re finally fed up and willing to take a new approach….
I wish we had better line of sight re: what about the system people think most needs change--e.g., money in politics, unlimited terms, influence of special interest groups...? It's too vague as it stands.
I read that more people are identifying as independents; so I’m wondering if pollsters are oversampling Republicans, which would make Trump look more popular than he is.
Thank you for continuing to break out Border Security from Immigration generally. The Republican accomplishment of convincing people that they are one issue, and that Immigration is nothing but enforcement and protection from immigrants, is an underappreciated reason they've been able to cause so much damage (and is still reflected in Economist/YouGov and many other polls). I think one mechanism that's creating Trump's drop on Immigration in polls over the past month is that Americans have begun to associate the term with deportations and state terror rather than with Border Security at all (which, after all, could easily be seen as part of Foreign Policy in the future).
Maybe a question on that in a future poll? What do you see as the most important element of immigration policy - border security, naturalization/integration, enforcement/deportation, importing skills/students, importing labor force, etc.?
63% of your polling sample say the political system “needs major changes”. Could a future poll ask what changes they favour? With prompts for things like: get big money out of poltics; restrain Presidential powers and immunities; stop gerrymandering; ranked choice voting; reform Supreme Court.
Came to the comments to second this! Would love to know how familiar Americans are with potential options, too. For example, with a response to gerrymandering do they know about PR, multi-member districts, expanding the House, etc. beyond just independent commissions?
Matt Taibbi just published an article in his Substack Racket News, The Politics of Neither, about how both parties, R & D, are rapidly losing the public confidence; that it is no longer true that what hurts R's benefits D's and vice versa. He cites a recent Gallup survey showing the number of Americans who identify as Independent is 'skyrocketing compared to traditional affiliation.' He also mentions the 'reversed economics of the D and R voter bases, i.e. a majority of affluent voters are voting for D's, citing to a February 2023 article 'Polarization of the Rich' in Perspective on Politics published by Cambridge Univ. Press. I would find your take on this interesting. Do you agree with the premise of his article, and if so, why is it happening? BTW, in Matt Stoller's excellent book Goliath in which he traces the history of the American anti-monopoly movement beginning in the late 1800;s, Stoller points out that the D's began to abandon the New Deal and their blue collar base in the 1970's in favor of the professional/managerial class, an early sign of which was Hofstafter's demonization of American populism in the Age of Reform. Which begs another question: have you polled the current relative attractiveness of economic populist policies among D. R's and I's?
I would like to see a comprehensive poll of Republicans to find out it would take for them to withdraw their approval of Trump.
Will the estimated average tax refund of $1000 have an effect on how voters see their health cost because of the failure in congress to pass the ACA subsidy? Will the tax refund have very little effect on how people perceive their health cost issue around affordability? What will refunds do to people’s perceptions on costs of groceries, housing, electricity, health care?
I’m somewhat surprised at the income numbers showing Trump is doing his best numbers among the $100-$150K crowd.
These are the temporarily embarrassed trillionaires.
Trump saying today that he's never seen China with wind energy / windmills (they're the biggest wind energy producer) - made me wonder: how many Americans think that China has no windmills / no wind energy? How normal / abnormal is the Trump belief here?
I don’t think the question you wrote on single-payer healthcare is particularly informative. The question is all upside (“the government provides health insurance for all Americans”) but does not address potential tradeoffs of adopting single payer (such as higher taxes or spending cuts to other program or more borrowing). If you write questions like this (“do you support or oppose X policy proposal”) with no discussion of tradeoffs or partisan labeling you can get a lot of things to poll well but that’s because you’re taking an inaccurate snapshot of public opinion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquiescence_bias
I’d be interested in seeing a single-payer question (or battery of questions) that include pro and con arguments (of the form “proponents of single-payer say it will deliver X benefits, while opponents say would would bring Y costs”) or partisan labeling of pro/con statements or some qualifier (like “would you favor single-payer even if it meant paying higher taxes”). Or maybe test some messages from elected Ds/Rs or partisan advocacy groups on Medicare for All.
I will avoid commenting on methodology, but I definitely think it’s worth digging into this more to better understand their thinking. 60% for “single payer” seems really high. Is it historically high? If it’s a new question for this poll, are there other similar questions in other older polls to compare? Would it have been 60% if it had been “Medicare for All” instead of “single payer”? I feel the Republicans have done a remarkable job of terrifying the public over Medicare for All. Or maybe they’re finally fed up and willing to take a new approach….
I wish we had better line of sight re: what about the system people think most needs change--e.g., money in politics, unlimited terms, influence of special interest groups...? It's too vague as it stands.
I read that more people are identifying as independents; so I’m wondering if pollsters are oversampling Republicans, which would make Trump look more popular than he is.
"Border security": the 4-point uptick in 'support'. Any indication that may be MOE or is it for real, real -- ?
Great news about the House b. What about the Senate?
The Senate is more important. Without a majority there, we can't stop Trump's judicial and executive nominations.
Are we just giving up on this?
Thank you for continuing to break out Border Security from Immigration generally. The Republican accomplishment of convincing people that they are one issue, and that Immigration is nothing but enforcement and protection from immigrants, is an underappreciated reason they've been able to cause so much damage (and is still reflected in Economist/YouGov and many other polls). I think one mechanism that's creating Trump's drop on Immigration in polls over the past month is that Americans have begun to associate the term with deportations and state terror rather than with Border Security at all (which, after all, could easily be seen as part of Foreign Policy in the future).
Maybe a question on that in a future poll? What do you see as the most important element of immigration policy - border security, naturalization/integration, enforcement/deportation, importing skills/students, importing labor force, etc.?
63% of your polling sample say the political system “needs major changes”. Could a future poll ask what changes they favour? With prompts for things like: get big money out of poltics; restrain Presidential powers and immunities; stop gerrymandering; ranked choice voting; reform Supreme Court.
Came to the comments to second this! Would love to know how familiar Americans are with potential options, too. For example, with a response to gerrymandering do they know about PR, multi-member districts, expanding the House, etc. beyond just independent commissions?
They want a permanent Daddy with a bigger ass to kiss
Thanks for the clarifying data, Mr. Morris. It gives me hope that maybe we can right this ship of state someday.
Keep up the good work!
Clearly 40% of American voters are cultists who will support trump no matter what
It is more like 30%. He has not bottomed out on approval yet